Good morning! The first trading day after the long holiday has arrived. Today also marks the Cold Dew solar term. May everyone hold firm to righteousness and face the chill of heaven and earth without fear! Let us look at the important news together.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard says it will close "illegal channels" in the Strait of Hormuz. According to Xinhua News Agency citing Iran's Fars News Agency on the 7th, Mohammad Reza Naghdi, a senior advisor to the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, stated that a small number of "illegal channels" in the Strait of Hormuz will soon be closed. Naghdi said the Strait of Hormuz is in a closed state and Iran's armed forces have full control over it. He said this situation will continue unless Iran's "legitimate" demands are met.

US military says Iran's claim of "full control" over the Strait of Hormuz is untrue. According to CCTV reports, on October 7 local time, the US Central Command stated that an earlier claim by an Iranian Revolutionary Guard general that "the Strait of Hormuz has been closed" and that the country has "full control" over the strait is untrue. The US Central Command said that currently, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is unimpeded, and various commercial goods and energy supplies, including 20 million barrels of crude oil, are being transported through it. The United States and its regional partners clearly control the strait.

Yemen's Houthi armed group says Saudi Arabia launched 156 attacks in 24 hours. According to CCTV reports, Yahya Saree, the military spokesman for Yemen's Houthi armed group, issued a statement on social media on the 7th saying that over the past 24 hours, Saudi Arabia launched 156 airstrikes and missile attacks on six Yemeni provinces. The statement said the Saudi attacks targeted the capital Sanaa as well as Taiz, Saada, Al Jawf, Marib, and Amran provinces. F-15 and Typhoon fighter jets taking off from Saudi air bases in Khamis Mushait and Taif carried out the airstrikes, while missiles were launched from the direction of Najran and Jazan in southwestern Saudi Arabia. The statement claimed that the latest attacks brought the total number of Saudi airstrikes and missile attacks since the current escalation to 1,798.

Fed September meeting minutes: inflation remains elevated. According to CCTV, on October 7 local time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held from September 15 to 16. The minutes showed that in order to support the Committee's "dual mandate" goals, all members unanimously agreed to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4%. "Most participants judged that further increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate before the end of this year." This means that at the September meeting, most officials still expected at least one more rate hike within the year. At the same time, inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2% target. Participants noted that inflation remains high and that there has not been sufficient progress in reducing inflation in recent months.

IEA member countries agree to accelerate the release of 100 million barrels of oil reserves. According to Xinhua News Agency, the International Energy Agency issued a statement on the 7th saying that its member governments agreed to accelerate the implementation of the oil reserve release plan announced in March this year. If all previously committed but not yet released reserves are put on the market, about 100 million barrels of oil are expected to be released. The statement also said that in response to the current tight supply in the diesel market, its member countries agreed to prioritize the release of diesel where conditions permit. According to the statement, as of now, IEA member countries have released about 325 million barrels of oil in accordance with the collective action plan reached in March this year, with some countries releasing more than previously committed. IEA member countries still hold about 1.1 billion barrels of public emergency oil reserves, including more than 200 million barrels of diesel. If necessary, these reserves can be further used to stabilize market supply. Meanwhile, on the evening of October 7 local time, French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu delivered a speech announcing that France will release 10 million barrels of diesel strategic reserves within the next three months to respond to recent fuel price increases. Lecornu said this batch of diesel was purchased before prices rose sharply and will be put on the market at cost, which is expected to reduce diesel prices at gas stations by 12 to 18 euro cents per liter.

Ukraine's Foreign Ministry: studying "five different ceasefire mechanisms." According to CCTV, on October 7 local time, Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhiy Tykhyi said at a press conference in Kyiv that Ukraine is willing to participate in trilateral peace talks among Ukraine, Russia, and the United States. He said Ukraine hopes the talks can be held in October. Tykhyi also said that Ukraine is willing to participate not only in leader-level meetings but also in trilateral talks at other levels. In addition, he revealed that Ukraine is currently studying "five different ceasefire mechanisms," including a comprehensive, unconditional ceasefire, as well as Black Sea ceasefire proposals put forward by Turkey and Egypt. Ukraine is also studying a proposal involving the energy sector put forward by India, as well as the possibility of an energy ceasefire previously discussed by the United States.

Fed rate hike expectations weigh on precious metals, prices trade weakly in a narrow range. During the National Day holiday, overseas precious metal prices overall maintained a low-level narrow range, with intensified bull-bear competition. London spot gold traded in the range of $4,100 to $4,230 per ounce, and London spot silver traded in the range of $60 to $62 per ounce; COMEX gold futures fluctuated in the range of $4,130 to $4,260 per ounce, while COMEX silver fluctuated narrowly in the range of $59.95 to $62.5 per ounce. Xia Yingying, head of the precious metals and new energy research group at Nanhua Futures, said that although US inflation and employment data have released marginal easing signals, the suppression from long-term high interest rate expectations, the dollar, and US Treasury yields remains. On the capital side, ETF and speculative positions have diverged, the market lacks trend drivers, and price action is mainly range-bound.

Liu Dongbo, a senior analyst at SDIC Futures Research Institute, also said that last Friday's US nonfarm payroll data came in below expectations and the previous value, which briefly pushed gold prices higher before they fell back. However, progress in US-Iran negotiations has been slow, with Iran stating that it will never reopen the Strait of Hormuz unless its conditions are met. There are obvious differences between the two sides' demands, making it difficult to reach an agreement in the short term, and inflationary pressure is hard to dispel. At the same time, Fed officials have maintained a relatively hawkish tone, and under expectations of tightening liquidity, the dollar and US Treasury yields have remained strong, suppressing precious metals performance. Looking ahead, the interest rate outlook will still depend on the direction of the US-Iran situation, US economic data, and Fed officials' statements, and precious metals will temporarily remain in the range-bound pattern seen since the second half of the year.

Xu Xiaxin, an analyst at Funeng Futures, believes that gold prices are currently suppressed by high real interest rates and a strong dollar, but as Fed rate hike expectations ease marginally, valuation pressure on gold has somewhat lessened. Considering that uncertainty over the US-Iran situation remains, inflation expectations may stay high in the short term, while the US economy remains relatively resilient, the Fed's monetary policy may stay relatively tight, suppressing gold prices. Gold prices are expected to continue fluctuating in the short term.

Xia Yingying further stated that downside pressure on gold prices is expected to be limited. Although still suppressed in the short term, the main reason is that the probability of a Fed rate hike in October is low, and the market has already priced in more than three Fed rate hikes before the end of 2027, leaving limited room for further hikes. Therefore, gold price pullbacks can still be viewed as buying opportunities on dips, with attention to key support near the $4,000 per ounce psychological level. However, upward momentum for gold still needs to wait for weakening Fed rate hike expectations, or for negative feedback catalysts in stock, bond, and currency markets. Short-term upward momentum is insufficient, and a range-bound pattern is likely to persist within the year. On risks, Xia Yingying warned that investors need to be alert to repeated fluctuations in the Middle East situation, AI technology stocks returning to strength, rising Fed rate hike expectations, and liquidity risks. Xu Xiaxin added that current US long-term bond yields remain at high levels, which will suppress asset valuations, and there are still tail risks from the US-Iran conflict.