Protein and Oilseeds:
On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans rose as the bearish supply-demand report was priced in, with soybean, meal, and oil prices all climbing. The August supply-demand report estimated US soybean harvested area for the 2026/2027 season at 85.8 million acres, up 1.4 million acres from July, while the soybean yield forecast was lowered by 0.3 bushels per acre to 52.7 bushels per acre. US soybean production is now estimated at 4.519 billion bushels, an increase of 0.44 billion bushels from July. The USDA also reported private sales of 244,000 metric tons of US soybeans to China. Domestically, protein meal markets followed the trend but remained subdued, with cautious trading. The bearish supply-demand report has been largely absorbed, and with firm domestic soybean meal demand, prices are expected to maintain a range-bound, slightly bullish trend. Additionally, weather forecasts indicate potential heavy rain or torrential downpours in Northeast China during mid-August, warranting close monitoring of potential impacts on crops.
Oils and Fats:
On Wednesday, BMD palm oil fell after two days of gains, driven by profit-taking. The USDA estimated global palm oil production at 81.441 million metric tons, unchanged from the previous month, with exports at 45.308 million metric tons and ending stocks at 424,000 metric tons, both revised downward from last month. The MPOB maintained its September export duty rate while lowering the reference price, resulting in a slight reduction in final tariffs. Canadian canola rose, following US soybean oil gains in thin trading. The USDA's August supply-demand report estimated global rapeseed production at 98.094 million metric tons, with exports of 7.85 million metric tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase in production but a decline in exports. Domestically, oil prices strengthened, tracking crude oil gains. Spot prices saw localized increases, with most remaining unchanged. The supply-demand report reaffirmed that oilseed supply is ample, while oil inventories show divergence between near-term and long-term trends. Oils are likely to remain range-bound in the short term, with continued attention on the Strait of Hormuz shipping situation and oil consumption patterns.
Live Hogs:
On Wednesday, live hog futures retreated, with the main 2611 contract closing 0.78% lower at 12,035 yuan per metric ton. In the spot market, the national average daily live hog price was 10.84 yuan per kilogram, up 0.04 yuan per kilogram from the previous day, according to Zhuochuang data. In the benchmark delivery area of Henan, the average price was 10.96 yuan per kilogram, up 0.08 yuan per kilogram. Prices were flat in Sichuan, lower in Guangdong, and higher in Liaoning and Shandong. Farmers' willingness to sell was moderate, but the supply of market-ready hogs remains limited, compounded by rainfall in some regions, leading to localized price increases. After recent gains, futures prices have paused and corrected, with market attention now on spot market performance and shifts in sentiment.
Eggs:
On Wednesday, egg futures rebounded, with the main 2610 contract opening flat before rising in afternoon trading, ultimately closing 1.57% higher at 3,878 yuan per 500 kilograms. In the spot market, the national average egg price was 4.66 yuan per jin, up 0.03 yuan per jin from the previous day, according to Zhuochuang data. In production areas, Ningjin shell eggs were at 4.5 yuan per jin, and Heishan brown-shell eggs were at 4.4 yuan per jin, both unchanged. In consumption areas, Puxi brown-shell eggs were at 4.8 yuan per jin, and Guangzhou brown-shell eggs were at 4.95 yuan per jin, also unchanged. Demand varied across end-users, with most traders purchasing on a need-to basis. Prices in consumption markets were mostly stable, with isolated increases. Short-term futures prices are expected to remain volatile. As temperatures gradually drop, demand is recovering and entering the peak season, providing support to spot prices, which could signal the start of a seasonal uptrend. Focus remains on demand changes affecting spot prices and market sentiment in the futures market.
Corn:
On Wednesday, corn continued to trade in a range, with the September contract reducing positions while the weighted contract saw stable positions. On Monday, the September 2609 contract reduced positions by over 80,000 lots, and the weighted contract reduced by about 50,000 lots, with positions stabilizing on Tuesday and Wednesday. Corn prices in Northeast China continued to decline, pressured by abundant and cheaper alternative feed ingredients. In North China, corn prices were broadly stable, with localized fluctuations of 6-10 yuan per metric ton. Following previous price declines, stockpiles have been largely cleared, and recent typhoon-related rainfall in North China this week has supported prices. Dealer shipments have decreased, and arrivals at deep-processing plants remain low, leading some to raise prices, though others adjusted downward based on their own conditions. In consumption areas, market quotes were stable to weaker, with a slight downward shift. Spring corn has begun hitting the market, further boosting supply, while weak terminal livestock profit margins and competition from substitutes continue to erode corn's market share. Without positive catalysts, prices are expected to maintain a weak, range-bound trend. In the futures market, corn prices saw a position-driven rise early this week, supported by policy positives in the wheat market and a stabilizing agricultural complex, with both near-term and deferred contracts trending stronger.