Unitree Technology has successfully gone public, and many onlookers are calculating the fortunes made. The founder of Unitree Technology has been touted as the youngest billionaire in the industry, but the most talked-about image lately is the stern face of Wang Xingxing that seems unable to crack a smile. As an ambitious young person, looking at Unitree Technology's performance, if I were Wang Xingxing, I wouldn't be smiling either—having not cashed out a single cent, he has been pushed to the forefront by capital and made a target.

As the lead underwriter, CITIC Securities explicitly warned in its initial public offering announcement on the STAR Market of the "risk of insufficient liquidity": In the early stages of listing, due to the 36-month or no-less-than-12-month lock-up periods for original shareholders, the 24-month lock-up for the sponsor's affiliated subsidiary's follow-on investment, the 36-month or 12-month restrictions for senior management and core employees participating in strategic placement through special asset management plans, the no-less-than-12-month lock-up for other strategic investors, and the 6-month lock-up for 10% of the final allotment to offline investors, the total share capital after issuance is 404.46434 million shares, of which the initial unlimited tradable shares are 30.08772 million, accounting for only 7.44% of the total. The limited float in early trading creates a risk of insufficient liquidity. However, this issuance structure theoretically allows a large number of institutions participating in offline placement to influence the market opening, sell at high prices, while retail investors, driven by dreams of robotics, become shareholders overnight.

Where the Warning Came From

Under the current IPO media narrative, mainstream outlets have largely played the role of cheerleaders, but there have been sober voices regarding Unitree Technology. Prior to its listing, Liberation Daily published a signed commentary on August 13, 2026, titled "Beware the Unitree IPO Capital Bubble," which, just as Unitree Technology (688836) concluded its subscription and before its debut, pointed directly to the valuation risks implied by its 219-fold issuance price-to-earnings ratio. Six days later, on August 19, 2026, Unitree Technology surged 629.44% to 1,100 yuan per share at the open, reaching a peak market cap of 444.9 billion yuan, closing up 460.34% at 845 yuan, with a market cap of 341.8 billion yuan, turnover exceeding 85%, and intraday volatility of 145%. Then began the value regression.

Commentary Key Points vs. Market Reality

The commentary's core judgment: the 219.23-fold issuance P/E ratio far exceeded the industry average, with valuation overextending future prospects. Reality: the issuance price was 150.80 yuan per share, corresponding to a market cap of 60.993 billion yuan; on the first day, the peak market cap of 444.9 billion yuan represented a premium of over six times the issuance value. The commentary noted revenue dependence on university and research institute procurement, with commercialization not yet scaled. Reality: the prospectus showed revenues of 159 million yuan, 393 million yuan, and 1.699 billion yuan for 2023-2025, with 2025 non-GAAP net profit of 236-283 million yuan, and first-half 2026 revenue growth narrowing to 35.62%-45.41%, with non-GAAP net profit declining 21.97%-6.43% year-over-year. The commentary highlighted record-low online subscription rates and structural chip risks. Reality: 9.7846 million online valid subscription accounts, with a winning rate of 0.01809759%, a historic low for the STAR Market. The commentary warned of a tiny float easily swayed by small capital. Reality: initial unlimited tradable shares were 30.0877 million, or 7.44% of total share capital.

The "90% Unrestricted" Offline Institutions and the "Liang Wenfengs" Who Cashed Out

The Liberation Daily commentary predicted the stock would be hyped. Authorities were also aware; just before listing, mainstream media like Shanghai Securities News uniformly published clarifications that Unitree Technology's gray market was being traded at 530 yuan, ostensibly saying there is no gray market for A-shares, but I felt regulators might have thought 530 yuan was too high. However, the night before listing, dining with friends, I said, given the chips and trend, this crowd would push the price to 1,000 yuan. The next day, my prediction came true.

Why did I think so? First, offline institutions with "90% unrestricted" shares would be foolish not to sell at high prices. Unitree Technology adopted a proportional lock-up method for offline issuance: 90% of the shares allotted to offline investors had no lock-up period, tradable immediately from listing date; only 10% (rounded up) were locked for 6 months. According to Unitree Technology's announcement, of the 22.650148 million shares finally issued offline, Class A investors, primarily public funds, received 19.333754 million shares, accounting for 85.36% of total offline issuance—90% of these chips could theoretically be cashed out at will on the first day. This proportional lock-up arrangement stems from the CSRC's June 2024 "Eight Measures for the STAR Market" and the Shanghai Stock Exchange's January 2025 revised "Initial Offering Underwriting Rules": unprofitable companies may adopt agreed lock-up methods, setting different lock-up ratios or periods for offline issuance, with specific tiers determined by the issuer and lead underwriter and disclosed in advance, without a single mandatory exchange ratio. For comparison, ChangXin Technology's offline lock-up ratio was 70% (i.e., only 30% unrestricted), significantly stricter—both are benchmark new listings on the STAR Market this year, yet lock-up arrangements differ notably.

Second, the mechanism rewards the "Liang Wenfengs" while retail investors dream. According to Securities Daily and Wind data, 107 public fund institutions participated in preliminary inquiries, with 95 public fund institutions under 5,117 products ultimately participating in offline placement, subscribing 36.11 billion shares and receiving 12.0684 million shares worth 1.82 billion yuan. Leading institutions by allotment amount (per public fund ranking data): E Fund received 258 million yuan, Southern Fund 217-218 million yuan, ICBC Credit Suisse Fund 190 million yuan, China Asset Management 109 million yuan, Guotai Fund 108 million yuan, China Merchants Fund 103 million yuan, with Harvest Fund, GF Fund, Bosera Fund, and Haitong Fund each receiving over 60 million yuan; 17 other public funds including China Universal, Lion Fund, Invesco Great Wall, Dacheng Fund, Tianhong Fund, Ruiyuan Fund, Penghua Fund, Fortune SG Fund, and AIG-Huatai each received over 10 million yuan. Star fund manager products: E Fund's Zhang Kun's three products received 1.754 million yuan; GF's Liu Gesong's four products received 2.52 million yuan; Lion's Ge Lan's two products received 1.26 million yuan; China Merchants Fund's Liu Yanchun's one product received 630,000 yuan; Yongying Fund's Gao Nan's five products received 1.7638 million yuan.

Private funds, per The Paper, saw 134-135 private institutions with 2,833-2,839 products receive offline allotments totaling approximately 2.5256-2.5443 million shares, worth about 380-384 million yuan. Leading quantitative private funds: Century Frontier received 230 products worth 33.9315 million yuan, Nine Kun Investment 205 products worth 31.6098 million yuan, Ningbo High-Flyer Quant 155 products worth 29.4076 million yuan, Shanghai Yanfu 271 products (highest count) worth 28.9093 million yuan, Shanghai Minghong 96 products worth 20.5997 million yuan, Shanghai Chengqi 180 products worth 19.5088 million yuan. Other 10-billion-yuan private funds receiving over 10 million yuan include Jiaqi Private Fund, Wanyan Asset, Mingshi Fund, and Jinde Private Fund. On the fundamental side, Shanghai Chongyang Strategic Investment received 4.3726 million yuan across 9 products, Yingshui 2.8439 million yuan across 33 products, Linyuan Investment 1.171 million yuan across 34 products, and Renhong 1.3197 million yuan across 6 products. Entities linked to Liang Wenfeng: Ningbo High-Flyer Quant's 155 products received approximately 195,000 shares (29.4077 million yuan); Zhejiang Jiuzhang Asset's 43 products received 63,200 shares (9.5297 million yuan); the two private funds together received 258,200 shares across 198 products, totaling approximately 38.9374 million yuan.

Insurance funds, per Yicai, saw about 37 insurance companies and asset management firms receive approximately 6.8297 million shares offline, worth nearly 1.03 billion yuan, with Taikang Asset leading at 1.82 million shares. According to Securities China, Taikang Asset, China Life, and Ping An were the top three insurance institutions. Insurance participation showed a dual-path feature of "indirect LP holdings in primary market private funds plus offline subscription additions": CPIC, AIA, and MetLife participated indirectly through Nanjing Jingwei Chuang No. 3; Ruizhong Life, New China Life, and Zijin Insurance relied on equity investment layouts; China Post Life entered via the China Internet Investment Fund.

Bank wealth management, per Securities Times and Securities China, saw six bank wealth management companies—Everbright Wealth, Minsheng Wealth, Ningyin Wealth, CMB Wealth, Nanyin Wealth, and China Post Wealth—directly receive allotments across 53 wealth management products, totaling 140,100 shares worth 21.1277 million yuan; Xinyin Wealth disclosed indirect participation through 10 IPO accounts and 8 equity accounts, receiving 39,200 shares (5.9156 million yuan). Seven wealth management companies together received approximately 179,300 shares.

Strategic placement (separate from offline placement): a total of 8.089286 million shares, or 20% of issuance, went to 9 investors, including the National Social Security Fund Council (three portfolios, receiving 933,400 shares/141 million yuan, locked for 12 months), Hangzhou DeepSeek AI Infrastructure Technology Co., Ltd. (DeepSeek, receiving 933,400 shares/141 million yuan, locked for 36 months, the longest lock-up among the nine), CNPC Kunlun Capital, China Southern Power Grid Industrial Finance, China Telecom's Tianyi Capital, and Tencent's Shanghai Qishan Investment each receiving approximately 903,300 shares/136 million yuan, locked for 12 months; additionally, CITIC Securities Investment as sponsor's affiliate followed on with 808,900 shares (122 million yuan), locked for 24 months.

Expert Reform Proposals and Global Comparison

New listings, share reductions, and dividends remain perennial topics for A-shares. Given the huge volatility of Unitree Technology's trading, new listing and reduction mechanisms indeed require reform. First, Liu Jipeng's three core proposals (not a simplistic "no dividends, no reduction"): the widely circulated "no dividends, no reduction" is a simplified version; his complete recommendations include grandfathering and tiered constraints for new listings: cap the largest shareholder's stake at 30% pre-listing, diversify shareholding early to reduce post-listing selling pressure; link reductions to dividends: major shareholders and actual controllers may only reduce in batches after cumulative dividends meet a threshold (e.g., exceeding IPO fundraising); set a floor price for reductions: reduction prices tied to performance and market index, with reductions prohibited below a preset floor.

Second, Hong Kong's "one hand per person" mechanism and its limitations: under the Hong Kong red shoe mechanism, 50% of public offering shares go to retail Group A (ensuring each valid account gets at least one lot), and 50% to institutional Group B, spreading chips relatively evenly in hot new listings. However, this mechanism is not a panacea: it spawns numerous "one-hand parties" piling into new subscriptions, with oversubscription reaching hundreds or thousands of times, and new stocks still face wild swings and breakage risks; moreover, Hong Kong's inquiry allocation logic, account system, and institutional inquiry pricing differ significantly from A-shares, making direct transplantation problematic for underwriting adaptation.

Third, the special nature of China's retail investor structure is an unavoidable variable in discussions of transplanting systems from Hong Kong or the US: Unitree Technology saw 9.7846 million online subscription accounts, yet only 19,414 winning numbers, with most retail investors left empty-handed; offline institutions dominated with 85.36% of shares, with 95 public fund institutions (5,117 products), 134-135 private funds (about 2,839 products), about 37 insurance companies, and 6 bank wealth management companies dividing offline chips—a level of institutionalization and concentration far exceeding the market structure that Hong Kong's "one hand per person" design intended to address. If the Hong Kong retail-priority allocation approach were simply transplanted, with A-shares' 9.78 million subscription base, per-account allotments would be diluted to extremely low levels, and actual effects might diverge from intent. Allocation ratios need recalculation based on A-share account scale and institutional share, rather than directly copying Hong Kong parameters.

Fourth, a comparison of lock-up and trading systems across three markets: In A-shares (STAR Market), lock-ups are statutorily mandatory (12 months minimum) plus exchange-agreed tiers; for offline institutions, unprofitable companies may set tiers by agreement, with Unitree Technology at 90% unrestricted/10% locked for 6 months; retail allocation is based on market-cap pricing with extremely low win rates; there is no legal gray market, and over-the-counter nominee holding or pre-sale may violate the Securities Law. In Hong Kong, exchange rules require controlling shareholders to hold for 6 months plus 6 months without losing control; there is no unified offline lock-up ratio; retail and institutional groups each receive 50% with "one hand per person" protection; there is a legal, regulated gray market mechanism. In the US, there are no mandatory lock-ups; underwriters and issuers agree on market-based terms, typically 90-180 days; there is no "offline inquiry allocation" concept; there is no lottery mechanism, with allocation mainly via underwriters or secondary market purchases; there is no "gray market" concept, but pre-IPO secondary markets exist for qualified investors.

All information in this article derives from public commentary by Liberation Daily, publicly issued rule documents from the CSRC and Shanghai Stock Exchange, Unitree Technology's disclosed issuance announcements, and mainstream financial media reports. It serves only as market observation, does not constitute investment advice, and makes no determination on the legality of any related circumstances.