Gold Market Review and Key Views: From September 28 to October 7, London spot gold fell 4.05%, declining 1.13% during the National Day holiday to close at $4,110 per ounce. Domestic AU9999 gold dropped 2.02% in the week before the holiday to 907 yuan per gram. US September nonfarm payrolls slammed on the brakes. Data released by the US Department of Labor on October 2 showed that September nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29,000, far below the market expectation of 90,000, while the prior reading was sharply revised down from 162,000 to 133,000, with July-August revisions totaling a 60,000 reduction. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.2%, above the expected 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% month-over-month, slowing to 3.0% year-over-year, both below expectations.

Rate hike expectations eased, with the market expecting the Federal Reserve to hold steady in October while retaining expectations for a December hike. The September nonfarm report marginally reduced the urgency for the Fed to hike rates consecutively. Combined with recent comments from core officials including New York Fed President Williams and Vice Chair Jefferson, who do not favor consecutive rate hikes, the market has essentially ruled out the possibility of an October hike. CME data shows the probability of keeping rates unchanged in October rose to about 82%, while the probability of holding steady in December is about 20%, with the market still pricing a 25 basis point hike in December as the most likely scenario.

During the National Day holiday, gold prices continued to trade weakly amid volatility, mainly pressured by strengthening US Treasury yields and the US dollar index. Although rate hike expectations have retreated, the 10-year US Treasury yield continues to climb at elevated levels, driven by the convergence of three forces: sticky inflation, fiscal supply pressure, and US economic growth potential. Geopolitically, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have repeatedly flared up, with international oil prices holding near $100 per barrel, continuously pushing up inflation expectations. On the fiscal side, the US Treasury's two expanded buyback operations fell short of expected completion rates, further amplifying selling pressure on the long end. On the economic front, the US September PMI overall maintained resilience, with continued expansion of AI capital expenditure providing strong support to the economy.

On central bank gold purchases, China's central bank set a new three-year high for gold buying in September. According to data disclosed by the People's Bank of China on October 7, as of the end of September 2026, China's gold reserves reached 77.47 million ounces (approximately 2,409.59 tonnes), an increase of 740,000 ounces (approximately 23.02 tonnes) month-over-month, higher than August's single-month increase of 650,000 ounces, marking the seventh consecutive month of expanding purchase scale. This marks the 23rd consecutive month of gold accumulation by China's central bank since it resumed purchases in November 2024. Meanwhile, Russia also stated it will significantly increase gold purchases. Russia's Ministry of Finance announced on October 5 local time that it will raise the country's foreign exchange and gold purchases from October 7 to November 6 to five times the September level, allocating 279.42 billion rubles for this purpose, with average daily purchases of about 12.7 billion rubles. This move reflects the institutional practice of sanctioned countries breaking away from the dollar system and also demonstrates that the global central bank de-dollarization trend will continue.

Looking ahead, US Treasury yields will remain an important short-term factor affecting gold, but the current gold price has fallen to a historically relatively low level near 4,100, and the 4,000 mark below is a stronger support level already validated by the market. The current allocation value of gold has already emerged. On the capital flow side, global gold ETFs have continued to show net inflows during gold's recent pullback, combined with the strong support of global central bank gold purchases, the capital flow outlook for the gold market is positive. In the medium to long term, with the continued deterioration of US fiscal deficits, the difficulty of fundamentally resolving debt problems, and the continuation of central bank gold purchases under the de-dollarization trend, gold's allocation logic as a hedge against dollar credit continues to strengthen. Key signals to watch for gold investment in the coming week: (1) developments in the US-Iran situation; (2) the US September CPI to be released on October 14.

Allocation Tools: Hua'an Gold Series Products. For investors hoping to allocate to gold through public funds, Hua'an Fund has formed a relatively complete gold product matrix: Gold ETF Hua'an (518880): closely tracks domestic gold spot prices, an efficient tool for on-exchange investors to position in gold; Gold ETF Feeder A (000216) / Feeder C (000217) / Feeder I (022653): provides convenient subscription and redemption channels for off-exchange investors, especially those with regular investment and medium-to-long-term allocation needs (Class A is suitable for long-term holding, Class C for short-to-medium-term trading, Class I for short-term trading); Gold Stock ETF Hua'an (159321): focuses on upstream listed companies in the gold industry chain, potentially capturing the elasticity of gold stocks as gold prices rise, suitable for investors seeking higher elasticity in gold assets.

Fund Fee Disclosure: Regarding ETF product subscription/redemption fees, when investors process cash subscription or redemption, the sales institution may charge a certain fee/commission at a rate not exceeding 0.5%, which includes related fees charged by exchanges, registration and settlement institutions, etc. Gold ETF Feeder A (000216): for a single subscription amount M < 1 million, subscription fee rate 0.60%; for a single subscription amount 1 million ≤ M < 3 million, subscription fee rate 0.40%; for a single subscription amount 3 million ≤ M < 5 million, subscription fee rate 0.15%; for a single subscription amount M ≥ 5 million, subscription fee 1,000 yuan per transaction. Redemption: holding period Y < 7 days, redemption fee rate 1.50%; holding period 7 days ≤ Y < 1 year, redemption fee rate 0.10%; holding period Y ≥ 1 year, redemption fee rate 0.00%. Management fee rate 0.50%; custody fee rate 0.10%. Gold ETF Feeder C (000217): subscription fee rate 0.00%. Redemption: holding period Y < 7 days, redemption fee rate 1.50%; holding period 7 days ≤ Y < 30 days, redemption fee rate 0.10%; holding period Y ≥ 30 days, redemption fee rate 0.00%. Management fee rate 0.50%; custody fee rate 0.10%; sales service fee 0.35%. Gold ETF Feeder I (022653): subscription fee rate 0.00%. Redemption: holding period Y < 7 days, redemption fee rate 1.50%; holding period Y ≥ 7 days, redemption fee rate 0.00%. Management fee rate 0.50%; custody fee rate 0.10%; sales service fee 0.10%.

Risk Warning: Investors are advised to pay attention to the specific risks of investing in gold-themed funds, such as the risk of gold market fluctuations, the risk of deviation between fund portfolio returns and domestic gold spot price returns, and the investment risks of the Shanghai Gold Exchange gold spot market. Gold Stock ETF is an equity fund that mainly invests in constituent stocks of the underlying index and alternative constituent stocks, with risk-return characteristics similar to the underlying index. Gold Stock ETF may invest in Hong Kong Stock Connect underlying stocks, which will face exchange rate risk and specific risks arising from differences in investment environment, investment targets, market systems, and trading rules under the Hong Kong Stock Connect mechanism. The fund management company does not guarantee that the above funds will necessarily be profitable, nor does it guarantee minimum returns. Past performance of a fund is not indicative of future results. China's fund industry has a relatively short operating history and cannot reflect all stages of stock market development. Markets carry risks, investment requires caution, and risks are borne by the investor. Before investing in a fund, investors should carefully read fund legal documents such as the Fund Contract and the Prospectus, fully understand the risk-return characteristics of the fund product, and based on understanding the product and listening to the appropriateness opinions of the sales institution, make independent decisions on fund investment according to their own risk tolerance, investment horizon, and investment objectives, and choose suitable fund products. MACD golden cross signals have formed, and these stocks are performing well!