China's A-share market closed lower today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.82%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropping 0.40%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.34%. The combined trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 2.34 trillion yuan, a decrease from the previous session. Declining stocks outnumbered advancers, with over 3,700 stocks falling across the market. At the sector level, due to the fluctuating Middle East negotiations, oil and gas performed relatively well, while the precious metals sector experienced a pullback. (Source: Wind)

Today's market was another weak day. Overnight oil prices surged sharply, and the US-Iran negotiations regarding a peace agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remained deadlocked. This reignited inflation concerns, pushing US Treasury yields higher and putting short-term pressure on the sentiment for "rate cut expectations." Additionally, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that inflation has not yet returned to the target level, suggesting the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates multiple times. Gold and mining stocks typically have a higher sensitivity to gold prices, and given their recent significant gains, their pullbacks are often "amplified" compared to spot gold. In the short term, investors should be wary of volatility around the release of the CPI data and the high-beta pullback in gold stocks. However, if gold prices stabilize near key psychological levels and the narrative around rate cuts and the US dollar is not significantly reversed by data, the pullback might resemble a rhythm adjustment within a strong trend. The medium-term outlook could still be worth a positive view.

Has the rebound ended here? The market continued to see declining volume today. The index is facing resistance from the 250-day moving average (a medium-to-long-term trend line) and the psychological pressure of the 4,000-point integer mark. Without a sustained increase in volume, the difficulty of breaking through these levels is significantly elevated. Looking ahead, the recovery rally has entered its later stages. While indexes still have room for further repair, the upside elasticity will gradually diminish, making broad-based gains more challenging. Market drivers will shift from valuation recovery to fundamental performance validation. The core focus this week is on the US July CPI and PPI data, which could be a crucial basis for the Fed's decision on a potential rate hike in September.

Innovative Drugs: With the mid-year report disclosure period approaching, performance validation is strengthening the sector's investment thesis. Today, the Sci-Tech Innovation Innovative Drug ETF (589720) rose 1.15%, and the Hang Seng Bio-Tech ETF (520930) gained 0.41%.

CXO: A CDMO leader significantly exceeded expectations by raising its full-year guidance. Revenue guidance was raised from 513-530 billion yuan to 585-605 billion yuan, and the growth rate for continuing operations revenue was increased from 18%-22% to 35%-39%. Previously, the market's expectations were generally around 27%-33%. The Tides business, supported by tirzepatide, and the small molecule D&M segment showed robust growth momentum. The high growth in order backlog indicates strong customer demand and business growth potential. Furthermore, the overseas MNC Eli Lilly's tirzepatide achieved better-than-expected revenue, which could further alleviate market concerns about the growth pressure on CDMO companies' TIDES-related businesses.

Innovative Drugs: Several leading A-share innovative drug companies also released performance forecasts this week, showing strong results (e.g., first-time turnaround to profit, raising full-year guidance). The main reasons for the outstanding performance were the recognition of milestone payments from business development deals in financial reports and strong US sales of major products. The innovative drug plus CXO supply chain, particularly CDMO, whose fundamentals have exceeded market expectations, seems to be a favored sector for the market recently. In the medium term, the abstracts for the ESMO conference have been released, and the key data readouts from Chinese pharmaceutical companies at the conference are expected to remain impressive. In the long term, the launch of SKB264 in the US is expected to progress by the end of the year. The potential for performance readouts from overseas sales of Chinese pipelines could become a major narrative for the innovative drug sector. Interested investors can look into the Sci-Tech Innovation Innovative Drug ETF (589720) (with 20% daily price limits) or the Hang Seng Bio-Tech ETF (520930), which has a higher CXO component.

Robotics: The T-chain rebounded today, with the Robotics ETF (159551) rising 1.06%. A leading screw-rod company released its mid-year report. For the first half of 2026, the company reported revenue of 9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.9%, and net profit attributable to the parent of 1.5 billion yuan, up 21.7% year-on-year. The robotics-related business performed particularly well, with revenue from precision structural components reaching 0.96 billion yuan in H1 2026, and a gross margin of 47%. The company's Thailand factory has commenced production, with a weekly output of 1,500-2,000 units in the middle of the year, expected to increase to 3,000-4,000 units per week by year-end, meeting the order demands of a major overseas client. This has somewhat boosted sentiment in the sector. Overseas, Tesla's mass production is progressing steadily. The Fremont automation production line is expected to be operational by mid-August, with production likely to begin gradually. The confidence level for reaching a weekly output of 1,000 units in September has further increased. Domestically, the listing of Unitree is providing ongoing catalysts. The IPO price is 150.8 yuan per share, with a market cap at issuance of approximately 60 billion yuan. The company is expected to list on the STAR Market (科创板) by the end of August. Unitree is one of the few robot companies in China to achieve profitable scale, with revenues of 3.93 billion and 16.99 billion yuan and net profits of 0.95 billion and 2.78 billion yuan in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Its listing could drive a revaluation of the domestic humanoid robot supply chain. The humanoid robotics sector currently has favorable positioning, and catalysts such as the start of Tesla's mass production, the listings of Unitree and Zhiyuan, and the upcoming Robot Conference could provide further momentum. Interested investors can consider the Robotics ETF (159551), which covers both domestic and international humanoid robot supply chains.

New Energy: The energy storage sector also performed relatively well today. The ChiNext New Energy ETF (159387) rose 0.66%. The core reasons: European natural gas prices surged significantly on August 10, and the market once again harbored doubts about the resumption of LNG transportation through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, a market rumor suggested that a leading inverter company had obtained an FCC exemption for utility-scale solar projects, alleviating concerns about restrictions on its US business. Regardless of the truth of the rumor, energy storage demand looks solid both domestically and internationally.

Domestic Market: The "15th Five-Year Plan" for renewable energy development has set clear requirements for the confidence level of wind and solar power. The development of independent energy storage, combined with the implementation of mandatory energy storage allocation policies, provides dual support, giving strong certainty to the growth of domestic energy storage installations. In July, domestic winning bids totaled 5GW/47.1GWh, an increase of 83% year-on-year. Independent energy storage accounted for 38.2GWh, or 81% of the total. The significant year-on-year increase in July bids once again confirms the strong momentum in the domestic large-scale energy storage market.

European and US Markets: Fluence's Q3 fiscal year 2026 report clearly stated that it has signed 5 billion yuan in data center energy storage orders. The demand for data center energy storage is good, which is expected to drive high growth in the US energy storage market. High natural gas prices, geopolitical conflicts, and the gradual implementation of various subsidy policies are providing underlying support for energy storage demand, pointing to improving industry fundamentals in the European market.

Emerging Markets: Supported by relevant subsidy policies, Australia's energy storage installations are maintaining a relatively high expansion rate. Markets in Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America offer vast development space and will continue to provide incremental growth momentum for global energy storage installations. The current valuation of the sector offers good value for money. Interested investors can consider the ChiNext New Energy ETF (159387) (with 20% daily price limits), which as of the end of July 2026, had an energy storage plus solid-state battery content of approximately 63%.

Risk Warning: Investors should fully understand the difference between periodic fixed-amount investment plans for funds and savings methods like installment savings. A periodic fixed-amount investment plan is a simple method of guiding investors to make long-term investments and average their investment costs. However, such a plan does not avoid the inherent risks of fund investment, does not guarantee investors a profit, and is not an equivalent wealth management substitute for savings. Stock ETFs, LOFs, and graded funds are all securities investment fund products with relatively high expected risk and expected return. Their expected return and risk levels are higher than those of hybrid funds, bond funds, and money market funds. As fund assets are invested in the STAR Market and ChiNext Board, they face specific risks arising from differences in investment targets, market systems, and trading rules, of which investors are advised to be aware. The short-term performance data for sectors/funds are listed only as supplementary material for the analysis viewpoints in the article and are for reference only. They do not constitute a guarantee of fund performance. The short-term performance of individual stocks mentioned in the text is for reference only and does not constitute a stock recommendation or a prediction or guarantee of fund performance. The above views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice or a commitment. To purchase related fund products, investors should pay attention to relevant regulations on investor suitability, conduct risk assessments in advance, and purchase fund products with a risk level matching their own risk tolerance. Funds carry risks. Investment must be cautious. MACD Golden Cross signal formed, these stocks are showing good momentum!