GLMS SEC has released a research report stating that improving domestic demand and rising oil prices are driving a strong trend of high growth in new energy vehicle exports. The firm is optimistic about the themes of international expansion, premiumization, and intelligentization. For auto parts, it recommends the intelligentization and earnings recovery chains.

Regarding commercial vehicles, the report notes that the vehicle replacement policy is boosting domestic demand for heavy trucks, combined with steady export growth. Bus exports demonstrate strong profitability. In North America, power shortages and the rapid growth of AI computing power are driving increased demand for data center construction and cooling solutions. For motorcycles, the report recommends leading companies in the medium and large displacement segment. The main views of Guolian Minsheng Securities Company Limited are as follows:

Passenger Vehicles: Weak Domestic Demand, Strong Exports, Structural Improvement Drives Margins

Sales: In Q4 2025, total passenger vehicle wholesale sales reached 8.788 million units, down 0.8% year-on-year but up 14.3% quarter-on-quarter. In Q1 2026, total sales were 5.869 million units, a decrease of 7.7% year-on-year and 33.2% quarter-on-quarter.

Revenue: In Q4 2025, revenue was 904.29 billion yuan, up 1.3% year-on-year and 17.1% quarter-on-quarter. In Q1 2026, average selling prices (ASP) diverged among automakers, with BYD and SAIC Motor seeing ASP increases. Revenue for eight sample companies reached 564.08 billion yuan, down 0.2% year-on-year and 31.1% quarter-on-quarter.

Gross Margin: The overall gross margin in Q4 2025 was 16.0%. In Q1 2026, the gross margin for key passenger vehicle manufacturers was 16.1%, showing little overall change but divergent performances. Exports, improved product mix, and cost reductions drove gross margins higher for companies like BYD and Geely, while other manufacturers saw margins decline due to sales impacts.

Net Profit: In Q4 2025, net profit attributable to shareholders was 18.62 billion yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year, with a net margin of 2.1%, down 0.1 percentage point year-on-year. Q1 2026 was further impacted by exchange losses due to RMB appreciation. Net profit for key automakers in Q1 2026 was 16.84 billion yuan, down 34.3% year-on-year and 7.0% quarter-on-quarter.

Auto Parts: Revenue Continues Growth, Intelligentization Shows Strong Profitability

Revenue: In Q4 2025, the auto parts sector revenue was 318.02 billion yuan, up 8.7% year-on-year and 12.8% quarter-on-quarter, primarily benefiting from the strong performance of core domestic brands and new energy vehicle supply chains. In Q1 2026, revenue was 256.97 billion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year but down 19.7% quarter-on-quarter, with the sequential decline mainly due to the traditional seasonal slowdown in Q1.

Profit: In Q4 2025, the sector's gross margin was 17.6%, up 1.0 percentage point year-on-year but down 0.6 percentage point quarter-on-quarter. In Q1 2026, the gross margin was 18.0%, up 0.5 percentage point year-on-year and 0.4 percentage point quarter-on-quarter. Affected by factors such as economies of scale, rising raw material costs, and currency exchange, the non-GAAP net margin attributable to shareholders decreased year-on-year but increased quarter-on-quarter.

Commercial Vehicles: Heavy Trucks Meet Expectations, Bus Profitability Rises

Heavy Trucks: Revenue for key companies in Q4 2025 was 118.13 billion yuan, up 23.5% year-on-year and 9.4% quarter-on-quarter. In Q1 2026, revenue was 121.42 billion yuan, up 16.6% year-on-year and 2.8% quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong domestic and export demand.

Gross Margin: For key heavy truck companies, gross margin in Q4 2025 was 15.6%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year but up 0.1 percentage point quarter-on-quarter. In Q1 2026, the gross margin was 14.9%, down 0.9 percentage point year-on-year and 0.6 percentage point quarter-on-quarter.

Buses: Revenue for key companies in Q4 2025 was 25.93 billion yuan, up 6.9% year-on-year and 37.9% quarter-on-quarter, meeting expectations. In Q1 2026, revenue was 14.13 billion yuan, up 3.2% year-on-year but down 45.5% quarter-on-quarter.

Net Profit Margin: For key bus companies, the net profit margin in Q4 2025 was 9.9%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year and 1.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. In Q1 2026, the bus net profit margin was 6.7%, flat year-on-year but down 3.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter.

Motorcycles: Accelerated Development of Medium and Large Displacement Drives Profitability Upward

Sales: In Q4 2025, sales were 191,000 units, up 3.9% year-on-year but down 26.5% quarter-on-quarter. In Q1 2026, sales were 187,000 units, down 8.5% year-on-year and 1.8% quarter-on-quarter.

Revenue: In Q4 2025, total revenue for key motorcycle companies was 14.67 billion yuan, up 9.1% year-on-year but down 4.9% quarter-on-quarter. In Q1 2026, revenue was 15.36 billion yuan, up 6.8% year-on-year and 4.7% quarter-on-quarter, with the primary growth coming from large-displacement motorcycles and accelerated exports.

Profit: In Q4 2025, the overall net profit margin for key motorcycle enterprises was 7.6%, up 0.4 percentage point year-on-year but down 2.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. In Q1 2026, the net profit margin was 7.8%, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year but up 0.2 percentage point quarter-on-quarter.

Risk Warnings: Intensifying competition in the automotive industry; demand falling short of expectations; slower-than-expected progress in autonomous driving development; slower-than-expected development of the robotics industry; risks associated with raw material price fluctuations; risks associated with exchange rate fluctuations.