Uncertainty surrounding the situation in Iran has kept US retail gasoline prices stubbornly hovering around $4 per gallon, a level considered high for the late summer period. Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at Gulf Oil, stated, "We're paying more for fuel this time of year than ever before, and for August, it's quite high." Summer is the peak driving season in the US, typically driving up fuel costs, while prices usually decline in autumn as seasonal demand eases and restrictions on fuel blending due to high temperatures are lifted.

According to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), as of Wednesday, the average US gasoline price was approximately $4.04 per gallon, about 90 cents higher than the average price a year ago. During the Iran conflict, gasoline prices surged as oil prices rose, particularly because the conflict significantly reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane. The last major spike in gasoline prices occurred during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict. That year, the average US gasoline price briefly jumped to just over $5 per gallon. However, by August of that year, prices had begun to fall. According to the Energy Information Administration, the average price in August 2022 was $4.09 per gallon. Historical data shows that by August 12 of that year, the average US price had dropped to $3.99 per gallon. In August 2023, the highest monthly average price was around $3.95 per gallon.

Meanwhile, Kloza predicts that prices may remain elevated for the next four to five weeks. Similarly, Jim Mitchell, head of oil trading analysis at Wood Mackenzie, stated that he expects gasoline prices to stay high for the next four to six weeks but should decrease after that. "Winter gasoline incorporates much cheaper blending components. So, after getting through the next roughly four to six weeks, the upward price pressure on gasoline will ease significantly," Mitchell said. Kloza mentioned that fuel prices and overall fuel affordability are expected to be core issues influencing votes around the US midterm elections. "Over the next roughly 90 days, there won't be a catastrophic price surge, but prices will remain historically high for this time of year," he said. He also noted that unless a highly destructive hurricane occurs, the national average gasoline price is likely to stay in the range of $3.50 to $3.75 per gallon.

Kloza also indicated that drone strikes in Russia and the Middle East are reducing global oil refining capacity, driving up prices. "Right now, this is not a crude oil production crisis but more of a refined product production crisis," he said. Kloza warned that US consumers might see a rise in the cost of everyday consumer goods due to high diesel prices for trucks used to transport goods. "The biggest future issue for the CPI will come from increased freight and transportation costs tied to high diesel prices," he said.