As nickel prices pull back from recent highs, market attention has quickly shifted to the demand side.

Changjiang spot 1# nickel is currently averaging 131,550 yuan per ton, down 1,100 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. While a price decline would typically stimulate downstream restocking, the reality is showing divergence: on one side, stainless steel smelting provides rigid support for nickel pig iron and electrolytic nickel; on the other, battery-grade nickel sulfate is quoted flat at 31,650 yuan per ton, reflecting a wait-and-see attitude from the new energy sector. Nickel's demand is playing out as a quiet tug-of-war between two tracks.

Compared with the spot market, futures declines are shallower, with the spot premium over futures remaining around 400 yuan per ton. The average price for Changjiang comprehensive electrolytic nickel (plate form) is 132,250 yuan per ton, roughly 700 yuan higher than Changjiang spot 1# nickel. The widening price spread between different delivery products shows that physical demand continues to underpin prices.

From a consumption structure perspective, stainless steel accounts for the majority of nickel's end-use. Its production schedule has a decisive pull on raw material prices, which is the root reason nickel prices retain resilience during the correction.

According to a July 29 report from the CCMN platform, the average price for nickel sulfate on that day was 33,100 yuan per ton, and battery-grade nickel sulfate was 31,650 yuan per ton, both unchanged from the previous day. Cobalt chloride at 39,300 yuan per ton also saw no fluctuation. The sideways movement in battery material quotes indicates that procurement by ternary precursor companies remains restrained, and end-user order growth has yet to transmit to the nickel salt segment. The intraday fluctuation range for nickel sulfate reached 2,400 yuan per ton, yet it still closed flat, further confirming cautious downstream buying.

On the stainless steel side, as the dominant consumer of nickel, its capacity to absorb raw materials provides a bottom for nickel prices. The price decline also frees up cost room for stainless steel mills, with some seeing improved profit expectations.

Shanghai nickel hit an intraday low of 128,850 yuan per ton, down about 2,700 yuan from yesterday's settlement, before narrowing losses to 400 yuan by the close. Bulls and bears remain deadlocked ahead of demand verification. Spot prices maintain a premium of about 400 yuan per ton over Shanghai nickel futures. The average for Changjiang comprehensive electrolytic nickel (plate form) at 132,250 yuan per ton, down 750 yuan, also confirms that spot market absorption is stronger than the futures market.

It is worth noting that nickel pig iron, as the primary raw material for stainless steel, and its substitution relationship with electrolytic nickel give mills more buffer room in raw material procurement, thereby weakening the upside elasticity of a single nickel price trend.

The tug-of-war between the two demand tracks ensures that the nickel market lacks a clear short-term direction. The support effect from stainless steel helps defend the lower price range, while the sluggishness of battery nickel suppresses upward momentum.

On the capital front, Shanghai nickel has seen continuous trading volume of 194,922 lots, with open interest at 182,102 lots. The high open interest reflects unresolved long-short confrontation. From a longer-term perspective, nickel's repeated fluctuations around the 130,000 yuan mark represent a two-way wait for supply increases and demand verification. Before signals of stainless steel production schedules and battery nickel volume growth become clear, box-range consolidation is likely the main theme.

If ternary battery production accelerates later and nickel sulfate quotes break out of their sideways pattern, nickel's demand structure will rebalance. For the industrial chain, the dual-track situation calls for a range-trading approach. Blindly chasing rallies or selling off risks getting squeezed from both ends.

Going forward, key focus points will be the production plans of stainless steel mills and the timing of volume growth in battery-grade nickel sulfate transactions. The rhythm difference between the two will determine whether nickel prices stabilize above 130,000 yuan or test support at the lower end of the range.

CCMN Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals News