Chinese brokerage stocks are experiencing a broad rally. At the time of writing, CMSC (06099) is up 6.93% to HK$16.21. GF SEC (01776) has risen 5.64% to HK$17.22. DFZQ (03958) has increased 5.23% to HK$6.24. CITIC SEC (06030) is up 4.52% to HK$26.82.
The surge follows news regarding the IPO plans of major domestic memory chip companies, ChangXin and ChangCun. A statistical analysis post-equity penetration shows that Huaan Securities is projected to hold approximately 0.39% of ChangXin Technology post-IPO, while CMSC is expected to hold about 0.75%. Based on a target market valuation range of 2 to 3 trillion yuan, the estimated unrealized gains from these single investments are projected to be 73-113 billion yuan for Huaan and 144-219 billion yuan for CMSC. These figures represent 347-524% and 117-177% of the respective brokerages' profits from last year, indicating a substantial potential contribution.
Analysts note that beyond international operations and wealth management, the growth of science and technology innovation enterprises is expected to deliver significant dividends to brokerages' alternative investment, private equity, and IPO businesses. Some brokerages, benefiting from geographical advantages and forward-looking strategic positioning, are seeing an accelerated release of profits. Market observers suggest focusing on brokerages with stronger attributes in serving the sci-tech innovation sector.