Key data points for aluminum spot prices: According to SMM data, East China A00 aluminum was priced at 23,690 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan from the previous session, with a spot premium/discount of -30 yuan per ton, a decline of 10 yuan. Central China A00 aluminum stood at 23,540 yuan per ton, with a spot premium/discount of -180 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the prior session. Foshan A00 aluminum was recorded at 23,800 yuan per ton, a decrease of 30 yuan, with a spot premium/discount of 80 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan.

For aluminum futures: On August 5, 2026, the main Shanghai aluminum contract opened at 23,800 yuan per ton and closed at 23,785 yuan per ton, up 60 yuan from the previous close. The session high reached 23,840 yuan, and the low was 23,665 yuan. Total trading volume for the day was 111,806 lots, with open interest at 240,104 lots.

Inventory data: As of August 5, 2026, SMM data shows domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory at 958,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the prior period. Warrant inventory was 311,401 tons, down 3,918 tons, while LME aluminum inventory was 259,400 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons.

Alumina spot prices: On August 5, 2026, SMM alumina prices were 2,730 yuan per ton in Shanxi, 2,710 yuan in Shandong, 2,740 yuan in Henan, 2,625 yuan in Guangxi, 2,765 yuan in Guizhou, and the Australian FOB price was $346 per ton.

Alumina futures: The main alumina contract opened at 2,639 yuan per ton on August 5, 2026, closing at 2,666 yuan, up 28 yuan from the previous close, a change of 1.06%. The session high was 2,674 yuan, and the low was 2,632 yuan. Total trading volume was 152,403 lots, with open interest at 200,025 lots.

Aluminum alloy prices: As of August 5, 2026, Baotai civilian-grade used aluminum purchase price was 18,100 yuan per ton, with mechanical used aluminum at 18,300 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day. ADC12 was quoted at 23,400 yuan per ton, also unchanged. Aluminum alloy social inventory was 15,700 tons, with in-plant inventory at 75,600 tons. The theoretical total cost was 23,807 yuan per ton, with a theoretical profit of -107 yuan per ton.

Strategy Analysis

Electrolytic aluminum: The US ADP employment data fell significantly short of expectations, improving macroeconomic sentiment and driving a broad rally in non-ferrous metals. However, aluminum prices remained relatively weak. The inclusion of electrolytic aluminum in carbon quota assessments has a limited actual impact on costs. August is in the early stages of the traditional domestic consumption peak season, but export markets face pressure amid a recovery in price ratios. Inventory destocking is being disrupted, and processing fees for products like aluminum rods and bars have fallen sharply from recent highs. The trend in short-term inventory warrants close attention. While the long-term view for destocking remains unchanged, the pace of decline is expected to slow, testing the strength of the traditional consumption season. Absolute inventory levels have fallen below 1 million tons but remain at relatively high levels. Micro-level data offers little bullish support, which will cap upward price potential. At the same time, support from the marginal highest cost levels overseas limits downside risks.

Alumina: Driven by improved sentiment, alumina prices have staged an oversold rebound. The overseas market remains relatively strong, with the domestic-to-international price spread widening. After a sharp decline on the exchange, alumina prices are now at a significant discount to spot prices, suggesting an oversold condition. The domestic supply surplus has not fundamentally changed. However, most of the new capacity in the Guangxi region has been brought online, and one plant has delayed its production start. The worst phase of the oversupply expectation has passed. On the cost side, the bottom for Guinean bauxite FOB prices may have been reached. With crude oil prices still experiencing significant volatility, the probability of a decline in mining costs is low. Although policy expectations for Guinea have not materialized, combined with the rainy season, export volumes are still declining month-on-month, which strengthens the support floor for alumina prices. Options strategies can be used in conjunction.

Risks

1. Unexpected policy disruptions from overseas markets. 2. Unexpected changes in liquidity conditions. 3. New disruptions to overseas ore supply.