Centaline Property Agency's research division reports that the Centa-City Leading Index (CCL) has reached a new three-year high, climbing to 161.13 points last week. This marks a 0.82% increase from the previous week, reversing a two-week losing streak.

The rise occurred during a period when Hong Kong's primary market sales were robust following the end of the World Cup, and a rebound in the stock market boosted overall property sentiment. The index has now surpassed the 161-point threshold for the first time since early September 2023, a span of 153 weeks or nearly three years.

Despite this uptick, the market is showing signs of caution. Analysts note that after more than a year of appreciation, with cumulative gains nearing 20%, secondary market buyers have become more conservative and prudent, leading to slower transaction volumes. This suggests the market may experience some volatile adjustments at elevated levels in the short term.

Looking ahead, several major new developments are scheduled for launch in August, and market response has been enthusiastic. The belief remains that the overall upward direction for prices is unchanged, though the pace of growth is expected to slow. The target for the CCL is set at 165 points, a gap of 3.87 points or 2.40% from the current level. This target may be reached later in the third quarter.

Since the decline in interbank offered rates in May 2025, property prices have found a bottom and begun to recover. This trend was further stimulated by two rate cuts by local banks last year. Compared to the low point of 135.16 points when the HIBOR-based mortgage rate dropped below the cap rate in May last year, the CCL has now accumulated a gain of 19.21%.

In comparison to the pre-budget low of 134.89 points in March 2025, the index has risen by 19.45%. Against the low of 135.86 points recorded before the first rate cut in September 2024, the gain stands at 18.60%. However, it remains 15.79% below the historical peak of 191.34 points seen in August 2021.

The impact from recent new project launches on secondary market prices will begin to be reflected in the CCL data published in early September 2026. These include the release of the first price list for Phase I of the project in Cheung Sha Wan on August 12, the sale of 73 units from a project in Yuen Long on August 15, and the first round of sales for a development in Sheung Shui on August 16.

For the year 2026 to date, the CCL has accumulated an increase of 11.81%. By segment, the CCL Mass is up 11.69%, the CCL for small and medium-sized units has risen 11.62%, and the CCL for large units has gained 12.75%. Regionally, Hong Kong Island leads with a 19.32% increase, followed by Kowloon at 9.47%, the New Territories East at 10.53%, and the New Territories West at 8.18%.