Shares of BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) are experiencing a significant surge on Friday, climbing 2.2% to $58.09 each.

The 2026 financial year proved to be a landmark period for the prominent Australian company.

During FY26, the BHP share price jumped 62%, closing at $59.40 on June 30.

BHP stood out as one of the top performers for capital appreciation among the large-cap constituents of the ASX 200 last year.

The company's performance was bolstered by a market shift into mining stocks, coupled with an 18% surge in copper prices and a 7% rise in iron ore prices.

Although BHP continues to be a leading iron ore producer, it has also ascended to become the world's foremost copper producer.

Copper, a critical metal for electrification, reached a record high of US$6.60 per pound in May, driven by robust demand from the green energy transition.

In the first half of FY26, copper accounted for over half of BHP's underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation.

In its third-quarter update for FY26, BHP indicated that strong output at its Escondida operation in Chile and Antamina in Peru led to an expectation that full-year group production would reach the top end of its forecast range.

The year brought varied developments for other segments of the business.

In February, BHP entered into a long-term silver streaming agreement with Wheaton Precious Metals Corp (NYSE: WPM).

The miner received an upfront payment of US$4.3 billion, bolstering its financial position, in exchange for a portion of the silver produced at Antamina.

However, challenges emerged at the Jansen potash project in Canada, with BHP disclosing in June an estimated US$2 billion cost overrun for Stage 2.

The company now anticipates Stage 2 costs to reach US$6.9 billion, revised upward from a prior estimate of US$4.9 billion.

Jansen Stage 1 remains scheduled for initial production in FY27.

In March, it was announced that CEO Mike Henry would depart on July 1 after leading the company for six and a half years.

He was succeeded by Brandon Craig, a 25-year BHP veteran who previously served as President of the Americas division.

In May, BHP reclaimed its position as the ASX 200's largest company by market capitalisation from Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA).

Analyst Perspectives on BHP Stock

As the market looks toward FY27, broker opinions on BHP shares are divided, with recommendations ranging from buy to hold to sell.

Analysts also present a wide spectrum of price targets for the ASX 200 mining giant over the next 12 months.

Beginning with aggregated views, we will then examine individual analyst reasoning behind their specific ratings.

On the TradingView platform, a consensus of 20 analysts yields a neutral rating, which equates to a hold recommendation.

Among them, four analysts assign a strong buy rating, 13 recommend hold, two suggest sell, and one issues a strong sell rating.

The 12-month share price targets from these analysts span from $43.94 to $94.10.

On the CommSec trading platform, a consensus of 19 analysts also results in a hold rating.

Four analysts give the miner a strong buy rating, 14 advise hold, and there is one strong sell recommendation.

Bullish Stances and Their Rationale

Morgan Stanley reaffirmed its buy rating on BHP shares yesterday, setting a 12-month price target of $67.50.

Deutsche Bank also maintains a buy recommendation, having increased its target from $50.25 to $52.19 earlier this month.

Blake Halligan from Catapult Wealth similarly holds a buy rating on BHP shares, providing the following explanation:

The global miner holds dominant positions in iron ore and copper and is leveraged to increasing demand during the energy transition.

Despite the Jansen impairment and the risk of industrial action at iron ore operations in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, near term earnings momentum remains strong.

The balance sheet remains robust with low net debt, while a recent dividend yield above 3 per cent adds income appeal.

Analysts Recommending a Hold Position

The hold rating is the prevailing view among experts currently.

Morgans reiterated its hold call on BHP shares yesterday, raising its 12-month target from $54.90 to $59.80.

Bank of America, known for its historically optimistic targets on BHP, reiterated its hold rating on Wednesday and lowered its target from $70 to $65.

Other analysts who reiterated hold calls but reduced their targets this week include Citi, moving from $66 to $63, and Jefferies, adjusting from $68 to $65.

Meanwhile, Macquarie maintained its target at $55, and UBS kept its target at $60 per share.

The most bearish target identified was $40.10, proposed by Barclays this week, suggesting a potential 30% decline in FY27.

On The Bull, Remo Greco from Sanlam Private Wealth detailed his reasoning for a hold rating on BHP shares:

Several disappointing events have led us to downgrade BHP to a hold.

Cost over-runs at its Jansen stage 2 potash project in Canada lifts the investment cost by about $US2 billion to $US6.9 billion. Possible industrial action, although averted in June, may re-ignite at the company's iron ore operations in the Pilbara region of Western Australia.

Any industrial action may impact stock performance.

Longer term, we like BHP's exposure to copper – the key metal of the future.

James Bills from Shaw and Partners also maintains a hold rating, commenting:

BHP remains a cornerstone of the Australian sharemarket, underpinned by its scale, diversified commodity exposure and strong balance sheet.

While iron ore continues to drive earnings, BHP is increasingly leveraged to future-facing commodities, including copper, where demand is expected to increase significantly due to growth in data centres and electric vehicles.

Despite near term volatility in commodity prices and sensitivity to global growth, the company's disciplined capital management and strong cash generation support shareholder returns.

Holding remains appropriate given its quality asset base and exposure to long term structural demand trends.

Michael Gable from Fairmont Equities advises holding BHP shares because "the commodities bull market is still in the early stages of the latest cycle".

Experts cite five fundamental factors propelling this new commodities supercycle.