On July 29th, the US Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 AM, followed by a monetary policy press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell at 2:30 AM. The market's focus is on the early morning session, with daytime trading expected to remain relatively stable.

The US dollar index turned negative from last night, peaking at 101.6 this week before declining. Concurrently, gold has rebounded from its lows. The dollar is currently trading at 101.26, and a top signal on the 4-hour chart suggests the USD index may continue its downward trend.

Powell is notably hawkish, and retail traders must follow the trend. In simple terms, if the dollar rises during the early morning session, take a short position; if it falls, take a long position. Be mindful of the volatility around the 2:00 AM and 2:30 AM announcements, as the market has often seen a combination of both directions.

Gold Spot Market Analysis

On the chart, gold's rebound high after the dip is at $2404.6, with yesterday's European session high at $2405.5. These are the two resistance levels for the daytime session. Observe the rebound strength and choose to short accordingly. Support is found in the range between the 1-hour lower Bollinger Band at $2401.5 and last night's low at $2401.0. Before breaking this low, prioritize looking for a rebound, as we are now in the second half of the week. The strategy of the market falling early in the week and rising later remains unchanged.

The 1-hour Bollinger upper band is opening upward, suggesting gold will test resistance levels in the Asian session. A pullback from resistance is expected in the European session, followed by another rebound in the evening. For the rest of this week, a break above $2408.2 would signal a reversal, potentially targeting resistance at $2417.8.

Gold Trading Strategy

Current live price is $2404.2.

1. Short on rebound to $2405.0-$2405.5 area, stop loss at $2406.1, target $2403.5-$2402.5.

2. Long at $2402.0, add to long at $2401.5, stop loss at $2400.8, target $2404.0-$2405.5, hold if broken.

3. Conservative setup: Short at $2406.0-$2406.5 area, stop loss at $2407.2, target $2404.0-$2402.0. Long at $2400.1, add to long at $2399.0, stop loss at $2398.0, target $2405.0-$2410.0.

Crude Oil Market Analysis

Yesterday's short position on oil from $82.1 was closed at $80. A long order placed at $78.5 was modified to $78.3, but the price opened at $83.2 in the morning. This position was held for a while before being closed at $82.5. Many traders experience this: they can hold onto losing positions but quickly exit winning ones. This can be managed by setting stop-loss and take-profit orders. The stop-profit at $82.8 was canceled before sleeping, which is a bad habit to correct.

On the chart, yesterday's forecast of a low at $72.5 is now unlikely. The daily Z-shaped indicator has shown a bottom signal. The 4-hour SAR indicator has also turned to a bottom, converging with the 4-hour MA120 support at $78.2. The 4-hour Bollinger lower band is curling upward. For the rest of this week, the priority is to look for long positions above $78.2. If a new weekly low appears, adjust the strategy and follow the trend by shorting.

Today's resistance is at $84.0-$84.5, followed by the $85.7-$86.0 range. The week's opening high is $86.0. Without a solid breakout, shorting at this level is viable. A break above would suggest a trend towards the $89.0 mark. Support is at $80.5 and $79.3. The $78.2 to $77.7 range is treated as this week's key support zone. The suggested strategy is to buy on dips and sell on rallies at resistance levels.

Crude Oil Trading Strategy

Current live price is $82.0.

1. Short on initial rebound to $83.9-$84.5 area, stop loss at $85.1, target $82.5-$81.0.

2. Long on initial decline to $80.7-$80.2 area, stop loss at $79.5, target $83.2-$85.7, hold if broken.

3. Conservative long: $78.3 long, stop loss at $77.5, target $81.0-$83.0. Conservative short: $85.6 short, stop loss at $86.3, target $84.0-$82.0.