Taras Vysotskyi, Ukraine's Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food, stated on Monday that the country has reduced its grain export forecast for the 2026/27 marketing year (July to June) by up to 12% compared to prior projections, citing ongoing Russian assaults on the southern Odesa port hub.

“Our current target is 38 million to 40 million tonnes,” Vysotskyi said. This marks the first official export forecast from Ukraine since Russia escalated attacks in late July, which effectively paralyzed grain shipments from the Odesa ports. These ports are critical to both Ukraine and global agricultural markets.

Before the escalation, Ukraine's agriculture ministry had predicted exports of 43 million tonnes for the current season.

The ministry also noted on Monday that disrupted transport flows could create a storage capacity deficit of 11 million tonnes for grain.