Fresh data from the National Bureau of Statistics reveals that Guangzhou's new home prices continued their upward trajectory in July, marking the fifth consecutive month of gains since March and signaling a consolidating market recovery.
Hot-selling projects under new regulations have withdrawn their discounts as market momentum strengthens. In July, the city's new residential property price index rose 0.1% month-on-month, according to the 70-city housing price report released recently.
Several developments have outperformed expectations even during the typically slow summer season. Poly Yunrui in Baiyun District achieved over 90% sales absorption at its late-June launch, generating 1.5 billion yuan in subscription value and claiming the triple crown for online contract signings—in units, value, and floor area—in July, capturing nearly 30% of Baiyun's market share. Similarly, Poly Haiyun in Haizhu District sold 268 of 396 units on its mid-May opening day, an absorption rate of 68%, and has continued to lead district-wide online signings through July and August.
Buoyed by robust sales, many projects have rolled back earlier promotional discounts. Market reports indicate that Poly Yunrui withdrew its 2% opening discount in July, while Liwan Yijing Bay under Poly Property raised unit prices by 3%. In the same Liwan district, Julong Bay · Yuanshe increased its latest launch prices by approximately 2,000 yuan per square meter. Vanke Huangpu New City Phase 4 Manjing, which entered the market in late July offering three-to-four-bedroom units ranging from 78 to 109 square meters, is now priced at around 25,000 yuan per square meter—up from the project's previous average of 22,000 yuan—yet still achieved over 90% absorption.
A veteran Guangzhou-based agent noted that some new projects have indeed pulled back discounts of 1-2 percentage points recently. An industry insider added that while most projects continue to sell below their pre-sale filing prices, a growing number are quietly raising prices. The agent observed that discount withdrawals and price hikes are primarily concentrated in products built under new regulations, leaving older-standard properties to compete mainly on price.
According to data from Purui Digital Intelligence's Guangzhou-Foshan division, among 340 residential projects with transactions in both June and July, 180 saw average price declines while 160 recorded increases, highlighting significant market divergence. Notably, 214 projects—or 62.9%—experienced price fluctuations within 5%, indicating generally moderate price movement, with the gap between rising and falling projects narrowing to just 20.
Xiao Wenxiao, chief analyst at Purui Digital Intelligence's Guangzhou-Foshan division, believes the market has moved past the phase of widespread declines. Since housing transactions stabilized in March, some best-selling projects have begun withdrawing discounts and discreetly raising prices when launching new building phases or product lines in June and July, reflecting marginally improved developer confidence.
Chen Xueqiang, research supervisor at China Index Academy's Guangzhou branch, attributed the price adjustments to two factors: weakened promotional intensity following mid-year sales campaigns, and better positioning of newly released units in premium central locations where earlier phases sold well. Additionally, rising land auction activity in June and July—with multiple high-quality parcels sold at significant premiums—has boosted price expectations for surrounding hot-selling projects.
Most developments, however, continue to maintain stable pricing. As July is traditionally a slow season, market supply dropped notably, with new housing supply of approximately 278,300 square meters down over 30% month-on-month and 2,255 units supplied, a decline exceeding 40%. Transaction volume correspondingly fell by more than 20% month-on-month. Despite the volume reduction, the average transaction price reached 34,700 yuan per square meter, up 7.03% year-on-year, with average unit prices rising 11.6% year-on-year—evidence that structural price support remains solid amid stable pricing.
The National Bureau of Statistics data showing five consecutive months of month-on-month price increases for both new and existing homes in Guangzhou is largely attributable to transaction mix effects. Chen Xueqiang explained that on the new home front, targeted policy support has boosted upgrade and improvement demand, with premium projects—those in prime locations with mature amenities and strong product appeal—achieving standout sales. Their higher unit prices are lifting the overall average. For existing homes, declining listing volumes have reduced the availability of lower-priced inventory, while increased activity in central urban areas for quality resale units continues to drive transaction prices upward.
Looking ahead, Chen expects most projects to maintain stable pricing with transaction volumes gradually recovering, though divergence will persist. Quality developments in core areas should continue commanding firm prices with relatively faster absorption, while less competitive projects on the periphery will likely rely on discounts and promotional tactics to drive sales.