Orient Securities Company Limited has released a research report analyzing the home appliance sector. The data shows that in May, domestic air conditioner shipments reached 12.001 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 15.0%. Domestic refrigerator shipments were 3.548 million units, down 8.7% year-on-year, while domestic washing machine shipments stood at 3.185 million units, a decline of 9.3% year-on-year. The downward trend in domestic sales of major home appliances, continuing from a high base, persisted in the second quarter, with overall performance aligning with expectations.

The positive trend in exports remains unchanged, as high temperatures and restocking demand are expected to continue exerting a favorable influence on air conditioner exports, while differing brand strategies in overseas expansion will lead to varied export performances. The decline in air conditioner exports has narrowed marginally, while refrigerator and washing machine exports are experiencing strong momentum, a trend anticipated to continue. The key viewpoints from Orient Securities Company Limited are outlined below.

Domestic Appliance Shipments Face Pressure with Diverging Brand Performance

According to industry data, domestic air conditioner shipments in May were 12.001 million units, down 15.0% year-on-year. Domestic refrigerator shipments were 3.548 million units, a decrease of 8.7%, and domestic washing machine shipments were 3.185 million units, falling 9.3%. In terms of brands, Gree and Midea led the domestic air conditioner market in sales volume for May. Gree shipped 3.10 million units domestically, a 6.1% decrease, securing a market share of 25.8%. Haier, Aux, Hisense, and TCL followed, with overall domestic sales showing a divergent trend among brands.

For refrigerators, Haier's domestic shipments were 1.33 million units, down 6.3%, while Midea's shipments reached 680,000 units, up 13.3%. For washing machines, Haier's domestic shipments were 1.36 million units, a decrease of 4.6%. The report suggests that the downward trend in domestic sales of major appliances in Q2, against a high base, is widespread. It is projected that the annual sales pattern will be lower in the first half and higher in the second half. Considering that the base period will start to decline from Q3 2025, a marginal improvement in the growth rate is anticipated by Q3 2026.

Appliance Exports Diverge with Air Conditioner Decline Narrowing

Industry data indicates that China's air conditioner exports in May were 7.58 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%. This represents a marginal narrowing compared to the 12.0% decline in April. The scale of air conditioner exports is primarily influenced by climatic conditions, channel inventory cycles, and tariff trade policies. Benefiting from high temperatures in many overseas regions stimulating essential cooling demand and a temporary easing of geopolitical conflicts generating some restocking demand, the export environment shows signs of improvement.

At the brand level, Midea exported 2.05 million air conditioner units, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. TCL exported 1.30 million units, down 13.3%, while Haier exported 550,000 units, achieving a 10.0% growth against the trend. The report maintains that the overall positive trend for appliance exports remains intact. High temperatures and restocking demand will continue to positively impact air conditioner exports, and differences in brands' overseas expansion strategies will persistently lead to a divergence in export performance.

Overall Strong Appliance Exports with Refrigerator and Washing Machine Demand Booming

According to industry data, refrigerator exports reached 5.678 million units in May, a significant year-on-year increase of 23.1%. Washing machine exports were 4.45 million units, up 11.7% year-on-year. The positive momentum for refrigerators and washing machines is largely attributed to the proactive overseas market expansion by domestic brands and robust overseas demand. The surge in refrigerator exports stems from factors like tariff reductions and stimulation from hot weather abroad. The strong growth in washing machine exports is also influenced by stable shipments to mature markets and demand释放 from urbanization in emerging markets.

Regarding refrigerator export brands, Homa and Midea exported 1.26 million and 1.009 million units respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 25.5% and 38.6%, showing steady increases. Furthermore, the top seven refrigerator export brands, including Hisense, Meiling, Haier, TCL, and Konka, all achieved year-on-year growth in May. For washing machines, Haier and Midea exported 973,000 and 868,000 units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 16.9% and 10.7%, continuously consolidating their leading advantages. Hisense exported 545,000 units, achieving substantial growth of 51.2% year-on-year.

The report posits that the strong overseas demand for refrigerators and washing machines is expected to persist. The continued deepening of overseas expansion by domestic brands will form a powerful支撑 for export growth, and the market share of leading brands is anticipated to steadily increase.

Risk factors include uncertainty regarding the continuity of subsidy policies for appliance replacement, potential反复 fluctuations in tariffs, and volatility in raw material costs.