On October 6 local time, during the Greenwich Economic Forum, Nassim Taleb, author of "The Black Swan" and a scientist at hedge fund Universa Investments, stated that AI will play an increasingly significant role in daily life, but this does not mean that currently popular companies will be the ultimate winners. Taleb pointed out that directly inferring from "AI will change the world" to "one should invest in AI-related companies" is an overly simplistic line of thinking.

Reviewing the development of personal computers and the internet, the companies that first drove technological change did not necessarily become the ultimate beneficiaries, and first-mover advantage does not guarantee long-term success. He noted that technology companies will face threats from other technology companies, and future innovations could alter AI efficiency and the competitive landscape. Therefore, caution is needed regarding the valuations of certain companies, as they may not be the final winners. Taleb did not name specific companies.

Also during the Greenwich Economic Forum, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, had stated that US Treasuries are facing risks of declining international demand from China and Japan. Taleb is more concerned about weakening domestic demand in the United States, particularly the departure of US pension funds or long-term funds.

Taleb also believes that debt accumulation is exacerbating the fragility of Western economies. Governments need to continuously borrow to pay debt interest, and if growth is insufficient to ease the burden, a debt spiral could form. He warned that relying on inflation to reduce the real value of debt could also keep interest rates elevated, and noted that as demand for US Treasuries declines, it could undermine the upward momentum of US stocks.

Regarding the view that AI could solve the debt problem, he said that AI may create miracles, but it could also bring highly unexpected outcomes, and one should not rely on AI. On the social impact of AI, he is more focused on the employment pressure on the middle class and the further concentration of technology and wealth in a few companies.

On risk management, Taleb advocates maintaining long-term discipline, always keeping tail risk hedges even when there is no apparent reason to hedge. He stated that by the time risks become obvious and everyone seeks protection, the cost of hedging is often already too high.