Gold Market Analysis: On March 19, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision was announced, conveying a clear hawkish stance. International spot gold surged before plunging on Wednesday, dropping over 3% for the day. It opened lower on Thursday and traded sideways, currently hovering around $2,433 per ounce. Short-term negative factors have been largely priced in, and the market is entering a consolidation phase. The Fed maintained interest rates at 5.25%-5.50% and the dot plot indicated only one rate cut in 2026, delayed until the second half of the year. Chair Powell emphasized persistent inflation, reinforcing the "higher for longer" interest rate narrative, which boosted the US dollar and Treasury yields, becoming the primary catalyst for gold's sharp decline. Current hawkish expectations are largely reflected in prices, limiting further significant downside in the near term. Ongoing Middle East tensions and continued central bank gold purchases provide underlying support. Safe-haven and allocation flows are gradually returning after the sell-off, with selling pressure beginning to wane. A sustained sharp decline is unlikely, with consolidation expected to dominate.
Technically, on the daily chart, gold has broken below several key moving averages. The MACD shows expanding green bars and the RSI is near oversold territory, indicating short-term bearish dominance but with slowing downward momentum, suggesting a potential technical rebound. Blindly chasing the downtrend carries high risk. The Thursday session low near $2,430 serves as initial support, with stronger support at the $2,400 psychological level. A break below could target $2,370. Resistance is clear, with initial resistance at $2,460 and a key level at $2,490. A sustained move above $2,490 is needed to confirm a rebound.
Post-Fed decision, market sentiment has shifted from panic to caution. Gold is expected to consolidate between $2,400 and $2,490. Holding above $2,430 could lead to a rebound towards $2,460 and $2,490. A break below $2,400 may renew selling pressure, targeting $2,370-$2,350-$2,300. The overall bias is for weak consolidation, favoring short positions on rallies with long positions as secondary trades.
Gold Trading Recommendations: 1. Short on rallies: Enter around $2,458-$2,462, stop loss above $2,503, target $2,430, $2,400, extend to $2,370-$2,350 if broken. 2. Long on support: Enter on a bounce from $2,428-$2,435, stop loss below $2,398, target $2,455, $2,460.
Silver Market Analysis: International spot silver plunged over 5% on Wednesday, opening lower and trading in a narrow range on Thursday around $75.6 per ounce. Silver's dual nature as a haven and industrial metal led to a steeper decline than gold. On the daily chart, silver has broken below all short-term moving averages. The MACD shows expanding green bars and the RSI is in oversold territory, indicating bearish control but also increasing potential for a technical rebound. Avoid chasing the downtrend. Initial support is at the Thursday low of $75.5, with stronger support at $74.5. A break below targets $73.0. Resistance is at $77.0, with a key level at $78.0 needed to confirm a sustained rebound.
Post-Fed, panic has subsided. Silver is expected to consolidate between $74.5 and $78.0. Holding above $75.5 could lead to a test of $77.0 and $78.0. A break below $74.5 may target $73.0-$72.5. The overall trend is consolidation, with a strategy of cautious shorting on rallies and careful long positions on dips.
Silver Trading Recommendations: 1. Short on rallies: Enter around $76.8-$77.0, stop loss above $78.1, target $75.5, $74.5, extend to $73.0 if broken. 2. Long on support: Enter on a bounce from $75.3-$75.5, stop loss below $74.4, target $76.5, $77.0.