Abstract

McDonald’s will release its second-quarter 2026 results Pre-Market on August 4, 2026; consensus points to revenue of 7.13 billion US dollars and adjusted EPS of 3.32, implying year-over-year growth of 6.34% for revenue and 5.57% for EPS, with EBIT estimated at 3.39 billion US dollars, up 5.67% year over year.

Market Forecast

The market expects McDonald’s to post second-quarter revenue of 7.13 billion US dollars, up 6.34% year over year, and adjusted EPS of 3.32, up 5.57% year over year, with EBIT projected at 3.39 billion US dollars, up 5.67% year over year. Forecasts do not include explicit gross margin or net margin figures for the quarter. Franchised restaurants remain the core earnings engine, supported by the brand’s value architecture and traffic-led promotions; last quarter, franchised restaurants generated 4.01 billion US dollars, underpinning operating efficiency and margin resilience. The most promising near-term driver is the beverages-and-value activation layered onto the company-operated base of 2.32 billion US dollars last quarter, with comparisons set to be tight in the United States in Q2 while total revenue is forecast to rise 6.34% year over year.

Last Quarter Review

In the first quarter of 2026, McDonald’s reported revenue of 6.52 billion US dollars (up 9.42% year over year), a gross profit margin of 55.90%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.98 billion US dollars, a net profit margin of 30.43%, and adjusted EPS of 2.83 (up 5.99% year over year). A notable highlight was the simultaneous beat on revenue and adjusted EPS versus estimates, reflecting effective price-pack architecture and promotional cadence that lifted comps and operating profit above expectations. By business mix, franchised restaurants delivered 4.01 billion US dollars, company-operated restaurant sales were 2.32 billion US dollars, and other revenue was 193.00 million US dollars, while total revenue grew 9.42% year over year.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core earnings engine: franchised restaurants and the value platform

The primary earnings engine remains the franchised estate, which benefits from capital-light economics, higher flow-through, and stability when promotional activity is well calibrated to demand. The operating setup last quarter produced a 55.90% gross margin and a 30.43% net profit margin at the corporate level, underscoring how a high mix of franchised royalties and rent can cushion company-level margins through changing traffic patterns. Into this quarter, a sustained emphasis on value deals and check-building add-ons (notably beverages and breakfast bundles) is designed to balance traffic recovery with unit economics, especially as U.S. consumers remain price-sensitive and as comparisons to last year’s elevated promotional peaks tighten. From a cadence perspective, the brand’s recurring value offers, refreshed marketing moments, and menu innovations are intended to smooth weekly traffic and reduce reliance on deep discounting. This approach has been complemented by targeted promotions that generated large one-day spikes last season, and the company is likely to lean on repeatable, digitally-activated offers to maintain engagement at a lower average discount than traditional blanket price cuts. This quarter’s reported comps will likely reflect modest year-over-year growth in mature markets alongside steadier gains where activation is synchronized with localized value scores, with the franchised model translating incremental comp improvement into outsized EBIT contribution due to operating leverage at the franchised corporate level.

Promising growth vector: beverages and the chicken platform

Beverages have emerged as a practical, margin-accretive lever with the introduction of refreshers, crafted sodas, and the planned addition of energy drinks. These offerings allow the brand to augment traffic and check without diluting perceived affordability and tend to generate strong social engagement, particularly among younger consumers who view cold beverages as a treat occasion. Because beverages drive both mix and attachment, this lever is aligned with the goal of building incremental visits while protecting overall price-value perception. Menu momentum around chicken provides a second growth vector. Management has reintroduced and expanded items like Snack Wraps and McCrispy variants, alongside a continued push on chicken sandwiches. Chicken remains a customer acquisition category and, combined with bundled value meals, provides a pathway to sustain frequency without relying on aggressive discounting across the broader menu. The combined beverages-and-chicken strategy is structured to be modular and repeatable, which should aid quarter-to-quarter consistency; in the near term, analysts expect tighter comps in Q2 in the United States, but several anticipate reacceleration into the back half as new beverages scale and marketing cycles intensify. With company-operated restaurant sales of 2.32 billion US dollars last quarter as a baseline, these mix-accretive categories should help stabilize traffic while adding to average check; meanwhile, the franchised portfolio captures a share of every incremental transaction across the system, translating product-level wins into corporate-level EBIT support. This is why, even as near-term same-store sales might print low single digits in certain geographies, consensus still expects total revenue growth of 6.34% year over year and EPS growth of 5.57% year over year for the quarter at hand.

What will drive the stock through the print

Same-store sales versus expectations will likely be the first and most visible swing factor. Several institutions see Q2 U.S. comps as low single digits with particularly tight comparisons; one high-profile desk flags approximately 0.5% for U.S. same-store sales, slightly below the broader consensus, while pointing to a potential pickup in the second half as beverage innovation and marketing layers mature. The magnitude of any upside or downside surprise on comps, and how it splits between check and traffic, will inform investors’ read-through on price elasticity and the traction of value bundles. Margin color will be the second key driver. Investors will parse comments on cost of goods sold (notably proteins and beverages), labor trends, and the mix impact of beverages and digital orders. With a strong franchised mix, modest changes in system sales should still deliver respectable corporate-level EBIT flow-through; however, explicit commentary on gross margin direction and any net price actions by region will shape the near-term earnings power narrative. Clarity on how value platforms are funded—brand-funded, franchisee-funded, or mix-funded—also matters for forecasting franchisee health and the sustainability of promotions. Guidance and qualitative outlook are the third pillar. Any cues on the shape of second-half demand, the expected contribution of menu innovation, and the rollout pace for beverages will set the tone for back-half estimates. Management’s update on digital engagement, loyalty participation, and the ROI of promotional cycles will help investors gauge whether traffic growth can be maintained without deeper discounting. Finally, capital return cadence—dividends and repurchases—may provide additional support to per-share metrics, but the core of the stock reaction will rest on comps, margin durability, and evidence that the beverages-and-value flywheel is beginning to scale.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish vs. bearish ratio: approximately 90% vs. 10% across recent research notes and previews, with the clear majority leaning positive on the setup despite caution on near-term same-store sales. The majority view emphasizes that the combination of value architecture, digital activation, beverages, and renewed menu energy can support steady revenue and earnings growth while protecting margins. BTIG’s Peter Saleh maintains a Buy stance, citing conviction that value initiatives are resonating and that the current promotional architecture is improving traffic quality without undermining brand pricing power. Barclays’ Jeff Bernstein reiterates a Buy view, pointing to a favorable risk-reward as the company leans into repeatable marketing programs that can translate into consistent same-store sales and high incremental margins through the franchised model. Jefferies’ Andy Barish remains constructive with a Buy rating, underscoring the beverages-led mix opportunity and the scalability of chicken innovations as catalysts for the second half; his framework suggests that early-stage beverage sales should expand throughput with minimal operational friction. KeyBanc’s Eric Gonzalez keeps a Buy stance, acknowledging tighter near-term comps yet highlighting a credible path to mid-single-digit revenue growth for the quarter and continued market-share gains through 2027 as the menu pipeline and digital capabilities compound. A widely followed buy-side desk at UBS continues to see attractive risk-reward and maintains a Buy rating even as it models softer Q2 same-store sales in the United States and International Operated Markets; the call argues that trends should improve in the second half as the new beverages scale and marketing cycles intensify. Wells Fargo, Gordon Haskett, and Bank of America each keep constructive Overweight/Buy stances, emphasizing the durability of the model’s cash generation and the ability to reinvest in value while maintaining healthy per-share economics. Tigress Financial lifts its price target with a continued Buy view, framing the new product cadence and digital engagement as consistent with sustained cash flow growth and ongoing capital returns. This majority perspective coalesces around several core points. First, the value proposition has been materially refreshed and is clearly resonating in measured ways—recent results showed both revenue and EPS ahead of expectations, with global comparable sales previously expanding in the low-to-mid single digits and the U.S. holding up around similar levels. Second, beverages provide a measurable mix tailwind that can drive frequency at an attractive unit margin; this is the precise sort of lever that can enhance both traffic and profitability without undermining the broader price-value balance. Third, the franchised-heavy economic model translates modest sales growth into disproportionate EBIT support at the corporate level, which helps anchor the case for mid-single-digit EPS growth even through choppy comps. The bullish camp also expects Q2 to be a bridge to a steadier second half. The consensus thesis is not that Q2 will be a blockbuster, but that it should be sufficient to confirm the trajectory: revenue growth around 6.34% year over year, EPS growth around 5.57% year over year, and constructive commentary around beverages and value carry-through. If management’s qualitative outlook points to accelerating adoption of the beverages lineup and repeatable promotional cycles, several bulls believe estimates can hold or drift modestly higher for the back half, particularly if traffic and check mix normalize in tandem. On balance, the prevailing view is that this quarter’s outcome will be defined less by one-time promotions and more by the scaling of a systematized playbook. That playbook links value, beverages, and menu newsflow to digital activation, yielding incremental transactions with favorable attachment and a clearer path to margin stability. The brand’s prior quarter performance—beating on revenue and EPS while sustaining a 55.90% gross margin and a 30.43% net margin—gives the bullish side confidence that the model can absorb near-term volatility in comps while still producing the mid-single-digit growth embedded in forecasts. As a result, most institutions remain positively positioned ahead of August 4, 2026, expecting Q2 print-and-guide to validate steady execution and set the stage for a firmer second half.