Western Securities has released a research note indicating that cumulative hog shipments from listed producers in the first seven months of the year grew by a single-digit percentage year-on-year. This uptick is attributed to two key factors: first, production capacity among listed hog enterprises remained elevated in 2025, translating into a larger volume of hog output in 2026; second, leading producers have proactively moderated their shipment growth in response to regulatory guidance. Notably, July revenue for these listed firms declined year-on-year, while average selling prices edged higher on a monthly basis. The brokerage recommends seizing the current window to build positions in the hog breeding sector, with a focus on companies demonstrating strong shipment growth visibility and stable operations.

Here are the core takeaways from Western Securities' analysis.

In July 2026, listed hog producers shipped a combined 16.131 million head, up 3.79% year-on-year and 1.54% month-on-month. Among the top-tier players, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Group recorded shipments of 6.661 million, 2.7421 million, and 1.2256 million head, respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of +4.82%, -13.36%, and -5.90%, and month-on-month changes of +6.97%, +6.66%, and -2.30%. The year-on-year decline in New Hope's shipments is attributed to a change in statistical methodology; under a consistent basis, July shipments would have risen 30.01% year-on-year. The sequential uptick in July shipments, both monthly and annually, stems from two factors: hog consumption has passed its seasonal trough, with downstream demand gradually recovering, and the month-on-month rise in average selling prices has bolstered producer sentiment to accelerate shipments.

Cumulative shipments from listed hog producers for January-July 2026 reached 115.6572 million head, up 5.10% year-on-year. This single-digit growth is driven by the same forces: persistently high capacity among listed producers in 2025, leading to larger output in 2026, alongside proactive shipment discipline by leading firms in line with regulatory calls.

In July 2026, listed hog producers generated operating revenue of RMB 19.184 billion, down 22.14% year-on-year but up 12.67% month-on-month. Among the leaders, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Group posted commercial hog sales revenue of RMB 8.897 billion, RMB 3.662 billion, and RMB 1.505 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 23.56%, 24.91%, and 16.48%, and month-on-month increases of 18.63%, 18.97%, and 8.74%. The annual revenue drop is largely due to a sharp year-on-year decline in hog prices, while the monthly rebound reflects a notable recovery in average selling prices combined with higher shipment volumes, driving a solid sequential revenue gain. For the January-July period, cumulative revenue stood at RMB 136.745 billion, down 24.39% year-on-year, weighed down by significantly lower hog prices and subdued shipment growth.

The average selling price for hogs among listed producers in July was RMB 10.88 per kilogram (arithmetic mean), up 13.18% month-on-month but down 26.00% year-on-year. For the top three, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Group achieved prices of RMB 10.64, RMB 10.80, and RMB 10.42 per kilogram, respectively, with monthly increases of 9.80%, 12.27%, and 11.44%, and annual declines of 25.59%, 25.93%, and 27.84%. The year-on-year price softness is tied to ample capacity, keeping prices below last year's levels. The monthly price recovery is supported by two drivers: hogs are entering the consumption peak season with recovering downstream demand, and leading enterprises are deliberately controlling sales volumes to support pricing.

In July, the average shipment weight among listed hog producers was 108.40 kilograms per head, down 2.04% month-on-month but up 0.73% year-on-year. The monthly decline in shipment weight is driven by leading producers actively reducing weights for fattened hogs, while some listed firms have raised the proportion of piglet sales, pulling down the overall average. Among the top players, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Group recorded commercial hog shipment weights of 125.53, 123.65, and 117.85 kilograms per head, respectively, with monthly changes of +1.00%, -0.64%, and -0.13%, and annual changes of -1.98%, +16.99%, and +23.00%. Leading producers are actively curbing short-term hog shipment weights; New Hope's year-on-year weight increase is due to the revised statistical methodology.

Risks to watch include slower-than-expected hog capacity reduction, a sharper-than-projected rise in feed costs, and disease outbreak risks.