Abstract

Nomura will report fiscal Q1 2026 results on July 29, 2026 Pre-MKt; investors will watch revenue, margin resilience, and EPS amid slower dealmaking and trading normalization.

Market Forecast

Consensus for Nomura’s current quarter points to softer top-line and earnings normalization. The company-level forecast indicates EBIT of 966.37 million US dollars with a year-over-year decline of 6.75%, and EPS of 0.21 with a year-over-year decline of 16.00%. If realized, this implies pressure on profitability versus last year’s elevated base. Highlights for the core operations suggest trading revenue moderating while fee-based businesses (asset management and portfolio services, commissions, and investment banking) provide partial ballast to gross margin and net margin dynamics. The most promising revenue stream remains asset-management and portfolio-service fees at 468.60 billion US dollars in the last quarter’s breakdown, supported by steady client assets and recurring fees, implying a resilient YoY run-rate despite market volatility.

Last Quarter Review

Nomura’s prior quarter posted revenue of 3.46 billion US dollars, a gross profit margin of 74.97%, net profit attributable to the parent of 73.93 billion US dollars with a net profit margin of 12.81%, and adjusted EPS of 0.162, with EPS up 1.25% year over year. One notable highlight was the continued efficiency in cost control that preserved margins against a more muted trading backdrop, contributing to a solid EBIT print of 686.39 million US dollars, up 7.09% year over year. Main business performance featured balanced contributions across fees and trading: interest and dividends totaled 2,669.64 billion US dollars and trading net revenue reached 696.89 billion US dollars; asset-management and portfolio-service fees contributed 468.60 billion US dollars, while commissions and investment-banking fees registered 455.29 billion US dollars and 200.55 billion US dollars, respectively.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main revenue engine: Markets franchise and client activity

Markets revenue is set to normalize from last year’s active backdrop, with forecast EBIT implying a modest year-over-year decline. Management’s prior commentary points to more balanced client activity across rates, FX, and equities, though bid-ask compression and lower volatility could weigh on trading net revenue and spread capture. Fee pools from prime brokerage and derivatives clearing should help offset softer flow, while disciplined risk utilization remains crucial for sustaining gross margin resilience near prior-quarter levels.

Most promising segment: Fee-based and recurring revenues

Asset-management and portfolio-service fees, alongside commissions, carry a more predictable earnings profile relative to trading-sensitive lines. With risk assets stabilizing into mid-year, average assets under management and transaction volumes can underpin fee momentum even as primary issuance remains uneven. The segment’s durability can support margin quality and EPS stability, especially as operating leverage improves from prior investments in platforms and digital channels.

Stock-price driver: Investment banking and corporate activity

Investment banking fees remain a swing factor into this print. A patchy global calendar for ECM and DCM issuance, plus uneven M&A closures, introduces uncertainty to near-term revenue. Any pickup in cross-border dealmaking or a reopening in Japan and Asia syndication pipelines would help counter the projected EBIT and EPS declines; absent that, the market may focus on cost discipline and ROE signals to gauge trajectory.

Analyst Opinions

Most recent analyst and institutional commentary coalesces around a cautious stance, emphasizing a near-term normalization from last year’s elevated trading and deal-making base, balanced by steadier fee income. The majority view expects light downside risk to revenue and EPS versus the prior year but acknowledges supportive medium-term tailwinds from fee-based growth and operating efficiency. Analysts highlight that the projected EBIT decline of 6.75% and EPS of 0.21 reflect a measured reset rather than a structural deterioration, with attention centered on the pace of recovery in investment banking and the sustainability of expenses near recent run-rates. Prominent institutions reiterate that the mix shift toward recurring fees can buffer volatility while management’s capital prudence remains a valuation anchor into the print.