Copper foil is a core foundational material for the electronics and new energy industries, segmented into lithium battery copper foil (accounting for 59% of production capacity) and PCB copper foil (41%). The industry is currently experiencing a dual upswing: lithium battery copper foil has hit a cyclical bottom and is rebounding, with a profit inflection point confirmed; PCB copper foil is being driven by the AI wave, with supply and demand for high-end HVLP foil remaining tight. The copper foil sector is entering a strategic opportunity period characterized by simultaneous volume and price increases.

Lithium Battery Copper Foil: Cycle Bottoming Out, Ultra-Thinning Opens Growth Path As the core material for the negative electrode current collector, lithium battery copper foil constitutes about 13% of a lithium battery's weight and 5%-10% of its cost, with a continuous trend toward ultra-thinning. According to GGII, the share of 4.5/5μm products is projected to rise rapidly from less than 10% in 2025 to approximately 25% in 2026E, indicating a significant increase in ultra-thin penetration. On the supply side, capacity rationalization is accelerating, leading to higher market concentration among leading firms. In 2025, the top five companies accounted for 49.1% of sales volume, with capacity utilization recovering from under 50% in 2024 to 83% in 2025, and is expected to exceed 88% in 2026. Some leading manufacturers are shifting production lines to PCB copper foil, which commands higher processing fees, further tightening effective supply for lithium battery applications. On the demand side, driven by both power and energy storage applications, shipments reached 940,000 tons in 2025 and are forecast to hit 1.15 million tons (+22.3%) in 2026. The share of energy storage demand increased from 9.9% in 2021 to 29.8% in Q1 2026. Regarding profitability, an inflection point is established. Some companies have seen gross profit per ton recover from -500 yuan in 2024 to over 4,000 yuan in 2025. Prices for 4.5μm products increased by about 3,000 yuan/ton in Q4 2025, with 6μm and 8μm products also initiating price hikes.

PCB Copper Foil: AI Wave Drives Sustained Tightness in High-End Supply and Demand PCB copper foil is a critical material for high-frequency, high-speed signal transmission. The technology path has evolved from STD to HVLP5, with the core objective being to reduce surface roughness to minimize transmission loss. AI servers have fully adopted HVLP4 and are accelerating the transition to HVLP5, with copper foil usage per unit increasing by 2.5 times compared to traditional servers. Nvidia's Rubin architecture introduces a Midplane using M9 material and processes exceeding 40 layers, representing the largest source of incremental demand. On the supply side, high-end HVLP foil is dominated by Japanese and Taiwanese manufacturers. Their capacity expansion follows a gradual ramp-up with lengthy verification cycles, making it difficult for new capacity to achieve bulk supply in the short term. Semi Analysis estimates a supply-demand gap for HVLP4 reaching 666 tons/month by Q2 2026, suggesting the imbalance will persist. Demand-wise, capital expenditures from the four major CSPs are projected to exceed $730 billion in 2026 (nearly doubling). The global market size for high-end copper foil used in AI and high-performance computing is expected to reach 6.77 billion yuan by 2029. The processing fee for HVLP4 is approximately 120,000 yuan/ton, with gross margins potentially reaching 60%, indicating significant profit elasticity from generational upgrades. Regarding import substitution, companies like Tongguan Copper Foil and Zhongyi Technology have achieved batch supply of HVLP foil. Tongguan Copper Foil has broken through key performance indicators for HVLP5. In 2025, China imported 78,500 tons of electronic copper foil, resulting in a trade deficit of $694 million, highlighting continued high dependence on high-end imports and substantial room for domestic substitution.

Related Companies: Tongguan Copper Foil, Defu Technology, Jiayuan Technology, Nuode Shares, Jiemei Technology. Risk Warnings: Risks of downstream demand falling short of expectations; risks of significant fluctuations in raw material prices; risks of industry overcapacity and intensified competition.