A research report indicates that the heavy-duty truck industry remains in a growth phase, with the domestic market staying stable due to the extension of the old-for-new vehicle policy into 2026 and continuous export growth providing upward momentum.

Given the generally low current valuations of truck stocks, future profitability is expected to reach new highs alongside sales, suggesting their investment value has not been fully realized.

Sales Performance

According to industry data, wholesale sales of heavy trucks in May reached 109,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 23.3%. Retail sales for the same month were 75,000 units, up 19.4% year-on-year.

Exports in May stood at 41,000 units, marking a 20.8% increase from the previous year. For the first five months of 2026, cumulative wholesale sales reached 544,000 units, also up 23.3% year-on-year.

Cumulative retail sales for the period totaled 332,000 units, a 16.3% increase, while cumulative exports surged 42.3% to 201,000 units.

Inventory Status

Inventory restocking follows a clear cyclical pattern, with peaks typically occurring in the first and fourth quarters. The industry's total inventory increased by 4,000 units by the end of Q1 2026.

As of the end of May 2026, the total inventory for the heavy truck sector was 185,000 units. The dynamic inventory-to-sales ratio, calculated as current total inventory divided by the rolling average of the past three months' retail sales, was 2.7, which is considered a healthy level.

Demand Drivers

Logistics demand has shown signs of recovery since the beginning of 2026. Data shows the year-on-year growth rate for road freight turnover was 2.4% in May, with a cumulative growth rate of 3.1% for the January-May period, indicating a steady, modest increase in demand.

Market Share Trends

For the first five months of 2026, certain manufacturers saw their market share in wholesale, retail, and export sales increase compared to the same period last year.

Potential Risks

Key risks for the sector include a potential downturn in industry sentiment, rising raw material costs, and intensifying market competition.