According to sources familiar with the matter, European Central Bank officials are prepared to raise interest rates in September if the eurozone inflation outlook fails to show significant improvement.
Based on current information and data, particularly the economic impact of the Middle East conflict, the ECB may need to implement another 25-basis-point rate hike to contain consumer price pressures.
However, the sources emphasized that no final decision has been made, and the situation could shift rapidly, especially if progress is made in peace negotiations or if the economy experiences a more severe downturn. This stance aligns with the ECB's "meeting-by-meeting assessment" policy approach.
On Thursday, ECB President Christine Lagarde laid the groundwork for a potential rate hike in September. She stated that before the final decision to maintain the deposit rate at 2.25%, some members had discussed whether immediate action should be taken.
"Some governors asked themselves whether we should consider raising rates," Lagarde said on Thursday. "We believe the current policy stance is sufficient to allow us to wait and closely monitor developments in the coming weeks, as well as the data we will receive in that period."
Last month, the ECB became the first major central bank among the Group of Seven to raise interest rates since the outbreak of the conflict. Currently, the ECB remains at the forefront of G7 central banks in addressing price pressures driven by geopolitical tensions.
Lagarde told reporters: "There are upside risks to the inflation outlook. The energy shock could intensify further, and its impact on other commodity prices and wages may be stronger than currently anticipated. The longer energy prices remain elevated, the greater the likelihood of driving broader inflation higher."
Currently, the Middle East conflict is showing signs of escalation and could lead to further supply disruptions. On Thursday, after Iran-backed Houthi militants claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers, international oil prices breached the $100 per barrel mark for the first time in two months.