This year's corn market has seen a series of policy-driven grain releases. Imported corn auctions commenced in July 2025, continuing into the 2025/26 marketing year before pausing in April 2026 and restarting in June 2026. Although the volume per auction is relatively modest at around 200,000 tonnes, it adds further pressure to an already loosening supply side. In January 2026, minimum purchase price wheat auctions began, concluding in late April, followed by the release of over-storage rice (brown rice) in late May 2026. This article provides a summary analysis of recent policy-related grain releases affecting the corn market.

Approximate Estimates of Policy Grain Inventories

The national policy grain inventory, beyond regular rotation stockpiles, includes over-storage rice, minimum purchase price wheat, regulatory reserve corn, and imported reserve corn. As of the end of 2025, incomplete market data suggests pre-2021 rice inventories were approximately 17-20 million tonnes. Regarding minimum purchase price wheat, market-circulated data indicates total inventories from the 2017-2020 production years amount to about 29 million tonnes, comprising roughly 7.84 million tonnes from 2017, 15.11 million tonnes from 2019, and 5.97 million tonnes from 2020. Regulatory reserve corn inventories are estimated based on past annual rumors to be over 30 million tonnes. News of policy reserve increases began circulating from 2022 onwards; estimates suggest an increase of around 7 million tonnes for the 2022/23 marketing year, approximately 10 million tonnes for 2023/24, and a projected 20 million tonnes for 2024/25. Following a typical three-year rotation cycle, the grain from the 2022/23 increase would reach its rotation-out period by 2026. In December 2025, market rumors suggested a planned release of 2.4 million tonnes of regulatory reserve grain from Northeast China to ease tight downstream raw material supplies, though this has not yet materialized. For imported reserve corn, about 2 million tonnes were sold in 2023/24, over 5 million tonnes in 2024/25, and approximately 5 million tonnes by the end of April in the 2025/26 marketing year, leaving an estimated remaining imported reserve corn inventory of over 20 million tonnes. Overall, policy grain inventories remain substantial. However, these figures are all estimates; as procurement and sales data are not publicly disclosed, the figures presented here may differ significantly from actual numbers.

Release and Sales of Imported Corn

Imported corn in China's reserves primarily entered storage between 2020 and 2024. The signing of the Phase One trade agreement with the U.S. in January 2020 marked the beginning of increased corn imports. Prior to 2020, annual corn imports stayed within the tariff-rate quota (7.2 million tonnes), with relatively low quota utilization. From 2020 onwards, corn import volumes first exceeded the quota, reaching the ten-million-tonne level, peaking at 28.35 million tonnes in 2021. Imports remained above 20 million tonnes in 2022 and 2023 before declining to 13.76 million tonnes in 2024 and dropping sharply to 2.65 million tonnes in 2025. During the period of over-quota imports, the vast majority of this grain entered reserve stocks. Combining this with market rumors from those years, the total imported corn entering reserves is estimated at 30-40 million tonnes. Auctions to release this corn into the market began in 2023 and were suspended in mid-December 2024. Releases resumed in July 2025, paused in April 2026, and restarted in June 2026. The release pattern is relatively unclear, not deliberately avoiding the peak new-season corn marketing period, and the suspension timing shows no clear relationship with changes in sales rates, suggesting a year-round release possibility. Since imported corn storage points are mostly in consumption areas, the auction floor price for imported corn has limited reference value for the futures market. Analysis often relies on sporadic sales data from Liaoning province. From July 2025 to April 2026, the starting auction price for imported corn in Liaoning was 2,000 yuan/tonne, with premiums following the prevailing corn price trend, ranging from 100 to 300 yuan/tonne. The first batch of imported corn release lists in June this year also included storage points in Liaoning, with a starting price of 2,120 yuan/tonne. This increase has somewhat alleviated market pessimism, and the sales premiums were also relatively high. The second batch of imported corn was released on June 9, totaling 202,700 tonnes. Starting prices in different areas of Liaoning province varied between 2,100 and 2,150 yuan/tonne. It is estimated the release pace for this round is two auctions per week, which has been the common practice in recent years, more frequent than once per week. Estimated weekly supply is around 400,000 tonnes. By the end of the marketing year (September 30), an estimated 16 weeks of releases could total approximately 6.5 million tonnes. Combined with the 5 million tonnes of imported corn sold from October 2025 to April 2026, total imported corn sales for the 2025/26 marketing year are projected to be around 10-12 million tonnes. The current estimated remaining imported reserve corn inventory is still over 20 million tonnes. Based on the production years of the grain released in this round (2021-2023 imports), the stock is already quite aged, with much of it exceeding the typical three-year storage cycle. Ample inventory coupled with uncertainty over the policy release schedule is a primary market concern, warranting close attention to future changes in the imported corn release pace.

Release and Sales of Minimum Purchase Price Wheat

From 2022 to 2025, auctions for minimum purchase price wheat explicitly restricted participants to flour processing enterprises. Wheat purchased by these enterprises was for their own use only and could not be resold. Therefore, the policy wheat released during this period was unlikely to enter the feed sector as a corn substitute and is not considered within the scope of corn-related policy grains. In January 2026, the minimum purchase price wheat auctions continued this participant restriction. However, starting from the auction announcement on March 18, 2026, the restriction limiting participation to "flour processing enterprises only" was removed. Since then, a pathway for policy wheat sold to enter the feed sector as a corn substitute has reopened. Policy wheat releases in 2026 concluded at the end of April, with total sales of 6.16 million tonnes. Of this, 4.43 million tonnes were sold during the period without participant restrictions, which can be roughly calculated as the volume of policy wheat used for feed substitution in the 2025/26 marketing year (the actual feed substitution volume is lower than 4.43 million tonnes due to participation by flour enterprises).

Wheat has a higher protein content than corn. When substituting for feed corn, it reduces the amount of soybean meal used in feed. However, its lower crude fat content compared to corn will lead to an increased proportion of oil added to feed formulations. Substitution also requires adding additional enzymes to improve digestibility. Whether wheat can substitute for corn depends on their relative prices. A general substitution method is "20% wheat = 16.5% corn + 3.5% soybean meal," meaning 1,000 kg of wheat replaces 825 kg of corn and 175 kg of soybean meal. Therefore, 4.43 million tonnes of wheat roughly substitutes for 3.65 million tonnes of corn. This can serve as an estimate for the volume of policy wheat used for feed substitution this marketing year, i.e., policy wheat in 2025/26 is roughly estimated to substitute for 3.65 million tonnes of corn.

[In actual feed formulation, specific substitution ratios need to be calculated based on different metabolic energy levels. Decisions on whether to add oils, enzymes, and their proportions also depend on the wheat inclusion rate. For example, if the wheat substitution ratio for corn exceeds 15%, it's necessary to add specific wheat enzymes and adjust levels of lysine, threonine, and phosphates. Therefore, considering price and formulation structure, wheat can substitute for a portion of corn and soybean meal, effectively reducing formulation costs.]

Based on the market-circulated inventory data for old wheat as of the end of 2025, total inventories from the 2017-2020 production years were 29 million tonnes. With 6.16 million tonnes sold in 2026, over 20 million tonnes of policy wheat inventory remains.

Release and Sales of Over-Storage Rice

Normal rice prices are significantly higher than corn prices. However, over-storage rice is no longer suitable for human consumption and is sold through policy channels for feed or deep-processing use. Policy rice inventories mainly originate from the minimum purchase price policy for rice. Due to more grain entering storage than leaving, rice that has exceeded its storage period cannot be sold through public auctions and must be sold through定向 channels. According to announcements from the National Grain Trade Center, public rice releases in 2025 still included grain from 2021 and 2022. The earliest grain year in this year's rice releases, which started in late March 2026, was 2022. The floor price for the 2022 minimum purchase price japonica rice released in Heilongjiang this year was 2,555 yuan/tonne (Grade 3, with a 40 yuan/tonne grade differential), significantly higher than local corn prices, lacking a price advantage for substitution. Therefore, for the corn market, this type of publicly released rice does not fall into the substitute category. On May 29, 2026, the first round of定向 sales for over-storage rice this year commenced. The grain consisted of minimum purchase price rice from the 2021 crop year and earlier, termed over-storage rice, with a starting price of 1,500 yuan/tonne (Heilongjiang Grade 3 grain, 40 yuan/tonne grade differential). This is far lower than the starting price for publicly released 2022 Heilongjiang rice (2,555 yuan/tonne), giving it a comparative price advantage over corn and placing it within the corn market substitute category.

Although over-storage rice inventory has exceeded its storage period, its定向 release does not occur every year. The market was concerned about releases in both 2024 and 2025, but rumors ultimately did not materialize. In contrast, releases occurred in 2022 and 2023. The 2022 over-storage rice release started in March and ended in late September, with 25 auctions held weekly. The weekly release volume increased from 1 million tonnes to 2 million tonnes, and the starting price rose from 1,500 yuan/tonne to 1,600-1,700 yuan/tonne. Sales rates were good initially but declined later as corn prices weakened at the time, with some auctions failing entirely. However, corn prices rose sharply in Q4 2022, leading to good trade profits for over-storage rice sold later that year, boosting participation enthusiasm for the following year's auctions. The 2023 over-storage rice release lasted only two months (August and September), with a total of 9 auctions. The main weekly release volume was 2 million tonnes, with starting prices 100 yuan/tonne higher than the previous year at 1,700-1,800 yuan/tonne. Sales were good, especially火爆 later on, with strong抢拍意愿 and rising premiums. However, after the over-storage rice auctions concluded, it coincided with the new corn marketing season and the first large arrivals of imported Brazilian corn. Corn prices fell significantly, and over-storage rice, having been sold at high prices, lost its substitution advantage. Participants suffered severe losses, and buyers were reluctant to take delivery. Authorities issued repeated催促出库 notices, with many buyers delaying delivery until the following year. Possibly due to delivery reluctance and falling corn prices, there were no over-storage rice releases in 2024. Although rumors persisted in 2025, the timing was repeatedly delayed, and releases ultimately did not occur. In 2026, with corn prices strengthening, rumors about over-storage rice releases were also delayed but finally materialized with a release in late May.

The first batch of over-storage rice in 2026 was定向 released on May 29,全部 from Heilongjiang. The floor price was 1,500 yuan/tonne for Grade 3 and 1,540 yuan/tonne for Grade 2. The release volume was 1 million tonnes, with actual sales of 634,000 tonnes, an average成交价 of 1,522 yuan/tonne, a sales rate of 63.4%, and an overall average premium of 7 yuan/tonne.

Although the floor price for over-storage rice is low, it cannot directly substitute for corn; it requires processing to remove the husk. As it is定向 released, to prevent它 from entering the口粮 market, enterprises must粗加工 it into a rough rice-corn mixture before sale. This rough rice mixture can be roughly calculated as a direct corn substitute. Calculating based on the over-storage rice starting price of 1,500 yuan/tonne (ignoring premiums),加上出库费 of 30 yuan/tonne,升贴水 of 45 yuan/tonne, and到厂运费 of 30 yuan/tonne, the到厂成本 is 1,605 yuan/tonne. Using a rice出糙率 of 79% (typical for粳稻谷: Grade 1 ≥81.0%, Grade 2 ≥79.0%, Grade 3 ≥77.0%; we use 79% here), the rough rice mixture consists of approximately 85% brown rice and 15% corn. Using a Heilongjiang掺混玉米 price of 2,240 yuan/tonne and a加工费 of 60 yuan/tonne, the theoretical掺混及加工成本 for the rough rice mixture is 2,123 yuan/tonne. Processing enterprises participate in auctions to resell for profit. Assuming a常规 profit of 50 yuan/tonne for the seller, the seller's price for the rough rice mixture would be 2,173 yuan/tonne. Adding the buyer's资金成本 of 20 yuan/tonne and subtracting稻壳收益 of 30 yuan/tonne, the buyer's cost for the rough rice mixture is 2,163 yuan/tonne. Adding运输到北方港口运费 of 150 yuan/tonne, the集港成本 for the rough rice mixture is 2,313 yuan/tonne. This is 10-15 yuan/tonne lower than the current price for corn (14.5% moisture, 700+ test weight) at Jinzhou Port, representing a slight price advantage. However, if calculated based on the Grade 2 over-storage rice floor price, the advantage基本 disappears. No release information for brown rice was published in the first week of June. In the second week, a plan was announced to auction 1,000,199 tonnes of feed-use rice, still from Heilongjiang, from the 2019-2021 production years. Market rumors suggest releases will occur every two weeks in two categories: one定向 for深加工, every two weeks, 500,000 tonnes per release, totaling 2 million tonnes; the other定向 for feed use, every two weeks, 1 million tonnes per release, totaling 8 million tonnes; combined 10 million tonnes. Based on出糙率, the estimated玉米替代量 is around 8 million tonnes. From an annual corn cycle perspective, an additional 8 million tonnes of corn substitute has a relatively limited impact.

Conclusion

To date, policy grain releases related to corn for the 2025/26 marketing year include minimum purchase price wheat (roughly substituting for 3.65 million tonnes of corn, though actual feed substitution is lower due to flour enterprise participation), imported corn (5.3 million tonnes sold as of June 10, 2026, with annual sales projected at 10 million tonnes), and over-storage rice (estimated to substitute for around 8 million tonnes of corn). Although the volume of each policy grain release is not massive, under this多元 supply scenario, incremental additions to the corn market's supply side are accumulating, weighing on阶段性 corn prices. Currently, new wheat is in the harvest and marketing phase, with prices weakening and the emergence of even lower-priced sprouted wheat (estimated volume around 9 million tonnes), which encroaches on corn's feed demand. Coupled with集中到货 of imported grains and releases of over-storage rice and imported corn, the overall corn market supply outlook remains偏向宽松. Therefore, it is expected to continue weighing on近期 corn现货 price expectations. However, the expectations for the various supply-side increments mentioned above are already in the process of being realized. Whether policy grains or substitutes (new wheat, sprouted wheat, imported grains), the futures market has already traded on these factors. Thus, following the previous decline, we believe there is relatively limited room for further downside in futures prices. The release cost of over-storage rice can serve as a reference for a policy底. Furthermore, the planting cost for new-season corn is also接近 the集港成本 of the rough rice mixture, providing dual support below corn prices.过度看空 is not advised. In the short to medium term, futures may still exhibit偏弱 expectations following现货节奏. However, from a medium to long-term perspective, it is recommended to关注 the逢低布局多单 opportunities that may arise after盘面回调 during this fundamentally bearish phase. Subsequent focus should be on the实质性利空 impact of new wheat上市 on the corn market and any potential changes in the release节奏 of policy grains.