A report from Zhongtai Securities highlights three key trends in the global commercial aviation engine OEM market: new aircraft deliveries driven by single-aisle models like the LEAP series, a persistent supply-demand gap, and tight capacity at overseas component leaders, which creates opportunities for supply chain diversification. China's commercial aviation engines are not yet self-sufficient, with the domestic market projected to exceed $360 billion in new engine sales over the next 20 years, requiring over 1,000 engines annually by the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The report suggests focusing on domestic engine core suppliers and opportunities for Chinese parts to enter global markets.
Global OEM engine deliveries are rising, yet the supply-demand gap continues to widen. The current OEM market for commercial aviation engines shows three features: single-aisle models like the LEAP series are driving higher delivery volumes, with the global aircraft fleet expected to grow from 30,000 units in 2026 to 41,100 units by 2036, at a CAGR of 3.2%, led by narrow-body aircraft (CAGR 4.2%). In new engine deliveries, the LEAP and PW1000G series will be the main models from 2025 to 2034, with 24,500 LEAP engines delivered, while for wide-body models, the TRENT series will see 3,342 deliveries and the GENX series 2,328 deliveries. By 2034, the LEAP series will increase its share of in-service engines from 11% in 2025 to 36%, becoming the dominant single-aisle power source, while CFM56's share drops to 15%, PW1000G rises to 16%, and V2500 and CF34 remain at 3% and 5%, respectively. The supply-demand gap is severe, with LEAP deliveries rising from 1,802 units in 2025 to 2,500 units by 2028, and a backlog of over 17,000 aircraft orders, where engine production remains a key bottleneck. Overseas component leaders face tight capacity, creating opportunities for supply chain diversification.
Howmet Aerospace, a top global supplier of aerospace forgings and fasteners, offers products like engine fasteners, quick-release fasteners, structural fasteners, and castings/forgings. After its 2020 spin-off, its fixed assets dropped sharply, but began recovering by 2024, with capital expenditure remaining at historically low levels since 2020.
The global engine MRO market is booming, with next-generation engine aftermarket entering a golden period. Over the next decade, the global aviation engine MRO market is expected to exceed $600 billion, with maintenance revenue typically at least four times new engine sales. From 2025 to 2034, global engine MRO demand is projected at $689 billion, with CFM International, GE Aviation, and Rolls-Royce holding 36%, 29%, and 16% shares, respectively. In typical engine repair costs, the fan and booster account for about 20%, high-pressure compressor 20%, combustor and high-pressure turbine 45%, and low-pressure turbine 15%, with blades representing 49% of repair costs, the highest. MRO demand is surging, driven by: lower-than-expected durability of new engines (like LEAP and GTF series), and ongoing shortages of key parts (e.g., forgings, castings, high-pressure turbine disks), which impede both new engine production and MRO capacity. The MRO mix is shifting from older to newer models, with LEAP's share jumping from 4% to 24% by 2034, becoming the largest MRO growth driver. Higher technical barriers and concentrated supply chains for new engines are straining existing MRO capabilities, highlighting capacity bottlenecks.
China's domestic engine development and certification are progressing, with significant substitution potential. China's commercial engines are not yet self-controlled, with the new market exceeding $360 billion over 20 years and annual demand surpassing 1,000 engines during the 15th Five-Year Plan. The global market is highly oligopolistic, dominated by CFM, GE Aviation, Pratt & Whitney, and Rolls-Royce. The China Aviation Engine Commercial Aircraft Engine Co., Ltd., the country's main designer and manufacturer of large bypass turbofan engines, is developing the CJ1000 and CJ2000 series. The CJ-1000A has completed key tests and is in certification, with expectations for a Type Certificate (TC) by 2027 and mass production by 2030. The report recommends focusing on domestic core suppliers and parts export opportunities.
By component, large bypass turbofan engines like the TF39 have high value shares for fans (19.4%) and outer casings (15.9%), along with high-pressure turbines (11.8%) and low-pressure turbines (23.2%). By parts, blades, discs/shafts, and casings account for 29%, 16%, and 14% of large turbofan engines, respectively.
Risks include: slower-than-expected domestic engine development, certification delays for exported parts, deviations in market demand forecasts, and industry chain technology and quality control risks.