On August 24, the latest market data presented a clear picture: gold, having gained more than five percent last week, is holding near three-month highs, with both spot and futures prices maintaining a firm tone. Following the rapid rally, MHMarkets noted that price strength does not necessarily imply that all underlying drivers are improving in tandem.
The support is coming primarily from two directions. The long-dated bond buyback program has prompted the market to reassess the dollar's purchasing power and fiscal costs, drawing additional attention to gold as a store of value. In MHMarkets' view, one side is the demand for value preservation, while the other is the market's repricing of future interest rate and exchange rate paths. During the same period, the dollar index showed limited movement, while silver and platinum diverged in their trajectories, indicating that the precious metals complex is not uniformly trading on the same logic.
When it comes to gold, spot buying, derivatives positioning, and cross-market capital flows should be examined separately to determine whether the rally is being driven by long-term allocation or short-term trading. From a cyclical perspective, sharp advances are often accompanied by increased turnover. If pullbacks remain limited and trading volume stays active, it suggests the market retains support; conversely, volatility could be triggered by concentrated selling at higher levels.
Additionally, the pace of change in fund positioning and physical demand is not aligned, and these two data sets need to be observed on different time scales. Relevant judgments will require confirmation through multiple sample periods. Going forward, if real yields decline and fund inflows improve, gold prices may retain their support; however, if the dollar rebounds, short-term fluctuations could widen accordingly.
MHMarkets analyzed that upcoming data will gradually replace sentiment as the core pricing driver, and the market must retain scenario space for a potential dollar rebound or shifts in yields.