Nickel's price rebound is currently caught in an arithmetic puzzle involving basis spreads and inventory levels. On August 26, the average price of Yangtze River spot 1# nickel reached 130,200 yuan per tonne, up 500 yuan from the previous day, reclaiming the 130,000 yuan per tonne threshold. Meanwhile, the Shanghai nickel 2610 contract was trading at 129,640 yuan per tonne, down a marginal 20 yuan from the prior settlement. With spot prices strengthening while futures weakened, the spot premium over futures has quietly widened to approximately 560 yuan per tonne—a signal typically associated with tight spot supply. However, when cross-referenced against inventory data, the narrative becomes far more intricate.

The London market provided its own reference point: LME nickel closed at 17,050 USD per tonne, up 35 USD from the previous close, with open interest at 233,178 lots, indicating sustained high levels of offshore capital. Yet LME nickel inventories have remained persistently elevated above the 260,000-tonne range, with this massive visible stockpile serving as a constant weight over bullish positions. Domestically, the Shanghai nickel 2610 contract recorded midday trading volume of 123,894 lots with open interest of 128,233 lots, significantly surpassing the 2609 contract's 48,065 lots and the 2611 contract's 66,882 lots. This suggests that capital continues to favor far-month contracts while maintaining caution toward near-month positions.

The Shanghai-London price ratio, calculated from LME nickel at 17,050 USD and Shanghai nickel at 129,640 yuan, sits at a moderately high level compared to recent years, implying that if the import window opens, it could exert downward pressure on the domestic market. The coexistence of a widening basis and high inventory levels indicates that this round of spot price strength stems more from phase-based price support by traders rather than substantive volume growth in end-user consumption.

Examining the spread structure, the Shanghai nickel 2610 contract at 129,640 yuan versus the 2609 contract at 129,320 yuan forms a slight backwardation pattern with near-month prices below far-month prices—typically suggesting that spot supply is not tight and that futures markets maintain a loose outlook for near-term supply. The relatively high ratio between LME nickel at 17,050 USD and the Shanghai nickel equivalent price hints that if offshore prices decline, the domestic market could face additional pressure from import replenishment.

At its core, the 560 yuan spot premium acts like a magnifying glass, exposing the structural contradictions within nickel's price rebound: tight spot conditions versus loose inventory, weak near-month contracts versus stable far-month contracts. Unless LME inventories show a trend of depletion and the dual-track demand drivers deliver incremental growth, the tug-of-war for the Shanghai nickel 2610 contract around the 130,000 yuan threshold is unlikely to be easily resolved. Going forward, market participants must closely monitor LME inventory flows, domestic social inventory changes, stainless steel production schedules, and marginal signals from new energy orders—these factors will ultimately determine whether the premium can be sustained.

For traders, the 560 yuan premium offers an arbitrage opportunity between spot and futures, but if inventory levels fail to show depletion, the entry of positive arbitrage positions could actually increase hidden supply. For downstream stainless steel mills, the elevated premium pushes up raw material costs, which, given already thin profit margins, could more readily trigger production cuts or substitute procurement strategies. The ongoing standoff between bullish and bearish forces suggests that the battle for the 130,000 yuan threshold will remain fiercely contested in the near term.