According to Woofun AI, Solana (SOL) network fundamentals are showing strong expansion momentum, with network size surging 124% since early September. However, this long-term bullish signal is encountering a sharp divergence in short-term market sentiment.

Although analysis firm Santiment points out that this growth signals optimistic long-term prospects, institutional investor capital flows are showing signs of capital withdrawal, causing SOL's price to fluctuate under pressure amid the tug-of-war between macroeconomic pressures and technical formations.

From the underlying data perspective, the explosive growth in user activity provides solid logical support for Solana's long-term valuation. Santiment defines "network size" as the number of wallets interacting with the blockchain for the first time. Data shows that since early September, this metric has achieved an astonishing 124% growth, with approximately 1.71 million new wallets joining the network daily. Meanwhile, the number of daily active addresses has also climbed 58% in tandem, meaning approximately 4.27 million unique wallets are interacting on Solana each day.

Santiment emphasizes that historically, networks with larger user bases tend to correspond to higher market capitalizations, and this increase in activity is directly linked to asset value. The firm believes that networks capable of continuously attracting users and possessing practical application value have the potential to achieve higher market capitalizations over time. If Solana can maintain this expansion of its active user base, its network value will ultimately rise accordingly, constituting a strong long-term bullish rationale.

However, the reversal in capital flows and expectations of macroeconomic policy tightening are offsetting the positive fundamentals. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that capital flows into U.S. Solana spot ETFs have reversed significantly. In the week ending September 25, Solana spot ETFs recorded a single-week net inflow of $188.2 million, the second-highest since the product's launch. But inflow momentum then slowed sharply, with the following week's net inflow plummeting to $2.4 million.

More critically, on October 5, 6, and 7, these funds experienced capital outflows for three consecutive trading days totaling $17.7 million, causing SOL to decline 1.6% over the past week. This outflow is not an isolated phenomenon, as Ethereum spot ETFs also experienced six consecutive days of capital outflows before October 6.

At the macroeconomic level, the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes show that most officials support another rate hike before year-end. Although market traders have lowered expectations for an October rate increase, pushing the risk to the remainder of the year, warnings about rising inflation risks remain severe. U.S. inflation data to be released on October 14 will become a key indicator before the Fed's decision on October 28.

Under multiple pressures, SOL's trading price fell to $116.42, with a 24-hour decline of 1.64%. Historical seasonal data and technical formation analysis provide reference for future price movements. According to CryptoRank statistics, since 2020, SOL's average gain in October has been 10.5%, but this is mainly driven by the strong 80.1% rally in October 2023. Excluding this outlier, October's average return is actually negative, with a decline of 1.59%.

Among the six complete Octobers since 2020, SOL has shown a balanced pattern of three gains and three losses, with last October even dropping 10.3%. By comparison, November's historical average gain reaches 15.3%, showing more robust performance.

Despite severe short-term volatility, veteran trader Peter Brandt holds an optimistic view on SOL's weekly chart, noting that a massive "cup-and-handle" pattern is forming below a horizontal resistance line. In technical analysis, once the price breaks through this resistance line, this pattern is typically regarded as a strong signal for continued upward movement, which could become the key variable for breaking through the current macroeconomic suppression.