Political forecasting is inherently risky, often involving unforeseen variables, particularly when it concerns US President Trump. With six months remaining until the US midterm elections, several key factors that could determine the distribution of House and Senate seats in November are emerging. The election outcome may hinge on the following issues:

1. How will the Iran situation develop? This conflict is domestically unpopular in the US and commands significant attention. Since the conflict began, President Trump's approval ratings have hit new lows, while domestic US gasoline prices have reached record highs. This could become a focal point for voters in the first nationwide election since Trump began his second term. Currently, there are no signs of the war ending soon. The longer the conflict persists, the greater the pressure on Republicans—unless Trump achieves a major victory.

2. What direction will oil prices take? This issue is directly linked to the previous one and relates to broader economic concerns, with the core issue being the cost of living. According to AAA, gasoline prices have hit a four-year high, up 40% year-over-year. An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll indicates that about 40% of voters believe their financial situation has worsened since Trump took office, while only 17% feel it has improved. Even if the war ends quickly, experts suggest that price increases and their economic impact could linger for months.

3. Do the Democrats have a clear agenda? Although circumstances favor Democrats in several respects, the party has long struggled to communicate a broadly appealing message beyond "opposing the president." Can they present a vision that attracts voters who may dislike Trump but also distrust Democrats? Senator Chris Van Hollen stated last week, "Democrats need to show what we're fighting for, not just what we're against." A spokesperson mentioned that the more centrist "New Democrats" plan to roll out their own agenda within two weeks. Other factions may follow suit.

4. Who will win the 2026 Democratic primaries? Another variable involves who will emerge as the Democratic standard-bearer this year. In several key primaries, establishment Democrats are facing challenges from populist factions. While moderate, typically pro-business candidates fueled the Democratic wave in 2018, anti-establishment sentiment may now hold greater appeal. Populists scored a significant victory in Maine's Senate primary with Graham Platner. Similar contests are unfolding in Iowa and Michigan, two states critical to determining control of Congress. Will Democrats opt for more "outsiders" or stick with traditional choices? Both paths carry risks.

5. What will Trump do next? As always, the biggest variable remains the president himself and the potential for further upheaval stemming from his agenda before November. Trump's unpredictable style often sparks new controversies, mobilizing both supporters and opponents. Will he help Republicans advance tax cuts, or will he focus on personal grievances and pet projects, such as his ballroom? The only certainty is that new significant variables will emerge between now and November, and which side stands to benefit remains highly uncertain.