The largest IPO on the STAR Market is on the horizon. Recently, the Shanghai Stock Exchange's official website showed that Yangtze Memory Technologies Co., Ltd.'s (YMTC) IPO application has been accepted. The company plans to raise 33 billion yuan, surpassing CXMT's 29.5 billion yuan, setting a new record for the largest proposed fundraising on the STAR Market. CXMT, which went public a month ago, had an issue price of 8.66 yuan per share, corresponding to an issue market value of approximately 579.2 billion yuan. On its first trading day, the stock closed at 49 yuan per share, giving it a market value of 3.28 trillion yuan and firmly securing its position as the most valuable stock in the A-share market. With both being leaders in domestic memory chips, is YMTC destined to become the second CXMT?

As fellow domestic memory champions, both YMTC and CXMT were founded in 2016, operate under the same IDM (Integrated Device Manufacturer) business model, and have no controlling shareholder or actual controller. However, the two companies show significant differences in key dimensions.

From a technology roadmap perspective, according to their respective prospectuses, CXMT focuses on DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory), which requires periodic refreshing to maintain stored data and loses data immediately when power is off. It primarily serves as the working memory for electronic devices, handling temporary data read/write functions. YMTC, on the other hand, specializes in NAND Flash memory, which retains data without power, supports repeated erasing and writing, and is widely used in high-capacity applications such as solid-state drives (SSDs), embedded storage, and mobile storage.

Tian Lihui, a finance professor at Nankai University, told China News Service that the two companies have a dual divergence in their industry track and capital narrative, with the most fundamental difference lying in their technology pathways and industry ecosystem positions. The market size difference between the two sectors is also stark. According to a May 2026 forecast by TrendForce, a globally renowned semiconductor and storage industry research firm, the global DRAM market output value is expected to be approximately $618.7 billion in 2026, while NAND Flash is projected at $270.6 billion—making the former 2.3 times larger. By 2027, DRAM is expected to grow to $903.3 billion, while NAND Flash is projected at $379.4 billion, with the gap continuing to widen.

In terms of the competitive landscape, based on Omdia data cited in CXMT's prospectus and measured by sales revenue, in 2025 Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology held global DRAM market shares of 33.96%, 34.48%, and 23.41% respectively, commanding a combined share of over 90%. CXMT ranked fourth with a 7.67% market share. The prospectus states that CXMT is China's largest, most technologically advanced, and most comprehensive DRAM R&D, design, and manufacturing integrated company. YMTC's global competitors include the five leaders: Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Kioxia, Micron Technology, and SanDisk. According to Counterpoint Research's latest Q2 2026 Memory & Storage Market Tracker, Samsung led with a 25% shipment share, followed by SK Hynix at 22%. YMTC jumped to third place with a 14% market share, slightly surpassing Kioxia, while Micron Technology ranked fifth.

However, Counterpoint Research also pointed out that shipment volume does not directly translate into revenue. Despite ranking third in shipments this quarter, YMTC ranked fifth in revenue, trailing Micron Technology and Kioxia, due to its product portfolio being concentrated in consumer-grade applications, with a relatively low proportion of high-priced, enterprise-grade SSDs for data centers. Tian Lihui noted that the DRAM market, which CXMT focuses on, is highly monopolized globally by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology. As the world's fourth-largest supplier and China's only DRAM IDM company, CXMT commands a scarcity premium for breaking the monopoly. In contrast, YMTC's NAND Flash business, which focuses on long-term data storage, has relatively lower technical barriers, a lower profit margin ceiling, and a more fragmented global competitive landscape.

On July 27, CXMT's first trading day saw its market value surge from 579.2 billion yuan to 3.28 trillion yuan, a gain of over fivefold. Can this myth be repeated for YMTC? According to its prospectus, YMTC's share issuance accounts for 10% to 12% of total post-issuance shares. Based on its current fundraising amount, this implies a company valuation of approximately 275 billion to 330 billion yuan. In Tian Lihui's view, the probability of YMTC replicating CXMT's first-day surge is extremely low, and the IPO may face structural headwinds. He pointed out that CXMT went public at a time when the AI memory narrative was at its peak and overseas capital was aggressively buying, whereas the current storage sector has pulled back nearly 30% from its highs, with a significant decline in market risk appetite.

From a performance perspective, YMTC posted impressive Q1 2026 results with revenue of 47.042 billion yuan and net profit attributable to parent of 33.379 billion yuan, with single-quarter profit exceeding CXMT's 24.762 billion yuan. The prospectus shows that in Q1, the average selling price of YMTC's NAND Flash products rose 172.72% compared to the full year 2025, and the gross margin for NAND Flash products increased from 36.66% in 2025 to 78.73%. According to a TrendForce report released on July 30, memory demand in 2027 remains driven by AI applications. DRAM is expected to maintain a tight supply situation and strong price trends due to HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) continuously crowding out capacity and strong AI server demand, which sustains procurement momentum for CPU memory and HBM. In contrast, NAND Flash is expected to see supply ease in the second half of 2027 as new capacity is released in a concentrated manner and end-consumer demand continues to weaken, potentially leading to price correction pressure.

From a fundamentals perspective, Tian Lihui believes that while YMTC's Q1 profitability is comparable to or even slightly better than CXMT's, its scarcity and strategic value in the AI supply chain are less than DRAM and HBM. The key battleground lies in whether the inquiry phase can arrive at a reasonable pricing. If the issuance valuation is too aggressive, there is a risk of breaking the issue price at some point after listing; if pricing leaves a safety margin, it may instead gain recognition from rational capital during the market's cooling-off period. Li Guoping, a professor at Central University of Finance and Economics, told China News Service that sentiment's impact on company value is short-term; in the long run, fundamentals are the decisive factor. Whether YMTC's market value can surpass CXMT ultimately depends on its subsequent performance and whether it can achieve a breakthrough in the HBM field. In Li's view, there is no major difference between the domestic market positions of YMTC and CXMT; although their products differ, their long-term investment value is comparable. While the storage sector has pulled back, market sentiment remains elevated, so the risk of YMTC's IPO being cold-shouldered should not be significant.