Moderna, Inc. closed at USD 133.32, down 23.55%.

MRNA options saw heavy institutional activity, highlighted by a $25.36 million double short call premium-selling combination and a $6.12 million short put trade. Despite the largest displayed trade leaning neutral-to-bearish, total bullish flow reached $156.61 million versus $48.86 million bearish, leaving a net bullish imbalance of $107.74 million and signaling contrarian upside positioning.

>>>Click to claim your commission-free cards before trading!

Options Indicators

MRNA’s implied volatility is 113.20%, and with an IV percentile of 99.60%, current option volatility sits at an extremely elevated level relative to its own historical range, indicating that options are priced expensively. At the same time, the IV/HV ratio of 0.31 suggests implied volatility is running well below realized volatility, highlighting a notable gap between current option pricing and recent actual stock movement. Overall, this is a high-volatility setup in percentile terms, with options still carrying expensive premiums versus their own history.

The Call/Put volume ratio is 0.79.

Large Trades

A call premium-selling combination worth $25.36 million was the largest displayed trade, structured as a same-direction double short call position expiring on August 21, 2026. The trader sold the 65.0 call and the 69.0 call, both of which were already in the money versus the $133.32 reference stock price, and collected a net credit of $25.36 million. This type of structure is best read as a premium-collection, range-bound to mildly bearish stance rather than an outright bullish bet, as the seller is monetizing rich call premium and signaling a view that upside is limited or that volatility is overpriced into that expiry.

A bullish single-leg trade worth $6.12 million also stood out, with 3,000 contracts sold in the 110.0 put expiring on March 19, 2027. With the strike below the current stock price, the put was out of the money at execution, and selling it reflects a moderately bullish posture: the trader is expressing confidence that MRNA can remain above $110 while collecting premium, potentially with a willingness to accumulate shares at a lower effective entry if assigned. Overall, the bulk-order flow was clearly bullish, with total bullish activity of $156.61 million versus bearish activity of $48.86 million, leaving a net bullish imbalance of $107.74 million. The conclusion is that institutional positioning leaned bullish on balance, driven by multiple call-spread buyers and supportive put-selling activity, even though the largest individual displayed trade showed some neutral-to-bearish premium harvesting through short in-the-money calls.

Strategy Reference

For a low assignment probability, a seller could consider the 85.00 put expiring in the next monthly cycle, as it sits far below current price and allows premium collection without aggressive upside exposure; alternatively, a bull put spread such as selling the 110.00 put and buying the 80.00 put in March 2027 reduces margin while aligning with the net bullish flow.