Precious metals have seen a price recovery following a period of sustained selling pressure, but several institutions remain cautious about the durability of this upturn.

In a report issued on Wednesday, commodity strategists at ING, Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, characterized the recent rise more as "buying the dip after recent weakness" rather than a sign of "a material shift in the geopolitical or macroeconomic backdrop." This assessment suggests they do not believe the core conditions that drove the previous major rally in gold and silver have been re-established.

Both gold and silver currently trade significantly below the record highs set earlier this year. That rally spanned all of 2025 and continued into early 2026, with both metals peaking in late January. Spot gold reached a high of $5,589.38 per ounce, while silver touched $121.67 per ounce.

Rising interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar have diminished the appeal of precious metals. Concurrently, the war in Iran has pushed oil prices higher, shifting market focus elsewhere. Patterson and Manthey noted, "While Middle East tensions remain supportive for precious metals, the market is balancing softer U.S. economic data against the inflationary risks from higher energy costs."

The analysts further believe that gold will likely remain highly sensitive to changes in energy markets and U.S. monetary policy expectations, while silver's relative performance could be stronger. If industrial metals continue to advance while safe-haven demand persists, silver has the potential to continue outperforming gold.

They wrote, "Silver’s performance is not only reflecting its safe-haven attributes but is also supported by improving sentiment in the industrial metals space—particularly copper." This indicates that silver's price dynamics are influenced not just by its precious metal status but also by the positive sentiment surrounding industrial commodities.

In contrast, Bank of America holds a more bearish view on gold. In a July 16 report, the bank warned that after posting its worst quarterly performance in 13 years for the quarter ending in June, gold prices still face risks of further weakness.

Bank of America stated, "A death cross signal, elevated net-long positioning, and similarities to historical major tops all increase the risk of a longer and deeper correction." The "death cross" refers to a technical pattern where a short-term moving average (typically the 50-day) falls below a long-term moving average (typically the 200-day).

UBS is similarly not optimistic about short-term opportunities in silver. This week, the bank revised down what it considers an attractive entry range for silver, from around $55 per ounce previously to $48-$50 per ounce.

UBS strategist Dominic Schnider wrote in a July 20 report, "We believe short-term headwinds for silver are likely to persist, as escalating Middle East tensions, rising opportunity costs, and a strong U.S. dollar continue to weigh on investor sentiment. The unfavorable macro environment for silver provides little incentive for investors to add to long positions. With investment demand fragmented, the price of silver has yet to find a firm bottom."

Differing from the cautious stance of banking institutions, Diane Garrett, Executive Chairman and CEO of U.S. gold and silver miner Hycroft Mining, maintained an optimistic long-term outlook for the metals in a Tuesday interview with CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe." She defined the recent pullback as a "normal correction" and stated, "This is not the end of the bull market."

Garrett said, "The fundamentals for commodities remain extremely strong, particularly for gold as it has surpassed U.S. Treasuries as the number one asset class and is becoming a cornerstone of the financial system.... The data is very compelling."

She also offered a positive view on silver. Garrett stated, "The same is true for silver because it is not only a monetary metal but an industrial metal, and it is powering the AI revolution and supercomputers—all of this requires silver, and there is no substitute."

Paul Wong, Managing Partner and Market Strategist at Sprott Inc., suggested that gold is deeply oversold on all meaningful metrics and is likely to form a cyclical bottom before September. He also pointed out that currency debasement is the fundamental driver that pushed gold to new all-time highs.

In an interview with Kitco News, Paul noted that gold prices have historically found support near 90% of the 200-day moving average price—a level that has now been breached significantly—but he sees other reasons supporting a late-summer rebound.

Paul believes that if gold's recent sharp correction is nearing its end, the typical seasonal weakness in summer could actually be viewed as a buying opportunity. "Gold typically bottoms in the summer; on average, the seasonal low is often in early August," he said. "It could be later; last year it was at the Jackson Hole meeting in late August when the market realized the Fed wouldn't hike in the face of inflation. Subsequently, gold rallied from $3,600 to about $4,500 before the crash."

Paul indicated that a similar dynamic could play out again this year. "Sometime in August, whether it's Jackson Hole or an earlier event, or an escalation in the Middle East, or the bond market losing control," he said. "There will be some event, some catalyst that suddenly re-ignites the gold price."