CSC Recommends Continued Focus on Gas Turbine Sector, Highlights Semiconductor Equipment Self-Sufficiency Amid US MATCH Act Proposal

Deep News
Apr 08

CSC Securities Research has released a sector analysis covering several key industries.

Humanoid Robots: Recent comments from Elon Musk indicate that the Optimus project remains on track. Subsequent product releases and mass production scaling deserve close attention. Although Optimus V3 was not launched in Q1, the project is progressing steadily. Combined with Tesla's recent robotics hiring announcements, project development is expected to deepen, bringing the Optimus mass production timeline closer. With Optimus V3 currently in a pre-release phase, future product launches and production scaling are key areas to watch. Domestic robotics firms like Unitree are advancing their IPOs. These companies, with their high-value products and proximity to end customers, hold significant positions in the supply chain and possess strong brand power, suggesting potential for valuation reassessment. Investors are advised to monitor the related supply chain. The robotics sector is gradually entering a favorable allocation period, with both the Unitree IPO and Tesla's V3 developments poised for progress.

AIDC Power Generation Equipment: Jereh Group has secured consecutive large orders, indicating a clear upward trend in industry pricing. Following orders worth $200 million in November and December 2025, and orders of $106 million, $182 million, and $340 million in January, February, and March 2026 respectively, the company has secured a sixth order valued at $301 million. This order is also for AIDC equipment, with delivery scheduled before the end of 2027. Year-to-date order intake has reached $929 million, with a substantial pipeline of意向 orders remaining. Due to tight supply-demand dynamics, following price increases for gas turbines from companies like GEV in March, Jereh's recent orders continue to reflect rising prices, which is expected to further enhance profitability. Electricity shortages remain a key theme for the year, reinforcing a positive outlook for the gas turbine industry chain. According to estimates, North American AI-driven power demand will exceed 70GW by 2028. Considering stable demand of approximately 60GW from other sectors, against expected global gas turbine supply of about 90GW, a significant supply gap is projected. Scheduling for the gas turbine supply chain is expected to extend beyond 2030, and price increases are inevitable. Spillover demand, such as conversions for aviation and marine use, also warrants attention.

Construction Machinery: Excavator domestic sales are expected to return to year-on-year growth in March, while exports maintain strong expansion. A total of 35,934 excavators were sold from January to February 2026, representing a 13.1% increase year-on-year. Domestic sales accounted for 15,478 units, down 9.19% year-on-year, while exports reached 20,456 units, surging 38.8%. Although domestic sales saw a slight single-digit decline, robust export performance, a major contributor to profits, coupled with favorable currency exchange conditions, supports a positive outlook for Q1 performance among major manufacturers. The domestic market is forecast to achieve over 10% growth in 2026, with exports expected to grow more than 15%, indicating sustained positive momentum from both domestic and international demand.

Semiconductor Equipment: The renewed US MATCH Act proposal reinforces the outlook for self-sufficiency and supply chain control. On April 2, US Republican Congressman Michael Baumgartner, along with bipartisan lawmakers, formally introduced the "Multilateral Alignment of Technology Controls for Hardware Act" (MATCH Act). A companion bill was introduced in the Senate, with House Select Committee on China Chairman John Moolenaar expressing clear support. Key provisions include: 1) A comprehensive ban on exports of key Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment (SME) to "countries of concern" (including China), specifically covering Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) immersion lithography tools, cryogenic etching equipment, and other "critical node" semiconductor manufacturing equipment; 2) Explicit designation of SMIC, Hua Hong, YMTC, CXMT, their subsidiaries, and affiliated companies as "restricted facilities," subject to comprehensive export restrictions; 3) Mandating that allied nations align their export control policies within 150 days, requiring countries like the Netherlands and Japan to bring their semiconductor equipment export controls for China in line with US measures. The analysis views the MATCH Act, as a bipartisan initiative with Senate and House recognition, as having a high likelihood of enactment. A key new aspect is the extraterritorial jurisdiction, compelling Japan and the Netherlands to align their semiconductor equipment export controls targeting China. While the US already strictly controls exports of advanced node semiconductor equipment to China, policies from Japan and the Netherlands, though existing, have been less stringent. The focus, which previously emphasized "de-Americanization," should now shift more significantly towards "de-Japanization." The ultimate trend is towards complete self-sufficiency in semiconductor equipment, with lithography machines being a critical area for future breakthroughs. Overall, regarding downstream capacity expansion, fab capital expenditure is expected to continue growing in 2026, with the memory segment showing the strongest certainty and advanced logic likely maintaining robust performance. For localization rates, downstream players are generally accelerating the verification and adoption of domestic equipment. The localization process for components, especially module-based components, is expected to speed up. The sector's fundamentals are broadly positive, with increased emphasis now on "de-Japanization."

Lithium Battery Equipment: High growth in the lithium battery sector is driving increased equipment demand, with Q1 new order intake exceeding expectations. Propelled by expansion waves from leading battery manufacturers and strong growth in energy storage demand, the lithium battery equipment industry is experiencing a robust recovery in orders and performance. New orders secured by top equipment companies in Q1 significantly surpassed expectations, showing continued strong growth year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. The full-year thesis of "strong order recovery -> improved delivery capacity -> margin restoration" is expected to continue playing out. The demand drivers for the sector are clear, with high oil prices and strong downstream demand creating a synergistic effect. The investment value of the lithium battery equipment and solid-state battery sectors remains favorable.

The analysis also highlights several risks: (1) Risk from fluctuations in the domestic macroeconomy: As a typical mid-stream capital goods industry, machinery is closely linked to macroeconomic cycles. Significant shifts in domestic macro policy could adversely affect overall industry demand. (2) Risk from volatility in overseas markets: The international expansion of Chinese companies may face challenges, including potential frictions. Judging whether these are temporary setbacks or indicative of new trends requires careful assessment. (3) Risk of slower-than-expected downstream capacity expansion: If downstream industries expand capacity more slowly than anticipated, corresponding equipment demand would decline, negatively impacting orders and performance for companies within the sector.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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