Michael Saylor's Strategy Inc. (MSTR.US) is currently experiencing a broad loss of market confidence, with one notable exception: Wall Street analysts. Even as the company's common and preferred shares have tumbled alongside Bitcoin, prompting analysts to lower their price targets, they still project greater potential upside for this stock than for any other component of the Nasdaq 100. This includes even SpaceX (SPCX.US), which has fallen below its IPO price following its record debut.

According to compiled data, 17 analysts have assigned a "Buy" or equivalent rating to Strategy, including those from TD Cowen, Citigroup, and B. Riley Securities. In contrast, there are only 3 "Hold" ratings and a single "Sell" rating. This optimistic outlook persists despite a fundamental shift in the company's once-famous business model.

Saylor has transformed the firm from a relatively obscure enterprise software maker into the world's largest publicly traded corporate holder of Bitcoin. After years of urging investors to buy cryptocurrency, the company has begun selling portions of its holdings to raise cash. By the end of June, Strategy had moved away from a simple "buy and hold" approach, opting instead to actively manage its liquidity and balance sheet.

These changes are designed to bolster its ability to service future debt, but they have failed to restore market faith. The company's securities have yet to recover their losses. Nevertheless, Wall Street analysts have largely maintained their bullish recommendations. Their forecasts are partly based on the expectation that Saylor's funding machine can continue to raise capital and that a Bitcoin rally will restore the premium investors once assigned to the stock.

TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza stated that his view on Strategy hinges on his outlook for Bitcoin's trajectory over the coming years. In an interview, he said, "I am very confident that Bitcoin will be in the hundreds of thousands of dollars two years, five years from now — but it's not going to be a straight, smooth, clean line." On Thursday, Bitcoin was trading around $66,000, nearly half off its all-time high from late last year. Strategy shares closed around $100 on Wednesday. The company did not respond to requests for comment.

The consensus one-year price target stands at approximately $275, implying a potential gain of about 170% from current levels. According to compiled data, this is nearly double the expected upside for SpaceX, which has the second-most bullish price target among Nasdaq 100 stocks. Such a massive implied upside has raised skepticism.

Adam McCarthy, Head of Research at crypto liquidity and market data firm LO:TECH, suggested that expecting such a large surge is "far removed from reality and seems highly unreasonable." This overall target figure comes with significant caveats. The consensus price target incorporates recommendations issued at various stages of Strategy's decline.

Data indicates that several firms have updated their views in recent weeks, while others have not adjusted their ratings or targets for months, with some recommendations dating back to late 2025. The enormous implied gain may also partly reflect the speed of Strategy's decline. Its shares have fallen more than 40% over the past three months, making it the worst performer in the Nasdaq 100.

Because analysts typically adjust price targets less frequently than market prices move, a sudden sell-off can create a large gap between the market price and consensus expectations. However, analysts have already tempered their outlooks. Compiled data shows the average price target has retreated from above $460 earlier this year, as many firms have revised down their Bitcoin forecasts and valuation assumptions.

Yet most analysts remain reluctant to abandon "Buy" or equivalent ratings. Recent research reports have generally maintained a positive tone. Data shows that among the 11 analysts who have updated their views, nine have assigned a "Buy" or equivalent rating, one is "Neutral," and one recommends shorting the stock.

While recent buy ratings mask significant valuation disparities—with targets ranging from $130 to over $500—they point to a consistent optimistic sentiment. Some analysts covering Strategy are affiliated with firms that have business relationships with the company, including underwriting securities offerings, making markets in its securities, and acting as authorized agents for its at-the-market (ATM) equity offering program.

Earlier this year, Saylor stated that about 80% of Strategy preferred shares had been sold to retail investors via the ATM program. He has expressed a desire for these securities to become a primary funding source for the company. If retail investors remain the primary buyers, Strategy's ability to continue raising funds through this program will depend heavily on their willingness to keep purchasing these preferred shares.

McCarthy noted, "If you're pricing it like a bank analyst, perhaps you think retail flows are resilient, and if rates come down next year, maybe Bitcoin makes a comeback."