Recent media reports indicate that since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict in late February, U.S. stockpiles of advanced weapons and ammunition have been depleting rapidly. A warning last month from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) suggested that the current high-intensity military consumption could lead to replenishment cycles for some critical U.S. munitions stocks lasting several years, implying sustained long-term high demand for key raw materials like tungsten.
The tungsten price rally began in 2025, with the domestic price of tungsten concentrate rising from 142,000 yuan per ton to 456,000 yuan per ton by year-end, a cumulative increase of 221%. Entering 2026, domestic tungsten prices accelerated upward, briefly surpassing 1 million yuan per ton in mid-March. However, following the Middle East conflict this February, disruptions to transit through the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy facilities by both sides triggered an unexpected surge in oil prices, exacerbating global fears of stagflation. This led to a reversal in the previously overheated domestic tungsten market, triggering a wave of selling across the industrial chain and increased downstream wait-and-see sentiment.
By May of this year, the domestic price of scheelite concentrate had fallen to a yearly low of 406,000 yuan per ton, down 61% from the March peak. As of May 29, the domestic tungsten price has reached 416,000 yuan per ton, showing initial signs of stabilization and recovery.
Analysis from Guotai Haitong Securities suggests that the recent price decline for tungsten concentrate and APT was driven by the release of earlier inventories, increased scrap tungsten supply, import supplements, and受阻 exports. However, the underlying logic of reduced supply from primary mines remains. With production cuts in smelting, inventory drawdowns, and the initiation of restocking by downstream users with low inventories, tungsten prices are expected to stabilize between June and July. The firm recommends关注 companies with a high proportion of self-owned mining resources and those布局 in mid-to-high-end深加工 products.
A report from CICC points out that considering the growing importance of tungsten's emerging applications and strategic attributes, alongside an unchanged tight supply格局, domestic tungsten prices are有望 to stabilize and recover after the recent sharp decline. The配置 attractiveness of leading global tungsten companies is becoming increasingly prominent.
Relevant Hong Kong-listed companies in the tungsten industry chain include: JIAXIN INTL RES (03858): The company's entire revenue is derived from scheelite concentrate produced at the Bakuta mine. Following the commencement of commercial production and sales in April 2025, it produced 5,008 tons and sold 4,879 tons of scheelite concentrate for the full year. Furthermore, JIAXIN INTL RES recently entered into a non-binding memorandum with PMF to seek mineral resource development opportunities in Kazakhstan. Production is预计 to increase to around 9,000 tons in 2026. With the planned operation of the Phase II tailings project in 2027, the designed annual processing capacity is expected to reach 4.95 million tons per year. Upon full ramp-up, annual production is projected to stabilize at over 13,000 tons.