According to Woofun AI, Bitcoin's price has once again lost the $85,000 mark, with market attention quickly shifting to the critical $81,000 support level identified by Glassnode.

This pullback occurred against a backdrop of shrinking trading volumes and sluggish new capital inflows, signaling momentum exhaustion following a brief breakout.

Despite fluctuating market sentiment, on-chain data reveals a deeper structural divergence: on one hand, macroeconomic headwinds are suppressing short-term rebounds, while on the other, long-term holders' reluctance to sell and net exchange outflows suggest a potential bottoming process is underway.

The market is currently at a sensitive juncture where bullish and bearish forces are rebalancing, and any directional breakout will require effective confirmation at key price levels.

The more critical variable is that new capital inflows are insufficient to support current market capitalization expansion, with price movements driven more by turnover of existing capital, making the battle between technical support and resistance levels particularly intense.

Macroeconomic uncertainty continues to build, as the Federal Reserve meeting minutes released on Wednesday showed most officials favor another rate hike within the year, a hawkish stance that directly impacted risk asset pricing.

Bitcoin came under pressure immediately after the minutes were released but rebounded 0.18% within the following 5 minutes, trading at $83,079 at the time of writing, with a cumulative 24-hour decline of 1.8%.

Notably, historical data shows that Bitcoin's reaction to U.S. economic data exhibits a "short-term bullish, long-term bearish" pattern: it briefly rose 2% after PCE inflation data was released, but fell 2.3% within 12 hours after the October 2 employment data was published, whereas the S&P 500 Index was able to maintain its prior level after data releases.

Woofun AI data shows that combined daily spot and ETF market trading volume is approximately $6.8 billion, below levels seen on 90% of trading days since January 2024, indicating significantly cooled market activity.

U.S. domestic demand is also weak, with the Coinbase (COIN.US) Premium Index registering -0.056; a negative reading means Bitcoin's price on Coinbase is lower than on Binance, and this index has remained below the zero line since early September.

On the capital inflow front, over the 30 days ending October 5, ETF fund flows, stablecoin issuance, and corporate cash purchases brought approximately $4.9 billion in incremental capital, while Bitcoin's total market capitalization grew by approximately $12.8 billion at the latest prices.

New capital can only explain two-fifths of the price increase, with the remainder stemming from high-price turnover of existing capital, similar to the rally logic in 2024 and 2025, though capital inflows were larger at that time.

Until new capital accelerates, price movement will depend on the selling willingness of existing holders.

The divergence in holding behavior further highlights the structural contradictions within the market.

On October 4, when Bitcoin first closed above $85,000 in a single day, some holders chose to cash out, with new buyers holding for 155 days or less accounting for 86% of exchange inflows that day, a new high over the past year.

Analyst MAC_D noted that futures traders remain on the sidelines, with total open interest declining nearly 10% since September 22, from $28.8 billion to $26 billion.

However, Santiment data reveals another side: on October 5, 24,073 BTC flowed out of exchanges, the highest since March 1, with exchange holdings currently representing 6.50% of total supply.

This outflow is viewed as a bullish signal, meaning less spot supply is available for immediate sale.

Order book depth analysis shows that as of October 7, the largest buy wall on Binance was located between $81,000 and $81,250, and has remained in this range since October 3.

Slightly above this range, between $81,700 and $83,300, there is a cluster of liquidation orders that could push prices lower if leveraged longs are forced to close.

Further below, liquidation orders are located near $75,000.

On the upside path, if Bitcoin can close above $85,500, it could reclaim this week's losses; there is selling pressure in the $86,500 to $86,750 range above, while liquidation orders are distributed in the higher $87,100 to $95,900 range, with the densest sell orders near $92,000.

Breaking through these ranges could trigger short squeezes and drive prices higher.

The next key macroeconomic catalyst is the October 14 CPI data release, which comes approximately two weeks before the Fed's October 27 and 28 meetings, and the market will closely watch how inflation data affects policy expectations.