Option Focus | Netflix’s $0.73 Million Bearish Call-Selling Dominates as Institutions Cap Upside at $80, Despite One $0.48 Million Bullish Bet on $74 Calls

Option Witch
Jul 29

Netflix Inc. closed at USD 72.39, rising 2.83% from the previous session.

Large options trades in NFLX revealed a tilt toward bearish positioning, as call-selling flow of $0.73 million overwhelmed a single $0.48 million bullish call purchase. The dominant trade involved selling upside calls at the $80 strike, while one buyer targeted the $74 strike, both expiring in July 2026, creating a conflicted but ultimately cautious tape.

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Options Indicators

NFLX’s implied volatility is 36.67%, and with an IV percentile of 44.62%, current option volatility sits in a neutral range rather than at an extreme. The IV/HV ratio of 0.90 suggests implied volatility is slightly below realized volatility, so option pricing does not appear stretched; overall, NFLX options look fairly priced to modestly inexpensive rather than richly valued. The Call/Put volume ratio is 2.71.

Large Trades

A CALL buy worth $0.48 million targeted the 74.0 strike expiring on 2026-07-31, with 4,888 contracts traded. With NFLX referenced at $72.39, this call was slightly out of the money, making it a moderately bullish directional bet that seeks upside participation if the stock pushes above the strike over the coming year. The size and long-dated tenor suggest the buyer was positioning for a meaningful advance rather than expressing a very short-term view.

A CALL sale worth $0.03 million targeted the 80.0 strike expiring on 2026-07-31, with 7,350 contracts traded. With the stock at $72.39, this call was out of the money, so the trade reflects a bearish-to-neutral stance through upside premium sale, implying expectations that NFLX may stay below 80.0 into expiration or at least fail to rally enough for that strike to become meaningfully valuable. As a single-leg short call, the strategic intent points to premium collection and capped-upside positioning rather than aggressive bullish exposure.

Overall large-trade sentiment leaned bearish, with bullish flow totaling $0.48 million versus bearish flow of $0.73 million, leaving a net difference of $0.24 million to the bearish side. The directional judgment is therefore mildly bearish, as the bullish activity was concentrated in one out-of-the-money long call purchase, while the broader large-trade mix was dominated by call selling, which typically reflects either premium harvesting or skepticism about substantial upside. In short, the tape showed some interest in upside exposure, but the aggregate large-trade profile still favored a cautious to bearish view on NFLX.

Strategy Reference

Sellers seeking a low assignment probability might consider the $80 call, which already attracted heavy selling volume, while a bear call spread could be constructed by selling the $80 call and buying a higher-strike call to cap risk without posting substantial uncovered margin.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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