The conflict between the United States and Iran is escalating further along a path of "attacking ships—striking infrastructure—retaliating against US interests—threatening oil supply."

On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump stated that from now on, every time Iran fires on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, the US will bomb and destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant. The Iranian military responded forcefully, warning that if the US strikes Iranian bridges or power plants, Iran will retaliatory strike energy and other regional infrastructure associated with US interests.

On the same day, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that America remains willing to negotiate with Iran, but if Iran continues to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, US military action will continue. Iran emphasized its capability to strike "any target it wishes" and stated it will not allow the Strait of Hormuz to become a tool to threaten Iran again. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf issued a more market-impacting warning: either everyone can sell oil, or no one can.

As Trump expands potential strike targets from military facilities to infrastructure like bridges and power plants, the retaliatory logic of the US-Iran conflict is clearly escalating. Former Iranian Foreign Minister and current parliament member Ali Akbar Salehi also stated that Iran possesses the capability to seize US military bases in Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain, and warned Ukraine against providing drones to Middle Eastern countries and the US, or else Ukrainian military facilities and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's residence could become "legitimate targets."

Trump Warns Iran Against Firing on Ships in Strait of Hormuz; US May Strike Tehran

On social media, Trump stated that if Iran fires on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, whether using missiles, rockets, drones, or other weapons, the US will "bomb and destroy a bridge or power plant."

Trump specifically emphasized that the targeted facility could be located in or near the capital city of Tehran.

This statement signifies that previous US threats to strike Iranian military targets are now expanding to include transportation and energy infrastructure.

Trump's threat comes as US Central Command recently completed a new round of strikes against Iranian military targets, with US military operations against Iran continuing over multiple nights. The US stated these actions aim to degrade Iran's ability to threaten commercial shipping and control the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz has become the core flashpoint in the current US-Iran conflict.

The US maintains that Iran cannot restrict international commercial shipping through force, threats, or fees; Iran emphasizes that security in the Strait of Hormuz must be led by Iran and requires passing ships to coordinate with Iranian authorities.

Iranian Military: Iran Has 'Iron Will' to Control the Strait

According to reports, an Iranian military source stated on Wednesday that if the US strikes Iranian bridges or power plants, Iran will retaliate by striking energy and other infrastructure in the region associated with US interests.

The source stated that the US "should have fully realized in the past 10 days that Iran has the ability to strike any target it wants to."

Iran also stated that it possesses an "iron will" in exercising control over the Strait of Hormuz and will not allow the strait to become a tool to threaten Iran again.

The Iranian military stated that ships passing through can transit the strait safely if they coordinate with and accept arrangements from Iranian authorities; otherwise, Iran will "firmly exercise its control over the strait."

This means Trump's threat of "proportional retaliation" was swiftly met with a counter-response from Iran.

If the US strikes Iranian bridges and power plants, Iran may target US energy, military logistics, and other related facilities in the Middle East. As both sides expand the scope of potential targets, there is a risk the conflict could spill over from shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz to the entire Gulf region's infrastructure network.

Iranian Parliament Speaker: Either Everyone Can Sell Oil, or No One Can

Compared to the Iranian military's retaliatory threats against US infrastructure, the latest statement from Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf directly points the risk of escalation to global oil supply.

Ghalibaf stated on social media: "The logic of this war is clear: either everyone can sell oil, or no one can. If we cannot sell oil in this region, no other country will be able to sell."

Ghalibaf also stated that if Iran's security is not guaranteed, no infrastructure will be safe.

He added that security in the Strait of Hormuz depends on the absence of US military presence in the region and reiterated that the situation in the strait will not return to its pre-war state.

"Hormuz will not return to its pre-war state" suggests Iran's signals are not merely short-term military threats.

From Iran's statements, even if the current military conflict eventually de-escalates, the shipping rules, military presence, and energy transport landscape of the Strait of Hormuz could undergo long-term changes.

Rubio: US Still Willing to Negotiate, But Violations Bring 'Consequences'

In tandem with Trump's tough threats, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated while attending ASEAN-related meetings in the Philippines that the US remains willing to negotiate with Iran, but on the condition that Iran fulfills its commitments.

Rubio warned that if Iran continues to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, the US will continue military action.

"We are willing to negotiate, but if Iran continues to violate its commitments, there will be consequences," Rubio said.

Rubio also stated that some countries have expressed interest in participating in protecting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz but have not formally joined related actions due to domestic legislative processes or international organization authorizations.

He said the US does not need these countries to participate but believes their involvement would be "beneficial," especially as some possess special capabilities like mine clearance. Rubio also emphasized that a significant portion of the oil and energy transported through the Strait of Hormuz ultimately flows to Asia, giving Asian countries a vested interest in maintaining navigational security.

Regarding China, Rubio stated that China's public opposition to imposing tolls on or restricting freedom of navigation for commercial shipping is "important." He did not directly respond to reports that Russia or other countries might provide target information to Iran.

Notably, Rubio also accused Iran of sending Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps personnel to Yemen, stating Iran's actions are fueling a new round of conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.

This indicates that from the US perspective, Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi actions in the Red Sea are forming broader regional pressure.

Former Iranian Foreign Minister: Iran Can Seize US Military Bases in Gulf Region

Iran's tough statements are not limited to the Strait of Hormuz.

In response to US threats of ground action against Iran, former Iranian Foreign Minister and current parliament member Ali Akbar Salehi stated that Iran possesses ground combat capabilities and has the ability to deploy forces to seize US military bases in Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain.

Salehi also stated that populations in these regions might support Iranian forces' actions.

If this threat translates into actual military operations, it would mean the risk of US-Iran conflict could escalate from airstrikes, missile, and drone confrontations to direct ground threats against US military bases in the Middle East.

Currently, the US has a massive military deployment in the Gulf region, with facilities in Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, and other Gulf countries forming a crucial logistical and command network for US forces in the Middle East. Iran has previously demonstrated its ability to strike US military facilities using missiles and drones.

Iran Warns Ukraine: Providing Drones Makes Its Facilities Targets

Salehi also issued a warning to Ukraine.

He stated that Ukraine should not continue providing drones to Middle Eastern countries and the US, or else Ukrainian military facilities and President Zelenskyy's residence could become "legitimate targets."

This statement further expands the geographical scope of Iran's public threats.

From Iran's perspective, any country providing military support to the US and its allies could be included in the scope of potential strikes. This also reflects Iran's attempt to deter more countries from directly or indirectly participating in US military actions in the Middle East by expanding its deterrence targets.

However, Salehi's statements are public remarks by a former foreign minister and current parliament member and do not equate to a formal military decision by the Iranian government. Currently, the key concern is whether such threats will be further incorporated into Iran's official military and foreign policy.

Prospects for US-Iran Negotiations Remain Under Pressure; Strait of Hormuz Becomes Conflict Escalation 'Trigger'

As military threats escalate, diplomatic space between the US and Iran is also narrowing.

Trump previously stated that Iran is "desperate to meet" but the US is not interested in talks until Iran is ready for "meaningful negotiations." Rubio on Wednesday continued to emphasize that the US has not closed the door to negotiations, but US military action will not automatically stop because of Iran's talk of talks.

The problem lies in the clear divergence between the two sides' understanding of "preconditions for negotiations."

The US demands Iran stop threatening navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and accept US-proposed arrangements; Iran believes US military strikes are the root cause of regional insecurity and insists on its dominant role over the Strait of Hormuz.

Against this backdrop, any ship attack incident in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger the infrastructure strikes threatened by Trump; and any US strike on Iranian bridges, power plants, or other facilities could trigger Iranian retaliation against US and allied regional infrastructure.

The US-Iran conflict is forming a dangerous escalation cycle: shipping conflict triggers military strikes, military strikes expand to infrastructure targets, and infrastructure strikes could trigger broader regional retaliation.

For energy markets, the continued escalation of risks in the Strait of Hormuz means global oil and natural gas supply chains will still face significant uncertainty. If the strait escalates from "shipping disruption" to large-scale military confrontation, the impact would far exceed US-Iran bilateral relations and could rapidly transmit to global energy prices, inflation expectations, and financial markets.