Bank of America Securities has released a research report raising the H-share target price of COSCO SHIP ENGY (01138) by 16.3%, from HK$21.5 to HK$25, while maintaining a "Buy" rating; the A-share target price of Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co.,Ltd. (600026.SH) was raised from RMB 28 to RMB 30.
The report noted that increased oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East have driven tanker freight rates to historic highs, pushing the company's earnings and dividend capacity far beyond market expectations.
The report forecasts that the company's earnings per share for 2026 to 2027 will exceed market consensus by 20%, with dividend yields expected to reach 7.7% and 9.2% respectively over the same period.
Additionally, the bank expects the company's third-quarter net profit to reach RMB 3.6 billion, up 50% quarter-on-quarter; fourth-quarter net profit could reach RMB 6.3 billion, up 75% quarter-on-quarter, benefiting from a recovery in international shipping volumes and a sharp quarter-on-quarter rise in freight rates.
The bank significantly raised its earnings per share forecasts for 2026 to 2028 to HK$3.03, HK$3.66, and HK$1.50 to reflect surging freight rates. The new target price reflects an average return on equity of 18.8% for 2027 to 2028; the main catalysts are strong fourth-quarter results and attractive dividends.