Singapore has maintained its economic growth forecast for 2026, following a stronger-than-expected first-quarter performance, while cautioning about escalating risks from Middle East conflicts.

Revised data released on Monday showed that the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of this year grew by 6.0% year-on-year, surpassing the preliminary estimate. The initial estimate released in April indicated a growth rate of 4.6%, which was slower than the 5.7% growth recorded in the fourth quarter.

The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) stated that first-quarter GDP growth was driven by robust performance in the wholesale trade, manufacturing, and financial and insurance sectors. The ministry has kept its growth forecast for Singapore this year at a range of 2.0% to 4.0%. This forecast was previously revised upward in February from a range of 1.0%-3.0% to 2.0%-4.0%.

MTI noted that the global economic outlook has deteriorated since then, with the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. The ministry added that a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting energy supplies and other critical inputs such as fertilizers and aluminum, has triggered a surge in global energy and other input costs.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, Singapore's first-quarter GDP grew by 1.0% quarter-on-quarter. This contrasts with the previous preliminary estimate of a 0.3% contraction and follows a 1.3% quarter-on-quarter growth in the fourth quarter.