Recent analysis highlights that a significant divergence between confidence in the economic outlook and uncertainty surrounding economic policies is a key factor behind gold's strong performance over the past year and its continued resilience this year. Strategically, gold holdings remain relatively low, even though some concerns exist about potential overbought conditions making it difficult to find buyers for smaller investments. The central issue for investors is how to appropriately allocate their portfolios between market certainty and policy uncertainty. Investors can and should recognize the monetary and fundamental factors driving market gains—especially with further policy easing anticipated by 2026. However, elevated valuations and persistent macroeconomic risks necessitate caution, underscoring the need for portfolio diversification. As shifting geopolitics and U.S. policies influence asset allocation, attention should be directed towards high-quality assets like gold.
In a complex environment where investors face overvaluation, ongoing macro risks, and emerging financial bubbles, the need to build resilient portfolios is particularly urgent. In this context, gold's strategic role remains as important as ever. Its historical ability to provide diversification, mitigate losses during periods of market stress, and perform well even after significant rallies further highlights its value as a core component of long-term investment portfolios. Following an extended rally, with U.S. stock valuations approaching levels seen during the dot-com bubble, even a few instances of missed earnings targets could undermine investor confidence. This, in turn, may lead to reduced leverage—potentially amplifying equity declines—and trigger increased safe-haven demand, particularly for gold. Indeed, during such periods of systemic risk, gold has historically performed exceptionally well, delivering positive returns and reducing overall portfolio losses.
Spot Gold (London Gold): Technically, the daily chart showed a small bullish candle yesterday. The Bollinger Bands are contracting, indicating the price is nearing a directional decision. The KDJ indicator shows a golden cross with momentum, while the MACD fast and slow lines are intertwined. The overall trend remains biased to the upside, with a medium-term staged upward movement. On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are contracting, the KDJ indicator is poised to form a golden cross, and the MACD has formed a death cross. On the hourly chart, the Bollinger Bands are contracting, the KDJ indicator shows a golden cross with momentum, and the MACD lines are intertwined. Short-term prices have corrected as expected. Current focus is on the upward movement. Support levels below are at 5156/5124/5092, while resistance levels above are at 5201/5221/5249.
Shanghai Gold: Resistance above is monitored at 1127/1115, with support below watched at 1154/1165.
Spot Silver (London Silver): The broader trend is wide-range fluctuation, with a medium-term staged downward movement. Short-term prices have corrected as expected. Current focus is on the upward movement. Resistance above is watched at 88.7/91.2, with support below at 84.9/82.6.
Shanghai Silver: The immediate range is observed between 21810-22700, with a broader range between 20980-23470.