IBM closed at $226.44, down 0.49%. Large options trades painted a decisively bullish picture, with $5.99 million in bullish flow versus zero bearish flow. A $4.70 million short put and a $1.29 million bull put spread dominated activity, reflecting strong conviction in price stability and limited downside.

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Options Indicators

IBM’s implied volatility is 44.17%, and with an IV percentile of 82.47%, current option pricing sits in the elevated end of its historical range, indicating that options are relatively expensive at the moment. At the same time, the IV/HV ratio of 0.40 suggests implied volatility is running well below realized volatility, so despite the high percentile versus its own history, the market’s forward volatility pricing is still modest relative to what the stock has actually been delivering. The Call/Put volume ratio is 2.37.

Large Trades

A PUT sale worth $4.70 million was the standout large trade, with 1,100 contracts sold on the January 21, 2028 $220.00 put. With IBM referenced at $226.44, this strike was out of the money at the time of the trade, making it a moderately bullish premium-collection position. The seller is effectively expressing confidence that IBM will remain above $220.00 into expiration, or at least that downside risk will stay limited enough for the put premium to decay favorably. Strategically, this kind of single-leg short put typically reflects a constructive view on the stock, with the trader willing to take on downside assignment risk in exchange for income.

A bullish put spread worth $1.29 million was the other notable trade, structured by selling 1,346 October 16, 2026 $200.00 puts and buying 1,346 October 16, 2026 $175.00 puts. This Bull Put Spread was executed for a net credit, indicating a classic bullish income strategy with defined downside risk. Both strikes were out of the money versus the $226.44 stock reference, which suggests the trader was positioning for IBM to stay above $200.00 through expiration while using the long $175.00 put as protection against a larger downside move. The strategic intent here was clearly premium collection with a bullish bias rather than an outright aggressive upside chase.

Overall sentiment was decisively bullish, with total bullish large-trade flow at $5.99 million versus bearish flow of $0.00 million, leaving a net difference of $5.99 million to the bullish side. The directional judgment is clearly positive, as all of the highlighted activity was concentrated in short-put structures that benefit from IBM holding above lower strike levels rather than rallying sharply. That pattern points to traders expressing confidence in price stability and limited downside, with a preference for collecting premium through out-of-the-money downside exposure rather than paying for upside optionality.

Strategy Reference

For a low assignment probability, a seller may consider the $190.00 strike put, which sits further out of the money and behind the $200.00 support level highlighted by the bull put spread, or adopt a put credit spread to define risk and reduce margin requirements.