The development logic of the photovoltaic (PV) industry is accelerating its transformation.
The "15th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development" (referred to as the "Plan"), jointly issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration, proposes that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, China's renewable energy will enter a new development stage of expanding capacity and improving quality, achieving reliable substitution. Officials from these departments stated that reliable substitution means adhering to the principle of establishing the new before abolishing the old, and further promoting renewable energy to "stand up" and "become reliable," gradually achieving a safe and reliable substitution for traditional energy sources.
"This formulation marks a fundamental change in the development logic of renewable energy like photovoltaics," said Wang Tieshan, director of the Industrial Development and Investment Research Center at Xi'an Polytechnic University. In the past, the PV industry focused on installed capacity and power generation. In the future, the focus will be on whether this electricity can be relied upon to support the grid when it is most needed. The industry's development logic is rapidly shifting from "scale expansion" to "reliable substitution."
Over the past few years, the PV industry has been in a period of deep adjustment. Industry insiders note that the competition previously centered on who could build production capacity faster and ship larger volumes. Now, the competition revolves around technology reserves, system capabilities, and lifecycle services.
The Plan sets a target: by 2030, the national average credible output of wind and solar power will reach 8% (approximately 11% for wind, 6% for solar). The share of wind and solar power during peak evening hours in summer and winter will exceed 20%. During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, the newly added reliable peak-shaving capacity of renewable energy will be over 300 GW. Officials stated that by then, China's power generation structure will feature "half non-fossil, nearly half renewable, and 30% new energy."
The Plan also specifies that the credible output of newly built centralized wind and solar power stations should not be less than 10%, and projects with conditions are encouraged to exceed 20%. "This requirement forces PV power stations to equip systemic capabilities such as energy storage, intelligent dispatch, and power forecasting," said Qu Fang, an investment advisor at Wanlian Securities. The goal of reliable substitution will drive the PV industry's transformation from "being able to generate power" to "standing up and being reliable." Companies with the ability to build system-friendly power stations and deeply integrate with energy storage will gain a first-mover advantage.
Leading enterprises are accelerating the reconstruction of their innovation logic. For instance, LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. recently released multiple innovative achievements, including ACM (Alloy Composite Matrix) technology, building the company's "technology forest." Sungrow Power Supply Co., Ltd. is shifting its competitive focus from single-point hardware competition to overall station system capabilities.
"The traditional decentralized and superimposed architecture has approached its performance boundary. Only through innovation at the underlying system architecture can we upgrade photovoltaics from an intermittent supplementary power source to a controllable main power source," said Zhang Xianli, Vice President of Sungrow and President of its Ground PV Business Unit.
Beyond power consumption, the Plan opens up a broader development space for the industry. It sets a clear quantitative target: by 2030, the total scale of non-electric renewable energy utilization will increase by 1.5 times compared to 2025, equivalent to approximately 150 million tons of standard coal. According to official data, non-electric renewable energy utilization currently accounts for only about 1% of China's energy consumption. This leaves significant room for growth compared to the deep decarbonization demands for fuel, raw materials, and heat in key industries such as industry, transportation, and construction.
"Expanding non-electric utilization pathways is an important direction for breaking the bottleneck of new energy power consumption. At the same time, the explosive growth of AI computing power is creating entirely new electricity demand," Qu Fang noted. The consumption space for photovoltaics is rapidly expanding, and the trend of integrating solar with storage will continue to deepen.
Previously, the competitive logic for PV companies was relatively simple, focusing on component power, shipment volume, and per-watt cost. Now, the opening of consumption space means the destination of PV electricity is no longer limited to the grid. Non-electric utilization directions and the explosive growth of AI computing power are creating new electricity demand scenarios. Qu Fang believes this change will have a structural impact on industry competition, with the dimensions of competition comprehensively upgrading.
Some leading enterprises are already accelerating their布局. For example, LONGi Green Energy has launched a "Full-Stack LONGi" integrated solar-storage solution. TBEA Co., Ltd. is also continuously increasing R&D investment, focusing on large-scale Gobi Desert, desert, and barren land base construction and core technologies for solar-storage integration, perfecting its "source-grid-load-storage" integrated solution.
"Grid-forming technology was originally a bonus item, but during the entire '15th Five-Year Plan' period, it will become a mandatory option," said Zhou Hongwei, General Manager of TBEA Xi'an Electric Technology Co., Ltd. The dimensions of industry competition will move away from single-device competition and upgrade to comprehensive competition in full-system solutions.
Sina Finance APP
Responsibility Editor: Tu Xinyi