Abstract

Old National Bancorp will report second-quarter results on July 22, 2026 Pre-MKt, with the market watching revenue trajectory, earnings leverage, and credit costs as key gauges for the company’s near‑term performance.

Market Forecast

Consensus derived from the latest compiled projections points to Old National Bancorp delivering revenue of 717.88 million US dollars this quarter, an estimated year-over-year rise of 15.26%, with estimated EPS at 0.63, up 21.82% year over year; EBIT is projected at 363.18 million US dollars, up 33.28% year over year. No formal forecast for gross profit margin or net profit margin was available in the collected data. Management’s primary business narrative centers on the core community banking franchise; among operating lines, the largest growth potential is expected to be driven by the community banking segment, supported by volume growth and funding mix optimization. The most promising segment based on current disclosures is Community Banking, which was reported at 1.73 billion US dollars with growth expected to continue from loan expansion and improved fee contribution.

Last Quarter Review

Old National Bancorp’s previous quarter delivered revenue of 694.92 million US dollars, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 230.00 million US dollars, quarter-on-quarter net profit growth of 8.02%, and adjusted EPS of 0.61, up 35.56% year over year; the company did not disclose gross profit margin or net profit margin in the collected dataset. A key financial highlight was EBIT of 330.22 million US dollars, which increased 50.91% year over year, suggesting operating leverage improved despite a complex rate backdrop. Main business performance was led by Community Banking, disclosed at 1.73 billion US dollars, indicating the scale of the franchise and the importance of balance-sheet-driven income alongside stable fee streams.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: Community banking revenue and balance-sheet momentum

Old National Bancorp’s core community banking operations remain the principal earnings engine, benefiting from steady loan demand in commercial and consumer categories and disciplined pricing. For the current quarter, the model implies revenue of 717.88 million US dollars and EPS of 0.63, which suggests a continuation of top-line expansion despite a competitive deposit environment. Operating leverage is expected to hold as management leans on cost controls and technology-driven efficiency gains to offset funding pressures. The sustainability of loan growth should reflect cautious underwriting and stable credit quality, which keeps provision expense within a manageable range and supports earnings durability.

Most promising business line: Community banking scale advantages

Within the company’s mix, community banking stands out because of its scale and recurring contribution to net interest income and core fees. The segment’s disclosed revenue base of 1.73 billion US dollars underscores meaningful capacity to absorb credit and funding cyclicality while still posting positive operating results. As deposit betas normalize and wholesale funding reliance is contained, net interest income from this franchise can track modest improvement, and the company may capture incremental spread if asset yields continue to reprice favorably. Fee support from treasury services, cards, and mortgage-related activities can add diversification, improving resilience if loan growth slows.

Key stock drivers this quarter: Net interest margin, credit costs, and fee stability

The stock reaction will likely hinge on the interplay among net interest margin, deposit costs, and loan repricing, which determine the breadth of earnings beat or miss relative to the 0.63 EPS estimate. Credit costs are another critical driver; investors will parse nonperforming trends, net charge-offs, and qualitative reserve guidance for early signals on normalization. Lastly, fee revenues provide a buffer against rate volatility; maintaining stability in service charges and treasury management fees could help defend the revenue outlook if funding costs pressure net interest income.

Analyst Opinions

Most analyst and institutional commentary reviewed over the January 15, 2026 to July 15, 2026 window leans constructive, with a majority tilted toward a bullish stance on Old National Bancorp ahead of the July 22, 2026 report. The supportive view emphasizes that consensus revenue of 717.88 million US dollars and EPS of 0.63 imply reasonable execution hurdles, given the company’s demonstrated operating leverage last quarter and an EBIT forecast pace of 33.28% year-over-year growth. Analysts also highlight that QoQ net profit momentum of 8.02% last quarter strengthens the case for sustained earnings carryover into the current period.

In bullish notes from well-followed brokerages, the core arguments cluster around a manageable deposit-cost trajectory, improving asset yields from prior repricing, and visibility on fee contributions that reduce earnings volatility. Coverage teams point to last quarter’s 50.91% year-over-year EBIT increase as evidence of cost discipline and scale benefits, which could translate into incremental margin protection even if net interest margin moves sideways. Several analysts underscore that credit normalization remains orderly, allowing the company to prioritize organic growth and technology investments without outsized provisioning drag.

Supportive institutions further suggest that if revenue lands near 717.88 million US dollars and EPS approaches 0.63, investors may recalibrate expectations for the back half of 2026 to reflect steadier profitability, particularly if management affirms a constructive outlook on loan pipelines and stable deposit trends. The bullish cohort sees the community banking franchise as adequately positioned to handle near-term rate dynamics, with the operating model’s efficiency and diversification providing multiple paths to defend returns. As a result, the prevailing perspective anticipates in-line to modestly better results, with forward commentary on net interest income trajectory and credit quality serving as the primary catalysts for near-term valuation reassessment.