Abstract

TC Energy will announce its second-quarter 2026 results on July 30, 2026, Pre-Market; consensus points to year-over-year growth in revenue and adjusted EPS, with investors watching updates on project execution and cash-flow visibility.

Market Forecast

Consensus projections for the current quarter indicate revenue of 3.74 billion Canadian dollars, up 5.04% year over year, and adjusted EPS of 0.82 Canadian dollars, up 3.88% year over year; EBIT is estimated at 1.78 billion Canadian dollars, implying 4.53% year-over-year growth. No widely used consensus is available for current-quarter gross margin or net margin; the focus remains on steady margin execution and contracted cash flow conversion.

The main operating engine remains the natural gas pipelines business, which is expected to sustain the bulk of consolidated revenue given steady contracted throughput and incremental contributions from approved U.S. expansions. The most promising earnings lever investors are tracking is the power-related exposure tied to Bruce Power and the company’s energy activities; the energy segment generated 211.00 million Canadian dollars of revenue last quarter, and while a clean year-over-year figure was not disclosed, long-duration contracts and capacity additions frame a constructive path.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, TC Energy delivered revenue of 3.86 billion Canadian dollars (up 6.57% year over year), a gross profit margin of 71.25%, net profit attributable to the parent company of 927.00 million Canadian dollars, a net profit margin of 24.01%, and adjusted EPS of 0.99 Canadian dollars (up 4.21% year over year). The company exceeded EBIT expectations, reporting 2.37 billion Canadian dollars versus a 2.17 billion Canadian dollars consensus, reflecting resilient operations and cost discipline. By business, natural gas pipelines contributed 3.65 billion Canadian dollars in revenue and remained the core cash generator, while the energy segment produced 211.00 million Canadian dollars, reinforcing a diversified earnings profile.

Current Quarter Outlook

Natural Gas Pipelines: Stable utilization, incremental growth from sanctioned expansions

For the current quarter, investors expect the natural gas pipelines to continue anchoring consolidated cash flows with a contracted revenue profile and disciplined operating cost control. Recently sanctioned capacity projects such as the Appalachia Supply initiative and the approved Columbia Gas expansion are key to the medium-term uplift, with near-term effects seen in work-in-progress metrics and staged in-service milestones. While the full revenue contribution from these expansions is typically back-half or multi-quarter weighted, the second quarter is a critical checkpoint for execution updates, permitting progress, and early commissioning where relevant. Commercial momentum, reflected in firm transportation demand and re-contracting at attractive terms, helps sustain a robust gross margin mix for the segment. Given the 71.25% gross margin in the prior quarter, markets are watching for stability rather than step-change expansion, consistent with the contract-driven nature of pipeline economics.

Power-Linked Cash Flows and Energy Segment: Bruce Power visibility and revenue durability

The company’s power-linked cash flow exposure, anchored by its stake in Bruce Power, is drawing heightened investor attention as a complementary growth vector to pipelines. Analysts have highlighted that Bruce Power’s operational efficiency and contracted revenue structure provide long-duration cash flow visibility, with policy and structural demand drivers framing a supportive backdrop for capital returns over time. For the quarter at hand, updates on availability, scheduled refueling cycles, and any incremental capacity or life-extension work are top-of-mind because they can create quarter-to-quarter variability that nets out positively over a multi-year horizon. The energy segment reported 211.00 million Canadian dollars in revenue last quarter; while the year-over-year comparison for this sub-segment was not disclosed, investors interpret capacity and contract updates as the more relevant signals for future earnings power. Management’s commentary on the cadence of cash distributions tied to this asset mix will be closely parsed for its implications on debt metrics, dividend safety, and funding of the expansion backlog.

Near‑term Stock Drivers: Project execution, funding clarity, and cost of capital

The stock’s reaction this quarter is likely to hinge on qualitative and quantitative updates around sanctioned project timelines, capital spending discipline, and de‑risking milestones. Markets will look for confirmation that recent capacity projects are progressing on schedule and within budget, preserving expected returns and preventing any out-year slippage in EBITDA ramp. Funding clarity also matters: commentary about ongoing or potential portfolio actions—such as partial monetization of non-core stakes or regional pipeline interests—could influence perceptions of leverage trajectory, interest expense run-rate, and flexibility to self-fund growth. With last quarter’s net margin at 24.01% and adjusted EPS up 4.21% year over year, investors expect stability rather than volatility; therefore, incremental news on operating costs, maintenance schedules, or one-time items will be scrutinized for their impact on run-rate EPS. Finally, currency translation can subtly affect reported figures for U.S.-traded shares, and updates on interest-rate hedging, debt maturities, and refinancing outcomes will help refine expectations for net finance costs into the back half of the year.

Analyst Opinions

The balance of published views in the last six months is tilted to the bullish side. Among the prominent institutions commenting recently, five signaled a constructive stance, while explicitly bearish calls were absent, resulting in a bullish-to-bearish ratio of 5 to 0. The positive cohort includes RBC, J.P. Morgan, BMO Capital Markets, Barclays, and CIBC, with the collective emphasis on the durability of contracted cash flows, long-lived growth projects, and the strengthening visibility around earnings and EBITDA compounding.

RBC’s outlook highlights two reinforcing pillars for the equity story this quarter. First, sanctioned pipeline capacity additions, including the recently green‑lit Appalachia Supply project and an approved Columbia Gas expansion, extend growth visibility by mapping incremental EBITDA into the later stages of the decade. That forward map reduces execution uncertainty, because a meaningful portion of aggregate growth is now locked in through clear project scopes, customer commitments, and permittable footprints. Second, RBC points to the power-linked exposure—particularly the equity stake in Bruce Power—as an underappreciated source of value that complements the pipeline platform’s stability. From a near-term perspective, the brokerage expects steady operations and measured progress updates, rather than a reliance on outsized one-off catalysts, to anchor the print and guide the stock reaction.

J.P. Morgan’s Buy view underscores the appeal of contracted revenue streams and progress in advancing the growth backlog. The firm’s stance suggests that with the current-quarter consensus calling for revenue of 3.74 billion Canadian dollars, up 5.04% year over year, and adjusted EPS of 0.82 Canadian dollars, up 3.88% year over year, the setup is supported by improving project visibility and predictable cash conversion. J.P. Morgan’s emphasis on execution at scale resonates with investors who prioritize consistency in returns on invested capital and confidence in capex-to-EBITDA conversion. As long as the second-quarter update shows projects tracking to plan without cost creep, the broker expects limited pressure on the multiple and growing headroom for deleveraging.

BMO Capital Markets maintains a positive stance, focusing on the alignment between incremental project sanctions and capital allocation discipline. In the firm’s view, the company’s ability to secure high-certainty, capacity-backed opportunities—while avoiding speculative development—is integral to preserving the quality of future cash flows. Against consensus estimates of an EBIT increase to roughly 1.78 billion Canadian dollars this quarter, up 4.53% year over year, BMO expects quarter-on-quarter comparisons to matter less than year-over-year progress and backlog-to-EBITDA conversion milestones. The broker also notes that moderate year-over-year EPS growth, if paired with confirmation of budget adherence and cadence of in-service schedules, should be sufficient to extend the recent re-rating trend.

Barclays’ Buy rating adds another layer to the bullish majority, connecting the dots between contracted pipeline throughput and the optionality to monetize or recycle capital from non-core assets when valuation conditions are favorable. For the print itself, Barclays is focused on signs that operating leverage remains intact—namely, that the 71.25% gross margin from last quarter proves durable amid routine maintenance. On the call, the firm expects management to reaffirm a trajectory of steady EBITDA and cash flow growth, which, when combined with funding flexibility, can mitigate concerns about sensitivity to interest rates in the current environment. Any positive color on Mexican or U.S. regional asset optimization, even if only exploratory, would further support the thesis of balance-sheet resilience.

CIBC’s constructive view rounds out the majority, highlighting that the shares can sustain momentum if execution remains predictable and if the power-linked cash flows keep delivering steady distributions. The firm’s framework ties near-term share performance to the credibility of the growth plan rather than to short-term commodity or macro variables. In practice, that means investors will key off updated project milestones, progress on regulatory clearances where applicable, and cadence of spend relative to plan. If the quarter confirms that the company is on track operationally—without adverse cost surprises—CIBC sees room for sentiment to improve as the market continues to appreciate the value of the long-duration assets.

Synthesizing the bullish majority, the case for this quarter is straightforward. Consensus foresees measured but positive growth—revenue up 5.04% year over year and adjusted EPS up 3.88% year over year—backed by highly visible, contracted assets and a slate of sanctioned expansions that extend the earnings runway. On the qualitative side, investors will look for management to demonstrate continued control over project costs and schedules, articulate any incremental monetization avenues that support funding and leverage targets, and provide constructive updates on Bruce Power’s operating cadence and planned work. If these elements come together as the bullish institutions expect, the result should be a print and call that reinforce confidence in the multi-quarter compounding path, even in the absence of large upside surprises.