US Treasuries Pull Back as Mid-to-Long End Leads Declines, Giving Back Prior Day's Buyback-Driven Gains

Deep News
Aug 21

Profit-taking swept across the US Treasury market on Thursday, with the belly and long end of the curve bearing the brunt of the selling pressure. The pullback came a day after a surprise announcement from the Treasury Department regarding adjustments to its buyback schedule for 10- to 30-year notes had fueled a sharp rally. By just past 3 pm in New York, short-end yields had climbed roughly 2 basis points, while the 7- to 10-year segment saw increases of about 4.5 basis points.

The long bond yield rose approximately 4 basis points on the day to 5.23%, recovering about half of the ground lost in the previous session. These moves saw both the 2s10s and 2s30s spreads widen by roughly 2 basis points intraday, with US yields also outperforming those of UK gilts and German Bunds.

The 30-year yield at one point surged more than 7 basis points to 5.27%, returning to levels seen before Wednesday's Treasury announcement. The upward momentum eased somewhat after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated in an interview that the buyback program could exceed $4 billion and that the department possesses multiple tools to support the market. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly weighed in, noting that the Fed's credibility is not at risk, while St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem echoed that sentiment and added that weakness at the long end reflects a contest for capital as AI-related construction advances. Higher crude prices also contributed to the yield pressure, with WTI climbing 2.3% in late New York trading after rising as much as 3.7% earlier.

Demand proved robust at Thursday's $8 billion reopening of the 30-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security. The high yield came in about 1.8 basis points through the pre-auction level, with solid bidding metrics across the board. Indirect bidders took down a record-high allocation, while primary dealers received an all-time low share. The roughly 3% real yield, the highest since 2008, provided strong support for the sale. Separately, three companies are slated to raise a combined $3.25 billion in the US investment-grade corporate bond market on Thursday.

At the 4:10 pm close in New York, the 2-year yield was up 2.1 basis points at 4.1833%, the 5-year yield gained 4.3 basis points to 4.3851%, and the 10-year yield rose 5.4 basis points to 4.7001%. The 30-year yield climbed 5.6 basis points to 5.2466%, while the 5s30s spread widened about 1.3 basis points to 85.97 basis points. The 2s10s spread steepened by roughly 3.5 basis points to settle at 51.47 basis points.

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