Hot sectors include self-selected stocks, data centers, market trends, and capital flow simulations. According to Li Xia, a corn market analyst at Zhuochuang Information, corn prices in Northeast China have accelerated their decline since mid-July, with increased market supply being the primary driver. Although deep-processing enterprises remain the main consumers, high temperatures have prompted traders to actively offload inventory, while downstream demand stays relatively weak. Additionally, the competitiveness of substitute products has further dampened demand for feed corn. Looking ahead, as high temperatures subside and pressure from high-moisture grain stocks eases, the decline in Northeast China corn prices is expected to slow by late August, with prices gradually aligning with new crop levels in September.

The price decline for corn in Northeast China’s production areas has accelerated in the second half of the year. Since mid-July, corn prices in Northeast China have been falling continuously, with the pace of decline quickening. Monitoring data from Zhuochuang Information shows that as of August 10, the average daily corn prices in Northeast China and nationwide had dropped to 2,176.25 yuan per ton and 2,235.40 yuan per ton, respectively, down 3.01% and 2.62% from July 1. This indicates that the price decline in Northeast China is steeper than the national average, primarily due to supply growth outpacing demand growth, putting downward pressure on market prices.

Demand from downstream processing sectors was weak in July. The downstream demand for corn in Northeast China mainly includes domestic and external sales. Domestically, deep processing remains the primary consumer. Monitoring data from Zhuochuang Information reveals that in July, purchases of corn by sample deep-processing enterprises in Northeast China totaled about 920,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 12% but a year-on-year decrease of 8%. The rise in purchases relied mainly on bulk grain, achieved through price reductions to boost volume. The average daily purchase price for corn by sample enterprises in Northeast China dropped from 2,250 yuan per ton to 2,194 yuan per ton in July, a decline of 2.51%.

From a supply perspective, increased high temperatures in Northeast China after July caused issues like heating and capping for dried grain with moisture content of 15% or more in the trade sector. Traders actively sold off inventory, but downstream consumption relied mainly on deep processing. Feed enterprises and end-user livestock farms adopted a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy, with some large-scale firms using directed rice or existing stocks. High-quality corn was purchased only for essential needs, resulting in generally weak domestic demand. Beyond deep-processing enterprises, some high-moisture grain from the trade sector in Northeast China flowed into ports. Monitoring data from Zhuochuang Information shows that in July, the total grain collection volume at six major northern ports was 740,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 59% but a year-on-year decrease of 33.69%. This increase in port collection volume was also achieved through price declines. Entering August, futures prices were generally weak, port prices continued to fall, and as port prices lost their advantage, the volume of corn collected at the six major northern ports decreased.

Regarding external sales, high-quality corn from Northeast China, due to its quality advantage and cost-effectiveness, is often sold to North China and southern feed markets. Monitoring data from Zhuochuang Information shows that as of the end of July, the corn inventory days of sample feed enterprises in North China and Southwest markets had dropped to 24 days and 35 days, respectively, down 11 days and 13 days from the previous month. This was mainly due to the clear price advantage of substitutes. Feed enterprises in North China widely use new-season wheat, while markets in the Southwest rely on substitutes like imported barley and sorghum, which consistently suppress feed corn consumption.

The decline in Northeast China corn prices is expected to narrow in mid-to-late August, with a gradual transition to new crop prices in September. After the start of autumn, high temperatures will gradually subside, and pressure from high-moisture grain inventory will significantly ease. Downstream processing enterprises and feed sectors still have rigid demand for corn from Northeast China, providing conditions for price stabilization. According to monitoring data from Zhuochuang Information, as of August 10, the mainstream price for corn in Northeast China’s production areas ranged from 2,060 to 2,250 yuan per ton. Losses for traders selling from inventory could reach up to 200 yuan per ton (including storage costs, management fees, and interest), leading some traders to hold back sales, while others with naturally dried corn plan to bet on price rallies in September and October.

From a seasonal demand perspective, downstream processing enterprises in the region mainly consume existing stocks and contract grain, with limited purchases of bulk grain. Terminal feed demand is expected to slowly recover after mid-September, offering little support from the demand side. On the supply side, the volume of spring corn from South China and North China is increasing, with clear price advantages as a substitute. New-season corn from Xinjiang will begin to hit the market in late August, while new-season corn from Northeast China will gradually come online after mid-September. Additionally, trade inventory in production areas of Northeast China, Northwest China, and North China is significantly higher than last year, leaving limited time for selling old stocks. With third-party funding deadlines approaching, the trade sector still faces pressure to move inventory, indicating a loose supply situation.

Considering the overall supply and demand fundamentals, Zhuochuang Information predicts that the decline in Northeast China corn prices will slow in mid-to-late August, with the mainstream market price possibly falling to 2,040-2,230 yuan per ton, a drop of about 20 yuan per ton from early August. The cumulative monthly decline could reach around 40 yuan per ton. In September, as inventory pressure eases and downstream rigid demand remains, corn prices are expected to decline slowly and with oscillation, gradually aligning with new crop price levels. Partnering with Sina, a large platform for futures account opening, ensures safety and convenience.