From the perspective of online signing transaction data, the National Day holiday saw new home and second-hand home online signing volumes in key cities generally outperform the same period last year, according to an article published by the China Index Academy.
Based on China Index Academy data, from October 1 to 7, new residential transactions across 25 key cities totaled 551,000 square meters, representing a year-on-year average daily increase of 33.8% compared with last year's National Day holiday and roughly flat versus the 2024 National Day holiday. In the second-hand home segment, the average daily transaction volume across 11 key cities rose 42.8% year-on-year, though still falling somewhat short of the same period in 2024. It should be noted that online signing volumes during the National Day holiday are inherently at a relatively low point in the annual cycle and are significantly influenced by holiday filing rhythms and base-period effects, making year-on-year growth rates prone to noticeable fluctuations.
In terms of city-level performance, new home online signings in Beijing and Hangzhou posted relatively large year-on-year increases, while Shanghai and Wuhan also recorded growth. Shenzhen and Chengdu, by contrast, saw declines. At the project level, improvement-oriented projects in core districts, developments with prominent location and product advantages, and projects offering substantial discounts attracted more attention, while some projects in middle and outer suburbs continued to rely mainly on price incentives to drive sales, perpetuating the uneven market performance.
On the policy front, the State Council executive meeting on September 28 proposed "researching and introducing policy measures to stabilize the real estate market and promote employment and income growth." The mortgage interest subsidy policy for homebuyers was implemented before the holiday, providing some support to eligible purchasers. The National Day holiday is an important window for real estate developers to concentrate their marketing efforts and for residents to visit and select homes.
During this year's National Day period, most key city projects maintained normal operations, with developers attracting customers through special-price units, home purchase subsidies, and parking space discounts, while some cities organized home buying festivals and housing expos concurrently. Projects launched before the holiday replenished available inventory for the holiday market, with some developments rolling out purchase incentives tied to the September 29 mortgage interest subsidy and other policies. Based on market feedback, visits to certain projects increased, but performance still varied across different cities and developments. Whether the customer traffic generated by marketing activities can be converted into actual transactions remains to be further observed.
Looking ahead, the "Silver October" transaction performance will be an important window for observing the fourth-quarter market. In the short term, some projects in core cities still have certain demand support, but the overall market remains in a stage of divergent adjustment. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the actual impact of the mortgage interest subsidy policy, the introduction of incremental policies in various localities, and the progress of implementing the detailed rules for the August 28 commercial housing sales system reform.
Beijing: On the new home side, September saw a surge in new home supply in Beijing, with multiple hotspot projects launching to strong sales from mid-to-late September onward. During the National Day holiday, driven by the combination of favorable policies and developer promotions, market heat continued, with visit volumes at multiple projects rebounding notably and some hotspot project showrooms even seeing queues. Developers generally rolled out themed events and National Day-exclusive offers, such as holiday-specific discounts, complimentary property management fees, and parking space discounts, to attract prospective buyers. From online signing data, Beijing's average daily new commercial residential online signings during the National Day holiday reached 144 units and 15,700 square meters, up 176% and 157% respectively compared with the same period last year. Market divergence remained pronounced, with "good homes" improvement projects featuring high efficiency ratios, near-completed units, and subway proximity selling well, while weak-amenity projects in outer suburbs continued to trade price for volume. In the second-hand home segment, holiday showings picked up somewhat, with inquiries for newer second-hand listings in central urban areas increasing, but online signing transactions were relatively subdued, averaging 18.3 units per day during the National Day holiday, essentially flat versus the same period last year. On pricing, seller asking prices stabilized and room for negotiation narrowed, though widespread price increases have yet to emerge, keeping the market buyer-favorable. Premium newer properties with mature amenities maintained firm asking prices, while older properties with weak amenities still offered considerable negotiation room.
Shanghai: Under the continued influence of policies such as the "Shanghai Eight Measures," the replacement chain in Shanghai's property market has accelerated somewhat, with the "Golden September and Silver October" trend steadily unfolding. In September, new commercial residential transactions citywide reached 1.179 million square meters, up 22.1% year-on-year. Second-hand market activity persisted, with September second-hand commercial housing online signings at 24,000 units, up 17.2% year-on-year, a new high for the same period in nearly six years. This recovery extended into the National Day holiday, with both new and second-hand home transactions growing year-on-year. Overall, Shanghai's property market is in a stage of moderate recovery, with replacement demand still having room for release.
Shenzhen: Before the National Day holiday, Shenzhen intensively rolled out policies and home purchase promotion activities. The city's "Golden September and Silver October Good Homes Carnival" showcased nearly 80 projects, with districts including Nanshan, Futian, and Guangming separately introducing consumption voucher subsidies, "sell old buy new" subsidies, and "Good Homes Carnival" initiatives. Developers also seized the opportunity to accelerate launches, with approximately 1,229 residential units concentrated on the market around late September, generally adopting tiered discounts and limited-time 15% off promotions. Driven by these factors, the holiday market showed moderate recovery, with new home project visits and signings rising compared with before the holiday. Multiple projects in Guangming and Bao'an saw visit volumes increase by about 30% versus ordinary days, with the proportion of out-of-town buyers viewing properties rising. However, overall market divergence persisted, with improvement-oriented properties in core districts selling well, while peripheral rigid-demand projects relied on discounts to drive volume.
Guangzhou: During the National Day holiday, Guangzhou's launches were mainly routine sales, with multiple projects rolling out limited-time discounts, branded appliance gifts with transactions, and fixed-price units. Some projects also offered "mortgage payments starting after completion filing" to alleviate buyer concerns about delivery timelines. Transaction performance diverged markedly: improvement projects in core districts saw significant increases in visits and transactions backed by location and amenity advantages; some suburban rigid-demand projects, due to lower total prices that fit within the mortgage interest subsidy policy threshold, attracted a batch of first-time buyers; most projects saw relatively stable absorption. Hangzhou: During the holiday, market activity picked up somewhat. On the demand side, rigid-demand buyers entered first, with visits to projects priced under 1.5 million yuan increasing notably, some projects seeing daily visits exceed 100 groups, small-unit down payments accounting for a relatively high share, and some outer-suburb owners proactively adjusting prices to match the interest subsidy policy. Improvement demand was also released simultaneously, with projects in Xihu District and Xiaoshan Shibei and other areas seeing large open-day visit volumes, and leading developers recording daily holiday sales exceeding 100 million yuan. On the supply side, developers generally intensified marketing efforts, with special discounts, visit gifts, and referral rewards densely rolled out. The holiday market remained mainly routine sales, with few lottery projects. Overall, the "Silver October" got off to a good start, but heat was highly concentrated in rigid-demand projects and core improvement projects, while middle and outer suburbs and mid-price segments remained under pressure, perpetuating the divergent market pattern.
Chengdu: During the holiday, Chengdu's property market activity improved, with the second-hand home segment performing more notably. On the policy side, the four-department new policy on August 25 lowered the minimum down payment ratio for provident fund loans on new commercial housing to 15% and provided a one-year 20% interest subsidy (up to 25,000 yuan per household). From late September, 16 districts and counties citywide coordinated to hold more than 30 Mid-Autumn and National Day property promotion events, continuing until October 18, gathering momentum for the holiday market. During the holiday, second-hand home showings increased, with properties priced under 2 million yuan and relatively new construction more favored. Second-hand home transactions accounted for over 80% of the city's residential market and remained the mainstay of transactions, while new home supply continued to increase and transactions remained in year-on-year decline. Overall, Chengdu's holiday market heat rebounded somewhat, but new homes are still in a recovery channel, and market stabilization still requires further policy effects to take hold.
Wuhan: During the holiday, Wuhan recorded 783 commercial residential transactions with a transaction area of 94,700 square meters, with average daily transactions up 25% versus the same period last year, reflecting improved market activity. Reasons include: first, Wuhan saw concentrated new home pre-sales certificates issued in late September, with multiple projects launching or adding units during the holiday, providing relatively ample market supply; second, on October 1, Wuhan issued the "Implementation Opinions on Implementing the Notice on Improving the Commercial Housing Sales System," with the detailed rules of the August 28 new policy landing on the first day of the holiday. The document clarified measures including pre-sales upon topping out, advancing presale-to-completed-sale transition, and allowing guarantee letters to replace regulatory funds, which, combined with the national mortgage interest subsidy policy taking effect the same day, helped stabilize market expectations. Additionally, the 2026 Wuhan Autumn Home Buying Carnival themed "Livable Wuhan, Quality Living" opened on September 30 at Xibei Lake Park in Hankou, with a "1+15+N" exhibition system gathering 75 premium projects and 20,000 housing units, running until October 7 and gathering momentum for the holiday market.
Tianjin: During the holiday, Tianjin developers densely rolled out marketing activities including visit gifts and National Day special offers, with core projects seeing relatively high visit heat. In the latter half of the holiday, market activity declined somewhat due to residents traveling, but overall performance was still better than the same period last year. It should be noted that this round of holiday heat was mainly driven by marketing activities, and the sustainability of subsequent market recovery still depends on the pace of implementing Tianjin's policy details and the recovery of developer investment confidence.
Suzhou: In September, Suzhou's new home launch pace accelerated markedly, reserving relatively ample inventory for the National Day holiday. During the holiday, visits to popular projects remained at high levels, with improvement demand becoming an important support for this round of market recovery, and the second-hand home market also maintained some resilience. In terms of market activities, Suzhou launched an "Autumn Home Buying Season" event, with viewing traffic picking up somewhat and project promotions intensifying in tandem, but the boost to transactions is currently more reflected in property viewings and visits, and sustained improvement in transaction volume still needs to be observed. Overall, Suzhou's property market remains in a bottoming-out and recovery process, with the current uptick representing structural heat rather than a trend reversal, and full market stabilization still requires continued policy effects and further demand-side recovery.
Zhengzhou: September entered a buffer period for implementing the August 28 new policy, with homebuyer wait-and-see sentiment somewhat intensifying and the pace of new project launches slowing. One fourth-generation housing project launched in a core location, achieving an absorption rate exceeding 70% at opening, while many projects under old rules continued "price cuts and higher commissions" promotions. At month-end, the mortgage interest subsidy policy landed, with the subsidy scope highly aligned with the Zhengzhou market, forming a direct benefit for rigid-demand buyers. Combined with earlier policy support including mortgage extensions and increased provident fund limits, during the National Day holiday, customer viewing heat at many Zhengzhou projects increased somewhat, and some buyers shortened their purchase decision cycles, though overall wait-and-see sentiment persisted.