Since the start of July, the growth-oriented investment track has experienced a notable correction, driven by concerns over the monetization of AI infrastructure capital expenditure and rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. The semiconductor sector has undergone significant volatility in tandem with this broader market trend. However, an examination of several key industry data points suggests that the sector's cyclical recovery may still be well-supported.

According to data from South Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, the country's total exports surged 63% year-on-year in July to reach USD 98.9 billion, marking the second-highest monthly export figure on record. Within this total, semiconductor exports served as the core driver of the nation's trade surplus for the month. Semiconductor exports skyrocketed 179% year-on-year to USD 41 billion, breaking the USD 40 billion mark for two consecutive months and setting a new monthly record. As South Korea serves as a key bellwether for the global semiconductor supply chain, its export data may reflect the robust state of current industry demand.

Wind data indicates that amidst the overall market pressure in July, there was a clear trend of capital flowing into the semiconductor sector against the market tide. The popular Huatai-PineBridge STAR Semiconductor Equipment ETF (588710) received capital inflows on 20 out of 23 trading days in July, accumulating a total of 7.677 billion yuan. Trading activity also increased, with average daily turnover reaching 2.075 billion yuan for the month, significantly higher than the year-to-date average of 615 million yuan. Driven by this sustained capital influx, the ETF's latest share count has risen to a record high since its inception, standing at 3.556 billion units. Its total net asset value has surpassed the 10 billion yuan mark to reach 10.116 billion yuan, with year-to-date growth rates of 524% and 1041%, respectively.

From the perspective of the earnings performance of domestic semiconductor listed companies, the sector's cyclical recovery appears to be materializing. As of July 31, 55 A-share semiconductor companies had released their first-half performance forecasts. Among them, 46 companies reported pre-increases, slight increases, or a return to profitability, accounting for 84% of the total that disclosed forecasts. From memory chips and packaging & testing to semiconductor equipment, signs of improving profitability are emerging across multiple segments of the industry chain. This suggests that the industry's development focus may be gradually shifting from a policy-driven phase to a phase of sustained earnings delivery and validation.

Looking at the overseas memory market, the financial reports of leading companies also show strong operational performance. The recent earnings reports released by SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics were generally positive, continuing the pattern of high prosperity along the supply chain. This week, the performance of memory giants remains a key market focus. In the early hours of August 6, Beijing time, both SanDisk and Western Digital are scheduled to release their financial results. In a previous research report, Goldman Sachs indicated that SanDisk is expected to deliver strong results for the fourth fiscal quarter of fiscal year 2026. The core factors supporting this judgment include a persistently tight supply-demand balance for NAND flash memory, continuous optimization of the product mix, and the company's previously issued operational guidance. The subsequent release of financial reports from related companies is expected to continue providing event-driven catalysts for the sector.

Hua An Securities pointed out that the market has recently shown signs of being oversold, and pessimistic sentiment has reached extreme levels. Following the recent deep correction, there may be opportunities for oversold bounces and valuation recovery in the upstream and midstream segments of the AI industry chain. The firm recommends focusing on two investment themes. The first core theme is the AI industry chain, with a particular focus on upstream and midstream segments such as computing hardware. The second theme involves areas that benefit from the diffusion and catalytic effects of the AI chain, mainly including machinery and equipment, robotics, gaming, and software.

The Huatai-PineBridge STAR Semiconductor Equipment ETF (588710) and its linked funds (Class A: 024974 / Class C: 024975) are positioned to benefit from the dual catalysts of the AI hardware wave and domestic substitution. The underlying index, the STAR Semiconductor Materials & Equipment Theme Index, allocates 89% of its weight to the "semiconductor equipment + semiconductor materials" industry. Furthermore, unlike other semiconductor-themed indices that select stocks from both the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, the STAR Semiconductor Materials & Equipment Index selects stocks entirely from the STAR Market (the Science and Technology Innovation Board), which may endow the index with greater elasticity. Over the past year, the STAR Semiconductor Materials & Equipment Index has accumulated a gain of 155%, outperforming the 142% return of the CSI Semiconductor Materials & Equipment Theme Index during the same period.

Semiconductor equipment and materials represent a high-beta sector. Investors need to be aware of the risks associated with high valuations and trading volatility. It is advisable to make rational judgments and invest cautiously based on one's own risk tolerance. One possible approach is to consider a portfolio construction strategy, pairing investments with the Huatai-PineBridge "Dividend Family Bucket" to create a "barbell" allocation. On the offensive side, investing in high-growth technology tracks can help capture industry dividends, while on the defensive side, dividend-type assets can help smooth portfolio fluctuations. As one of the first ETF managers in China, Huatai-PineBridge Fund has been deeply involved in index investing for over 19 years. It has provided investors with index tool products like the CSI 300 ETF (510300) and the CSI A500 ETF (563360), which offer transparency, convenient trading, and low fees. As of the end of June 2026, the company's ETFs had generated a cumulative profit of over 180.6 billion yuan for its holders over the past two years, making it one of only three public fund companies in the entire A-share market to have achieved cumulative profits exceeding 160 billion yuan during that period.